WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.1N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.3N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.4N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 111.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF HUE,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
WITH LESS THAN 36 HOURS REMAINING OVER OPEN WATER, THE TYPHOON IS
EXPECTED TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY 15 KNOTS SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD,
INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 KNOT SYSTEM. A 25 TO 30 NM RAGGED EYE HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH JGSM AND EGRR
ERRONEOUSLY STALLING THE SYSTEM ONCE IT COMES ASHORE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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