EPAC : INVEST 98E

[cycloneye]

Close to Mexican Coast.

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invest_ep982009.invest
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200909170232
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2009, DB, O, 2009091700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982009
EP, 98, 2009091700, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1017W, 20, 0, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

A look at 98E

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED JUST SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

806
ABPZ20 KNHC 171138
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

282
WHXX01 KMIA 171305
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC THU SEP 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982009) 20090917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090917 1200 090918 0000 090918 1200 090919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 101.7W 17.4N 103.2W 18.4N 104.6W 19.5N 105.9W
BAMD 16.7N 101.7W 17.3N 102.8W 18.2N 104.1W 19.4N 105.3W
BAMM 16.7N 101.7W 17.3N 102.9W 18.3N 104.2W 19.5N 105.5W
LBAR 16.7N 101.7W 16.9N 102.4W 17.6N 103.7W 18.6N 105.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090919 1200 090920 1200 090921 1200 090922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 107.2W 22.2N 109.8W 23.3N 111.6W 24.2N 113.1W
BAMD 20.6N 106.3W 23.2N 107.3W 26.1N 104.7W 29.8N 97.9W
BAMM 20.6N 106.6W 22.8N 108.4W 24.7N 108.7W 26.3N 108.0W
LBAR 20.2N 107.1W 23.9N 109.3W 27.6N 108.5W 30.1N 102.8W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 53KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 101.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 101.7W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 101.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[clfenwi]

04Z TWD remarks:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES W-SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA FOR OVER 24 HOURS UNDER
THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION BLOSSOMED LAST NIGHT AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER. AT 17/2100 UTC...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
SMALL TIGHT LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL EMERGING FROM THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION NEAR 16.2N 103.1W. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL
NW DIRECTION...PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST AND TOWARD THE S
END OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

490
ABPZ20 KNHC 181131
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Small LLC that may become a depression in a few days

[HURAKAN]

182
ABPZ20 KNHC 181732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HurricaneRobert]

If this doesn't make it there's some very strong convection in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[HURAKAN]

910
ABPZ20 KNHC 182340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

EP, 98, 2009091900, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1074W, 25, 1006, DB

[HURAKAN]

648
WHXX01 KMIA 190037
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982009) 20090919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090919 0000 090919 1200 090920 0000 090920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 107.4W 20.0N 109.3W 21.3N 111.2W 22.5N 113.0W
BAMD 18.4N 107.4W 19.7N 109.3W 21.4N 111.0W 23.2N 112.2W
BAMM 18.4N 107.4W 19.8N 109.3W 21.3N 111.1W 22.6N 112.7W
LBAR 18.4N 107.4W 20.0N 109.0W 21.7N 110.3W 23.6N 111.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090921 0000 090922 0000 090923 0000 090924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 114.5W 24.4N 117.2W 24.8N 120.0W 24.9N 122.7W
BAMD 25.3N 112.5W 27.8N 107.6W 30.9N 96.4W 37.5N 91.9W
BAMM 24.0N 113.9W 25.7N 115.4W 26.9N 116.9W 28.3N 116.8W
LBAR 25.0N 111.5W 26.4N 109.5W 27.6N 105.0W 31.3N 101.5W
SHIP 36KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 36KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 107.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 105.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 103.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 18N107W...ABOUT
190 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO...MOVING W-NW TO NW NEAR
10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL BUT FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EARLIER ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS
ALSO INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE MAINLY IN ABOUT 100 NM
WIDE BAND EXTENDING FROM 16N106W TO 19N108W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

026
ABPZ20 KNHC 190516
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[clfenwi]

ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009

...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




19/1200 UTC 19.8N 108.4W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

640
ABPZ20 KNHC 191732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MARTY...LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN