WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[Typhoon Hunter]

It was actually upgraded to 50kts STS at the 300300z intermediate update:

"WTPQ21 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0917 PARMA (0917) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 09.5N 136.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 12.2N 132.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 020000UTC 14.5N 130.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 030000UTC 17.1N 127.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT ="

Taiwan and Philippines are in real danger from this storm.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I just see the local weather bulletin in Cebu that Parma will make a landfall in Surigao Islands Philippines this evening or tomorrow at 140kph. Well I am sad on this and I got to prepare, the last time , a typhoon cross Surigao that was in 1990 when a category 5 typhoon Mike (Ruping) made a landfall in the same islands at 175 + kph and is a disaster for Cebu.

Manila got hit by Ketsana very badly and I hope this one will not.

I got to prepare for this, and I hope it will divert its path.

That is incorrect information from your local weather bureau. According to official forecasts from JMA Parma is not currently forecasts to make landfall anywhere in the next 72 hours.

[P.K.]

its rare that JMA skips a category?

I didn't see the other advisory this morning but a 20kt increase in 3 hours or 25kts in 6 hours is pretty good going!

[cycloneye]

30/0830 UTC 10.3N 134.7E T5.5/5.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

[Typhoon Hunter]

IMO,there has to be only one agency in the Western Pacific basin like NHC does in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific to then make the forecasts,not having different ones.Now we have to wait for the Japanese to upgrade to Typhoon (And change title of thread) while the system keeps getting stronger with a pinhole eye.JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) did the right call at 0300z.

Do you realise how many countries and territories are affect by TCs in Wpac?!? Would the single agency you propose have to translate each advisory into ten different languages? If you don't like the advisories from certain agencies then ignore them but I would have thought the more brains analysing and forecasting typhoons the better.

It's very simple. JMA is RSMC of Wpac so the thread title should be changed when they upgrade/downgrade TCs.

[P.K.]

Up to T5.0 from the JMA now.

[wxman57]

Here's a visible satellite from 0530Z, last one before dark. Nice pinhole eye forming:



Closer-up shot:

[somethingfunny]

Wow, I hadn't realized it was such a small storm. Regardles of the CDO's size, that long tail will create more flooding problems for the Philippines. Earlier someone asked if this will be more of a rain event or a wind event for the Philippines and I have to answer (although I am not a professional and you should always place more faith in a professional's opinion) that unless the track forecast changes a bit which it has been known to do, this will mainly be a rain event in the Phillipines.

[cycloneye]

JMA=75kts

TY 0917 (Parma)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 30 September 2009
<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N10°30'(10.5°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 240km(130NM)

[cebuboy]

I just see the local weather bulletin in Cebu that Parma will make a landfall in Surigao Islands Philippines this evening or tomorrow at 140kph. Well I am sad on this and I got to prepare, the last time , a typhoon cross Surigao that was in 1990 when a category 5 typhoon Mike (Ruping) made a landfall in the same islands at 175 + kph and is a disaster for Cebu.

Manila got hit by Ketsana very badly and I hope this one will not.

I got to prepare for this, and I hope it will divert its path.

That is incorrect information from your local weather bureau. According to official forecasts from JMA Parma is not currently forecasts to make landfall anywhere in the next 72 hours.

OK I see, thanks for the update.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500z warning=75kts

WTPN33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 10.6N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.1N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 133.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 1500Z warning.

WDPN33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL. A 300848Z SSMIS
PASS SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING IS LOCATED AROUND A SMALL EYE, WITH
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN POR-
TION OF TY 19W FROM THE WEST. PARMA IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO AMPLIFY THE CURRENT INTENSITY INCREASES SEEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. TRACK SPEED HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PARMA AND IS CLOSING THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE TWO.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A SINGLE TRACK SOLUTION THROUGH TAU 72. TY 19W WILL TRACK NORTH-
WESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE REMNANTS OF TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TOWARDS TY 19W AND BE ABSORBED BY TAU 48, BUT WILL NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE INTENSITY OR TRACK FOR TY 19W. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR TY 19W
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH AVNI
AND GFNI SHOWING A TRACK AGROSS NORTHERN LUZON. NGPI AND EGR2 SHOW A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS ECMWF SHOWS TY 19W
TRACKING TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A CLOSER
APPROACH TO LUZON WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT AND STARTS TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AFTER TAU 72, AND THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD A WESTWARD EXTENSION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN.
TY 19W WILL SLOW AROUND TAU 72 AS IT DRIVES INTO THE EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 973
WTPQ21 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 10.5N 134.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 13.5N 130.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 021200UTC 16.5N 127.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 031200UTC 19.1N 126.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

MM5s have shifted and now indicate a significant threat to the Philippines

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[wxman57]

Looks stronger than 75 kts to me.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like a T 6.0 or a 6.5 to me

[Derek Ortt]

MM5 GFS shows landfall in the Philippines as a powerful typhoon. Intensity of 100-105KT may be underdoing it since it started from the raw GFS initial fields

[wxman57]

looks more like a T 6.0 or a 6.5 to me

100-110kts, maybe now? Possibly a little less, as they do use a 10-min wind average out there. I'd agree that NE Luzon could be hit.

[HURAKAN]

Beware of the small eyes