WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KOPPU (16W)

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:34 am

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7N 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
132.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. A
102223Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE LLCC WAS WELL CONSOLIDATED
AND HAD UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
TO THE NORTH APPEAR TO BE GRADIENT INDUCED AND HAVE NOT BEGUN TO
WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS BETWEEN 40
AND 60 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC, CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 129E WEST SLOWLY.

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:40 am

ABPW10 PGTW 111430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/111430Z-120600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111352ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 111200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (MUJIGAE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 111500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
128.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE LLCC. A 110914Z QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALED THAT THE LLCC WAS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST, AND
HAD UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW 15
TO 20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING THE ONLY OUTFLOW FOR THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 155.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LLCC, WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WRAP
TOWARD THE CENTER. AN 110733Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF
TURNING WITH AND ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS, HELPING TO
ENHANCE OUTFLOW, AND CREATE A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE AREA HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS A FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 4:16 pm

Looking good

#5 Postby **beaufort12** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:30 pm

Two areas of note in the WPAC, plus Mujigae. Looks like we'll have quite a few days of activity to follow.

http://typhoon2000.ph/t2kgraphsat.gif

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:31 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 127E WNW SLOWLY.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:11 pm

WTPN22 PGTW 120200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 127.1E TO 19.4N 119.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
125.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN
112212Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
CONVERGING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112157Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SHOWED AN IMPROVED, STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER. STRONGER UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLANK ARE
SHOWN BUT ARE SUSPECT SINCE THEY ARE SURROUNDED BY RAINFLAGGED DATA
AND A SHIP OBSERVATION (A8ME4) WEST OF THE CENTER AT 111900Z
INDICATED 22 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 130200Z.//
NNNN

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 6:14 am

Looking great and it appears to be making landfall

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 6:14 am

Hong Kong:

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 6:16 am

Philippines:

#11 Postby **beaufort12** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 8:09 am

The tracks of the recent storms in this area have taken a more westerly track as shown in the track issued in the Philippines. But hey, the differences between these two forecasts are not that large, and as we say, don't focus on the center of the cone. So, something to watch here over the next two or three days.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 8:30 am

That's a lot of rain

#13 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 10:11 am

Luzon is getting a hammering right now and I expect there will be stories in the news regarding bad flooding in that area.

I expect this thing to really get going once it clears Luzon and the shear which is lurking not to far away. Given the relatively unfavourable conditions it's experienced over the last 24hrs it's impressive how much deep convection has persisted.

I expect a TS soon and watch out southern China!

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 10:59 am

Impressive system

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 12, 2009 10:38 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120216ZSEP2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.6N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.1N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.0N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 120.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PGTW
120200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 6:04 am

WTPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 02
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.8N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.1N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.5N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.8N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 118.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 16W HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CIRCULATION DISCUSSED
IN THE 13/0300Z PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE (WDPN32 PGTW 130300)
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A CIRCULATION TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION SEEN IN MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS CIRCULATION IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF LUZON. TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS
MAINLAND CHINA, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING NEAR TAU 72 AND DISSIPATION
OVER LAND NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:00 am

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 03
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.4N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.9N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.2N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.8N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 117.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT UNDERGONE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR
TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:24 am

ZCZC 239
WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 19.0N 118.4E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 19.9N 115.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

#19 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 10:17 am

Wild storm swept through Hong Kong around 4 hours ago, over 13,000 lightning strikes detected in 2 hours. It knocked out one of the Observatory's weather stations on Cheng Chau island. Seems like 16W is now charging NW quickly. Standby Signal 1 now issued in Hong Kong.

Here's video I shot from my apartment - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fE7qxmzBvqk

RattleMan · #20 Postby **RattleMan** » Sun Sep 13, 2009 2:23 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0915 KOPPU (0915) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 19.7N 116.5E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 20.7N 113.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 22.2N 109.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161800UTC 23.1N 106.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

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