WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KETSANA (17W/ONDOY)

[HURAKAN]

Looks good

[Typhoon10]

Maybe am confused, but isnt this EPAC as looks just off the East Coast rather than near the Philippines?

[StormingB81]

Maybe am confused, but isnt this EPAC as looks just off the East Coast rather than near the Philippines?

It is off the east coast of the Philippines whic his in WPAC. Anything west of 180 is WPAC anything east of that is EPAC.

[Typhoon10]

Oh, sorry, I was looking at the map at the top under Forum Rules and thought was referring to one of those.

Am a newbie as you can guess!

[Typhoon10]

Does it look like will develop into a TS or TC, head towards South China Sea or move up towards Taiwan?

[StormingB81]

The Phillipine Sight for Typhoons says it should eb a storm within 24-48 hours. He shall see. There is also another batch of storms behind this one so it can get active again quick. everything this year has been hitting tawain and south and east of japan so i guess those..lol

[StormingB81]

JMA is now calling this a Depression

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[beaufort12]

Seems to be getting its act together. Looks like this will probably stick to a westward track at least for the next couple days.

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231400Z-240600ZSEP2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
133.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE 230902Z QUIKSCAT PASS. A
230837Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CURVED INFLOW INTO THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2N 109.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING ABOUT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR
AND ADD AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

JMA is now calling this a Depression

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

That's is not 96W. JMA is calling 96W a low pressure

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 16N 112E WNW SLOWLY.

[StormingB81]

Sorry was looking at the wrong one.

[Typhoon10]

PAGASA has named it ONDOY. They track it will travel West, North-West towards HK

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 240430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 129.8E TO 15.4N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 129.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250430Z.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 16N 130E WEST SLOWLY.

[Dave C]

It's moving west at 14 knts and moving west slowly! Thats a pretty flexible system, maybe double jointed.

[HURAKAN]

24/0830 UTC 13.3N 127.3E T2.0/2.0 96W -- West Pacific

Dvorak says 30 knots

[HURAKAN]

It's moving west at 14 knts and moving west slowly! Thats a pretty flexible system, maybe double jointed.

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

JTWC appears right about the movement unless 14 knots is considered slow, then both are right!!!

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND BUILD
AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
IS ELONGATED IN AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, AND IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A 241201Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES VERY STRONG WESTERLIES (20+ KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH OF AN
ELONGATED AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSESSED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. BROAD EQUATORWARD VENTING IS LIKELY TO
BE THE MAIN EXHAUST MECHANISM AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

[HURAKAN]

96W disappeared from NRL, so an upgrade is likely underway