ATL: Invest 98L

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wyq614
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ATL: Invest 98L

#1 Postby wyq614 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:12 am

Image

Initial position: 13.3N 38.5W...

BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

18/0600 UTC 13.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 INVEST -- Atlantic
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leanne_uk
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#2 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 18, 2009 4:36 am

what amount of shear is this storm likely to encounter?
Would be great to finally see this storm become something after nearly a week but who knows......
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Re:

#3 Postby alan1961 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:10 am

leanne_uk wrote:what amount of shear is this storm likely to encounter?
Would be great to finally see this storm become something after nearly a week but who knows......

Dont get your hopes up with this one Leanne, dry air to its north although its close enough to pick some moisture up from the ITCZ, wind shear not too bad at the moment but we'll just have to see how it goes. :wink:
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#4 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:10 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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#5 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:14 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...AND
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 17N.

...DISCUSSION...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N38W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. THE CHANCE OF THE 13N38W MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.
$$
MT
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:17 am

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:50 am

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:58 am

Image

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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:02 am

18/0600 UTC 13.0N 38.5W T1.5/1.5 INVEST
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#10 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:07 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N38W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. THE CHANCE OF THE 13N38W MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

$$
MT
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#11 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:26 am

Image

Interresting, 98L has it own page...
Image
Image
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:49 am

488
ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Image
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:11 am

Image

If Danny and Erika were classified, this system may not be that far off.
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tanguy97
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#14 Postby tanguy97 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:12 am

NHC is giving this system a low chance to devellop into a TC . Why they give it is an orange code and not a yellow one ?
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Re:

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:14 am

tanguy97 wrote:NHC is giving this system a low chance to devellop into a TC . Why they give it is an orange code and not a yellow one ?


I guess that based on the organization of the system and the "marginal" conditions, they decided to go orange. Like I said, this system may not be that far off compared to Danny and Erika. Of course, these ones had the benefit of RECON.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L

#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:23 am

Lots of dry air digging south on the western side has separated the LLC from the convection. Not sure about the orange "upgrade", as it now appears to be struggling more. It'll be fighting that dry air all the way across the Atlantic. Just another struggling disturbance.
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tanguy97
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#17 Postby tanguy97 » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:24 am

It' seems that this system is heading west for now, is something in frnt of it will force it to go N of W ?
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L

#18 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:27 am

Just another struggling disturbance


Yeehaw! :) This has been a pleasant, albeit boring year. :sun:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L

#19 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:50 am

otowntiger wrote:
Just another struggling disturbance


Yeehaw! :) This has been a pleasant, albeit boring year. :sun:

Maybe...that's seems to be the "rule" this year for the moment? no??? :ggreen: But that's depens where you live otowtiger.
Remember... it's not so boring for the EC for sure, Guadeloupe has already experienced 2 direct impacts from Ana and Erika...hopefully pretty "weak" systems but as landfalls, something to meditate my friend :double: .
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#20 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 18, 2009 8:08 am

Latest on 98L:
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1145 UTC 13.4N 39.0W T1.0/1.5 98L
:rarrow: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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