Might be going down.
Or not...:
EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA (17E)
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
00 UTC Best track increases winds to 50kts.
EP, 17, 2009092400, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1189W, 50, 997, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
EP, 17, 2009092400, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1189W, 50, 997, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
It has such a tiny core. Though rainbands have less convection than earlier today, the CDO has improved.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NORA HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE PROMINENT BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE. UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS MOTIONS AROUND NORA SUGGEST THAT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MAY BE A BIT SEPARATED. NONETHELESS...DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 55 KT. A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...THE INTENSITY MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOW INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF...
SHOWS NORA BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE STORM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUT IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS NOT
READILY APPARENT HOW MUCH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. NOW THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NO LONGER
INDICATE AS MUCH STRENGTHENING...THEIR TRACKS DO NOT SHOW A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW AGREEING
ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.0N 119.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 120.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 121.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 123.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NORA HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE PROMINENT BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE. UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS MOTIONS AROUND NORA SUGGEST THAT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MAY BE A BIT SEPARATED. NONETHELESS...DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 55 KT. A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...THE INTENSITY MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOW INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF...
SHOWS NORA BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE STORM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUT IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS NOT
READILY APPARENT HOW MUCH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. NOW THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NO LONGER
INDICATE AS MUCH STRENGTHENING...THEIR TRACKS DO NOT SHOW A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW AGREEING
ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.0N 119.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 120.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 121.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 123.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.0N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORA DECREASED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO THE GOES-WEST ECLIPSE
PERIOD. THIS LIKELY OCCURRED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...ALONG WITH A
DRYING TREND IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SHIPS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL-T
NUMBERS WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0 AT 0600 UTC...AND ON THIS BASIS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT NORA HAS
PEAKED. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NORA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND BE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE FIXES AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY PRIOR TO
THE ECLIPSE...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04 WAS
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. AS NORA WEAKENS...
THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 3 OR 4 DAYS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF NORA TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THEN IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5
THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 0150 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 17.2N 119.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 121.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 131.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORA DECREASED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO THE GOES-WEST ECLIPSE
PERIOD. THIS LIKELY OCCURRED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...ALONG WITH A
DRYING TREND IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SHIPS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL-T
NUMBERS WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0 AT 0600 UTC...AND ON THIS BASIS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT NORA HAS
PEAKED. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NORA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND BE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
BASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE FIXES AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY PRIOR TO
THE ECLIPSE...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04 WAS
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. AS NORA WEAKENS...
THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 3 OR 4 DAYS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF NORA TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THEN IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5
THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 0150 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 17.2N 119.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 121.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.6N 131.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
NORA IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT TRMM DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. USING A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT.
NORA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IN 36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.
MICROWAVE FIXES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...RESULTING IN A MORE
CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 290/4. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TURNING MORE
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS
OF NORA IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 17.3N 120.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 120.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 122.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
NORA IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RECENT TRMM DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. USING A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 45 KT.
NORA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IN 36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.
MICROWAVE FIXES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...RESULTING IN A MORE
CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 290/4. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TURNING MORE
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS
OF NORA IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 17.3N 120.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 120.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 122.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN
APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
NORA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. NORA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NORA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.4N 121.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 123.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 126.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
WTPZ42 KNHC 242032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN
APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
NORA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. NORA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
NORA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 17.4N 121.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.3N 123.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.3N 124.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 126.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM NORA (17E)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORA IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LAST LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATED BETWEEN 2300 AND 0000 UTC. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND
THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM UW-CIMSS IS T2.0.
NORA IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COULD STILL OCCUR SINCE NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST
CALLS FOR NORA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON AND DISSIPATE BY DAY
4...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT. EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH
OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON DAY 3 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
CAUSED BY A COLD FRONT WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.4N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 127.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORA IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LAST LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATED BETWEEN 2300 AND 0000 UTC. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND
THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM UW-CIMSS IS T2.0.
NORA IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COULD STILL OCCUR SINCE NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST
CALLS FOR NORA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON AND DISSIPATE BY DAY
4...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT. EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH
OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON DAY 3 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
CAUSED BY A COLD FRONT WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.4N 121.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.3N 122.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 127.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
NORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC
THURSDAY...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C.
HOWEVER...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0500 UTC...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
GFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
NORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC
THURSDAY...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C.
HOWEVER...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0500 UTC...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
GFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 17:01:15 N Lon : 124:01:55 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1010.8mb/ 27.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.7 1.7 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -61.3C Cloud Region Temp : -49.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
On the comeback trail???
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 17:01:15 N Lon : 124:01:55 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1010.8mb/ 27.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.7 1.7 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -61.3C Cloud Region Temp : -49.7C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
On the comeback trail???
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA (17E)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORA...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 330 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORA...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 330 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Kingarabian
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