ATL: Invest 98L

[Gustywind]

From SSD...close to TD status
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/0600 UTC 13.0N 41.3W T2.0/2.0 98L

[Gustywind]

Just a window of opportunity to support something, shoud it be sufficient?! not sure...but right now winds are abating just on its path.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N40W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 5 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND
44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. THE CHANCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N16W
TO 24N27W TO 19N40W TO 13N46W IS ABOUT 220 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LOW CENTER.$$
MT

[Gustywind]

From NRL site:
20090919.1045.98LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-132N-419W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... p&TYPE=vis

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[gatorcane]

code red:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE [/b]HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Blown Away]

The TPC doesn't seem to bring 98L fishing so far.

[jedsshed]

Although all of the projected paths so far for Invest 98L take it well north of the Lesser Antilles, it’s way too early for us in the NE Caribbean to consider ourselves safe. A good example was Erika. The five day path had her within 6 miles of Anguilla, later projected to go well north, and when all was said and done, Erika passed a few hundred miles south of us! In other words, slow moving systems give forecasters a fit.

We don’t need a hurricane, but we certainly need some rain here. Since January we’ve had 12.2 inches of rain. That is 10.8 inches below normal for the year to date. The water trucks are running up and down the roads replenishing people’s dry cisterns, so I am sure many people here are praying for rain……Please just in moderation!

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 98
Latest
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 09/19/09 13.3N 41.8W 25 1008 Invest

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[Gustywind]

Although all of the projected paths so far for Invest 98L take it well north of the Lesser Antilles, it’s way too early for us in the NE Caribbean to consider ourselves safe. A good example was Erika. The five day path had her within 6 miles of Anguilla, later projected to go well north, and when all was said and done, Erika passed a few hundred miles south of us! In other words, slow moving systems give forecasters a fit.

We don’t need a hurricane, but we certainly need some rain here. Since January we’ve had 12.2 inches of rain. That is 10.8 inches below normal for the year to date. The water trucks are running up and down the roads replenishing people’s dry cisterns, so I am sure many people here are praying for rain……Please just in moderation!

Good post my friend, excellent reasoning Erika has crossed Guadeloupe while your island were even previously a bit north given the path prediction... We should be vigilant us in the islands. We pray for you to have moderate amounts of water us too even if Erika brings nice amounts of water.
Don't forget to go to our tent if you have observations, etc. from your island. Moreover you could be informed by our friends from the others islands of the Carib viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=

[Gustywind]

From http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html

Invest #98
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 13.3N Lon: 41.8W Moving: W 8 mph (7 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1200 SAT SEP 19 13.3N 41.8W W 8 (7) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
98L more organized
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown of modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical repression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

[tanguy97]

why stormpulse is giving the center at 08 AM 11.4 n 44 w instead of 13.2n 41.9w ?

[Sanibel]

This one has the curl, but 2009 isn't conducive to formation.


It's rare you'll see Sanibel side with the naysayers, but this year so far should be lesson enough.


The season could be over.

[Gustywind]

why stormpulse is giving the center at 08 AM 11.4 n 44 w instead of 13.2n 41.9w ?

Tanguy could you provide us the link where you see that please? Tkanks we appreciate. Whereas there's already a thread open on 98L Tanguy. Many members can bring you an answer i tkink! I don't know if it's necessary to open another thread? I'm not moderator but it could be locked...Let's wait and see. Concerning 98L i'm very doubtfull about that but who knows?! Don't forget that all these positions are not OFFICIAL coordinates (SSD, NRL, etc.)...you should refer to NHC in the next TWD at 205PM to have the official position. Anyway we will glad to have your link, tkanks for your remark Tanguy.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Orange Code

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE