EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA (17E)

[cycloneye]

If this develops,the name will be Nora.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992009.invest
FSTDA
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040
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200909211811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2009, DB, O, 2009092118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992009
EP, 99, 2009092118, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1127W, 20, 0, DB
EP, 99, 2009092100, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1089W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2009092106, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1102W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2009092112, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1115W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 99, 2009092118, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1127W, 20, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 211829
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC MON SEP 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992009) 20090921 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090921 1800 090922 0600 090922 1800 090923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 112.7W 13.4N 114.3W 13.8N 115.7W 14.3N 117.1W
BAMD 12.9N 112.7W 13.3N 115.0W 13.8N 117.1W 14.3N 118.6W
BAMM 12.9N 112.7W 13.3N 114.6W 13.8N 116.4W 14.4N 117.9W
LBAR 12.9N 112.7W 13.4N 115.1W 14.1N 117.5W 14.9N 119.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090923 1800 090924 1800 090925 1800 090926 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 118.6W 16.2N 121.4W 17.1N 124.4W 19.1N 127.9W
BAMD 14.7N 119.7W 15.1N 121.7W 15.6N 123.4W 17.7N 124.3W
BAMM 15.0N 119.1W 16.1N 121.2W 17.1N 123.4W 20.1N 125.2W
LBAR 15.9N 121.7W 18.0N 124.6W 20.5N 126.7W 27.4N 129.6W
SHIP 41KTS 50KTS 52KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 52KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 112.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 110.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 107.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

ABPZ20 KNHC 212352
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2009

CORRECTED

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the next depression is around the corner

[HurricaneRobert]

This one's had nice outflow since it was south of Mexico. Once again, though, GFDL and HWRF have wildly different predictions for its intensity.

[HURAKAN]

RED CODE

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Convection needs to consolidate some more

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 221430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 114.2W TO 18.0N 121.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 115.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231430Z.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...
BUT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT YET ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED ON THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[CrazyC83]

TD 17-E in three hours it looks like...

[CrazyC83]

EP, 99, 2009092300, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1155W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Still a disturbance but with 30 kt winds.

[cycloneye]

23/0000 UTC 15.7N 115.6W T2.0/2.0 99E -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

We have TD 17-E.

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invest_RENUMBER_ep992009_ep172009.ren
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200909230136
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[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 230144
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0144 UTC WED SEP 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN (EP172009) 20090923 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090923 0000 090923 1200 090924 0000 090924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 115.5W 16.6N 116.8W 17.3N 118.2W 18.1N 120.0W
BAMD 15.5N 115.5W 16.5N 116.7W 17.5N 117.4W 18.5N 118.0W
BAMM 15.5N 115.5W 16.4N 116.8W 17.3N 117.9W 18.1N 119.0W
LBAR 15.5N 115.5W 16.5N 116.7W 17.9N 117.7W 19.0N 118.6W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090925 0000 090926 0000 090927 0000 090928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 121.8W 19.9N 126.1W 21.9N 131.0W 23.8N 134.1W
BAMD 19.7N 118.4W 23.0N 118.7W 27.0N 117.8W 30.0N 115.2W
BAMM 19.1N 120.3W 21.3N 123.1W 24.2N 126.3W 27.6N 128.5W
LBAR 20.2N 119.4W 23.1N 121.4W 27.0N 123.5W 30.0N 122.8W
SHIP 44KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 44KTS 33KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 115.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 114.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 113.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[CrazyC83]

It might be hard-pressed to become Nora though.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 17, 2009092300, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1155W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,