ATL: Invest 98L

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Last given http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html
Invest #98
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 12.8N Lon: 39.9W Moving: W 8 mph (7 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1800 FRI SEP 18 12.8N 39.9W W 8 (7) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
1200 FRI SEP 18 12.9N 39.2W W 7 (6) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)

[Ivanhater]

Looking better

[HURAKAN]

712
ABNT20 KNHC 182339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[masaji79]

Is it me, or is there two circulation centers. Maybe my eyes are just playing tricks on me? That's what is seems like on the visible loops anyways.

[Macrocane]

Is it me, or is there two circulation centers. Maybe my eyes are just playing tricks on me? That's what is seems like on the visible loops anyways.

There may be two, it's not the first time this season that a system has more than one, but if there are two one of them could become the dominant and the disturbance will have a better chance to develop.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/2345 UTC 13.2N 40.6W T1.0/1.0 98L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[HURAKAN]

AL, 98, 2009091900, , BEST, 0, 131N, 404W, 25, 1008

[HURAKAN]

The LLC is in decent shape

[tolakram]

Hmmm.

Floater recently moved but there appears to be decent inflow into blob #2.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Sanibel]

Strange co-location with this one.

[HURAKAN]

Again looking good at night

[Derek Ortt]

Floater added at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html under the Invest_10 sector

[HURAKAN]

497
ABNT20 KNHC 190517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N40W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 5 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND
39W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. THE CHANCE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N20W TO 24N29W TO 19N40W TO 16N44W IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 19, 2009 4:56 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

In the Atlantic, the remnants of Fred were located around 500 miles northeast of the Bahamas; it was continuing to move slowly west-northwest.

Limited showers activity was occurring at this time, and upper-level winds are currently not favorable for any tropical development.

Further east, a low pressure area was located halfway between Africa and the Leeward islands.

Showers and thunderstorms were occurring with this system, as it moves west-northwest. It will continue to be monitored, but tropical development is not expected at this time.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest on 98L

Invest #98
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 13.2N Lon: 41.9W Moving: W 17 mph (15 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
0600 SAT SEP 19 13.2N 41.9W W 17 (15) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
0000 SAT SEP 19 13.1N 40.4W WNW 6 (5) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)