WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

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#361 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:24 am

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Making a comeback
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#362 Postby breeze » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:35 pm

And folks in the Philippines are saying, "Goodbye, good riddance, and don't come back!"
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#363 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:56 pm

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WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 046
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.3N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.0N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.2N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 119.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS
THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLOWLY
TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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#364 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:35 pm

ZCZC 431
WTPQ51 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 17.4N 121.5E POOR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 17.4N 119.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 110000UTC 17.4N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120000UTC 17.7N 113.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 130000UTC 17.6N 112.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
120HF 140000UTC 17.1N 109.5E 260NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT =
NNNN


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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#365 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:54 pm

New Philippine floods kill dozens

More than 90 people have been killed by flooding and landslides triggered by heavy rain in the northern Philippines, reports say.

Local officials said at least 69 people were killed in Benguet province alone.

The country is still dealing with the devastating aftermath of Typhoons Ketsana and Parma.

There were reports that some of the latest landslides were caused by water that was released from dams in the wake of Typhoon Parma.

Typhoon Ketsana left at least 300 people dead and hundreds of thousands stranded, while Typhoon Parma caused further damage just over a week later.

Benguet provincial governor Nestor Fongwan told the AFP news agency that 69 people in the province had been killed across five districts.

Another 17 people were reported to have died in the city of Baguio and several more fatalities occurred in Mountain province.

"The rains in this area are unprecedented," said Glen Rabonza, executive officer of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

"We are stretched, no doubt, but we are responding in the best way we can," he told AFP.

The NDCC said thousands of people had been stranded on rooftops and on higher ground.

UN appeal

The provincial governor of Pangasinan province, Amado Espino, told reporters that water released by the San Roque dam had flooded towns.

"The dam is supposed to be for flood control but now it is so filled it is like it is not there. The water just rushes right through from the mountains to Pangasinan."

Mr Espino said strong currents and continuing rain were making it hard to reach and rescue people in flooded areas.

The province's Vice Governor, Marlyn Premicias, told the Associated Press she had been receiving text messages from people needing to be rescued.

"Eastern Pangasinan has become one big river," she said.

Lt Col Ernesto Torres of the NDCC told Reuters news agency that 30,000 people had been evacuated in the province and 60-80% of the land was flooded.

The UN earlier appealed for $74m (£47m) to help victims of storms in the Philippines.

It says about 500,000 people have fled their homes and are still living in emergency shelters and has warned of an urgent need for food, water, sanitation facilities, emergency shelter and health care provisions.

Typhoon Ketsana hit Manila and surrounding areas on 26 September, causing the worst flooding in the capital in more than four decades.

Eight days later, Parma blew across the country's mountainous north, bringing more rain. Meteorologists say the storm is still lingering off the coast of the Philippines.

Have you been affected by the landslides in northern Philippines? Send us your comments, pictures and videos.

A selection of your comments may be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below.

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Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 298221.stm
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#366 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:56 am

ZCZC 910
WTPQ51 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 17.9N 119.7E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 17.7N 117.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 110600UTC 17.8N 114.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120600UTC 17.9N 110.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 130600UTC 17.1N 109.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
120HF 140600UTC 15.6N 107.5E 260NM 70%
MOVE SW SLOWLY =
NNNN


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#367 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 09, 2009 6:54 am

When ketsana came, we considered it the worst flood in the history of the country....Then came parma.....Who would have thought that history can be rewritten in a span of a few weeks.....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#368 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 09, 2009 9:30 am

WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.6N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.1N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.4N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.8N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 118.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#369 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Oct 09, 2009 10:22 am

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#370 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:37 pm

Well the indestructible PARMA has risen from the ashes again and is heading westward towards Hainan and Vietnam. Although the JTWC forecasts it to only get up to 40 knots, I'm suspicious. I also feel a little :oops: , because after defending them on their forecast for MELOR (on which they did really well), they have come out with a statement that I can't figure out or verify in their latest prognostic reasoning for PARMA. Here it is (excerpted):

WDPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 48//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
B. LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND TRACK PARMA GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THIS WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK SPEED IS ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENTAMONG THE MEMBERS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR) THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND A DRAMATIC DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT NEAR TAU 48. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PROHIBIT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2, AS SOME OF THE MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING DECREASED OCEANIC HEAT.

DRAMATIC DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT?!! I've attached two charts showing SSTs in the area. Obviously there is no significant drop in the sea surface temps there. Now I know they said "ocean heat content", and so far I have not been able to find a current OHC chart for this area that shows the 20C isotherm down to 100 meters and that's what I'd really like to see. But still, I'm confused. Are they referring to upwelling? If they are, the core of PARMA's circulation never sat over the area it is over now, and the current surface SST numbers would never read 28 or 29C if PARMA had sucked thermal energy out of that area. So what are they talking about? Does anybody know? Unless I'm missing something, I'm really disappointed they put that in there.

