WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

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WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 24, 2009 4:47 pm

Wow,the Western Pacific is very busy now with yet another disturbance.This one is located SSE of GUAM.

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 99W

#2 Postby theavocado » Thu Sep 24, 2009 6:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow,the Western Pacific is very busy now with yet another disturbance.This one is located SSE of GUAM and looks good.


I think it's the result of the MJO. OLR charts peg the westerly wind burst right around 160E, in the vicinity of all the activity. I wonder how things would be progressing if 15W hadn't sucked all the energy out of the region.
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#3 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Sep 24, 2009 10:55 pm

I think here in a ocuple of days we can have 3 named storms at once....crazy
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#4 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:05 am

There are a lot of Invests on the NRL page for the Wpac. The most I have seen in a long time.
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#5 Postby Cookie » Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:05 pm

whats the record for the most invests at once in one basin?
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 99W

#6 Postby P.K. » Sun Sep 27, 2009 9:24 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 146E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2009 6:42 pm

First Warning by JTWC

WTPN33 PGTW 272100
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 9.7N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 9.8N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 9.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 9.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.6N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.5N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 145.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
445 NM EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272023Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT TD 19W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 22N 150E, AND DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH AND TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE AND POORLY INITIALIZED WITH THE
SYSTEM DEPICTED TOO WEAK. THE LIMITED GUIDANCE FROM NOGAPS AND WBAR
PLUS ADDITIONAL MODEL FIELDS DEPICTING THE STRONG STR SUPPORT THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 27, 2009 7:09 pm

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Looks good
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2009 7:10 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
903 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009

PMZ171-281400-
YAP-
903 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING INTO YAP STATE...

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 455 MILES EAST
OF YAP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD YAP
AND MIGHT BECOME A TROPICAL STORM NEAR YAP...BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO FAIS...YAP AND
ULITHI. IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SQUALLS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE WEST AFFECTING FARAULEP...WOLEAI AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS.
RESIDENTS IN YAP STATE SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH THE LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#10 Postby Iune » Sun Sep 27, 2009 7:16 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2009 7:32 pm

WTPQ33 PGUM 280007
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192009
1000 AM CHST MON SEP 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W NEWLY FORMED IN EASTERN YAP STATE...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI...FARAULEP AND
FAIS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU. RESIDENTS OF
THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W.

AT 900 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.3 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
325 MILES EAST OF FAIS
390 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
490 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
540 MILES EAST OF NGULU.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 900 AM CHST POSITION...9.7N DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

EDSON/WILLIAMS/CHAN
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#12 Postby StormingB81 » Sun Sep 27, 2009 7:40 pm

This will be interseting come friday when there paths will make these storms almost together. I guess come the weekend Japan may have to watch this storm.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#13 Postby beaufort12 » Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:18 pm

In my opinion the people that need to worry about this storm this weekend are in the Philippines, not Japan. High pressure is firmly in place and expected to remain so. The weekend is far off and I hope this thing does recurve before then, but I don't see it happening.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#14 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:37 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

Quite a complex situation evolving out there right now and it will be fascinating to see what transpires.

I really cannot see the current JTWC situation coming to fuitition - two 75kts TYs within 5 degrees of each other?!?

As has just been said the Philippines and Taiwan need to watch these closely. The latest ECMWF run shows 19W slamming into Taiwan with what I think is the current POOR Invest 90W following on behind.

NRL still showing Invest 99W which = 19W and Invest 98W which = 18W
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 27, 2009 9:05 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 146E WNW SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 27, 2009 9:06 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 9.4N 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 9.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 9.5N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 9.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 9.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.8N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 144.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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#17 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Sep 28, 2009 12:41 am

Looking at the radar lately this storm is starting to blow up and look pretty good. gonna be interesting to see what this is going to do and how strong it will get.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 28, 2009 5:40 am

WTPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 9.2N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 9.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 9.7N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 10.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.1N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 143.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TD 19W IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT, ITS POOR ORGANIZATION AND ITS LIMITED HORIZONTAL
EXTENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON VORTEX TRACKERS FROM WBAR,
EGRR, UKMO AND THE EXTENDED MODEL FIELDS FROM ECMWF. THE FORECAST IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY PROXIMITY TO TD 18W, WITH SEVERAL NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOWING INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH
TD 19W BECOMING THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TD
18W AND TD 19W IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODEL
RESOLUTION, VICE AN ACTUAL INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THE
LATTER (NO INTERACTION BETWEEN TDS 18W AND 19W). THUS, THE TRACK FOR
TD 19W IS TO THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 48. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO REACH
TYPHOON STRENGTH AFTER TAU 72. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE ARE
LIMITED NUMERICAL VORTEX TRACKERS AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM,
INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND
290900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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JTE50
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (19W)

#19 Postby JTE50 » Mon Sep 28, 2009 6:54 am

A shot from Tumon Bay Guam when a rain band came through this evening:

Image
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HURAKAN
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 28, 2009 7:06 am

Image

Looking good
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