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#371 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 09, 2009 8:41 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#372 Postby theavocado » Sat Oct 10, 2009 12:04 am

ozonepete wrote:DRAMATIC DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT?!! I've attached two charts showing SSTs in the area. Obviously there is no significant drop in the sea surface temps there. Now I know they said "ocean heat content", and so far I have not been able to find a current OHC chart for this area that shows the 20C isotherm down to 100 meters and that's what I'd really like to see. But still, I'm confused. Are they referring to upwelling? If they are, the core of PARMA's circulation never sat over the area it is over now, and the current surface SST numbers would never read 28 or 29C if PARMA had sucked thermal energy out of that area. So what are they talking about? Does anybody know? Unless I'm missing something, I'm really disappointed they put that in there.


It might not be dramatic, but there is a drop. I'm wary of the forecast for different reasons: ocean heat content is not a big player on a moderate to fast moving weak TS. Maybe a slower mover, or something that will have a little more Eckman pumping like a typhoon. I think for the weaker systems, SST is all you need to worry about.

I do, however, agree with the intensity forecast for other reasons. The TEJ is still in the area and shear will slowly increase the further west it goes. (Granted, I said the same about Ketsana, and it ended up being a typhoon).

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#373 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:08 am

ZCZC 155
WTPQ21 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 18.3N 117.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 18.8N 114.2E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#374 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:52 am

Death Toll rises to 540

PANGASINAN, Philippines -The death toll from two weeks of unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on Friday after landslides consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.

At least 181 people were killed in a series of rain-triggered landslides overnight Thursday and on Friday in the Cordillera region, local officials reported.

Meanwhile, the downstream farming plains of Central Luzon were inundated with waters that reached two storeys high after dams in the mountains could not hold the phenomenal amount of water that has fallen on the region.

"The rains in this area are unprecedented," the executive officer of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, Glenn Rabonza, told Agence France-Presse.

"We are stretched, no doubt, but we are responding in the best way we can."

The crisis showed no signs of easing as tropical storm Pepeng (international codename: Parma), responsible for the past week of rains, continued to hover just off Luzon.

In Metro Manila, nearly 300,000 homeless survivors from Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) were packed into evacuation camps following record rains on September 26 that killed at least 337 people.

US troops helping out in the capital extended their relief work to the north on Friday, dispatching helicopters and other rescue equipment, the Filipino military said.

The US embassy announced an extra two million dollars in aid for the Parma victims on top of money and materials donated for the Ondoy operations, while UN humanitarian chief John Holmes is to begin a two-day visit to the country Monday to review relief efforts, the world body said.

The worst of the overnight landslides appeared to be in remote Benguet province, where 120 people were confirmed killed in five towns, said provincial governor Nestor Fongwan.

Another 38 people were confirmed killed in the neighboring mountain resort of Baguio, officials there said.

Across all of the north, the confirmed death toll from the landslides was 181, on top of the 25 people killed earlier by Pepeng.

In the farming region of Pangasinan province to the southwest of the provinces where the landslides occurred, thousands of people were stranded on rooftops in dangerously similar scenes to those in Manila a fortnight ago.

Days of rain from Parma forced authorities to open the gates on five dams, sending water cascading through dozens of towns in Pangasinan, which has a population of 2.5 million people.

"A lot of places cannot be reached by our rubber boats because the current is too strong due to the waters released by San Roque dam," Pangasinan governor Amado Espino said.

"The dam is supposed to be for flood control but now it is so filled it is like it is not there. The water just rushes right through from the mountains to Pangasinan."

The disaster council's Rabonza said about 60 percent of Pangasinan, including about 30 towns, were flooded with waters reaching as high as the second floor of buildings.

In the town of Rosales, neck-high waters swallowed up houses, vehicles, rice fields and even a large shopping mall.

Desperate local officials made urgent pleas for rubber boats and helicopters to rescue those stranded by the floods.

Parma has been hanging over the northern Philippines since initially hitting as a typhoon on October 3.

Parma hit the Philippines exactly one week after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rains in more than four decades on Manila.

The government has been overwhelmed by the crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands of people in Manila and other parts of Luzon into makeshift evacuation centres after losing their homes to the floods.

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#375 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 10, 2009 9:23 am

JMA latest Warning.

TS 0917 (Parma)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 10 October 2009
<Analyses at 10/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°20'(18.3°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 170km(90NM)


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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#376 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:29 am

WTPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 052
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.7N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.0N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.2N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 116.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#377 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:15 pm

theavocado wrote:It might not be dramatic, but there is a drop. I'm wary of the forecast for different reasons: ocean heat content is not a big player on a moderate to fast moving weak TS. Maybe a slower mover, or something that will have a little more Eckman pumping like a typhoon. I think for the weaker systems, SST is all you need to worry about.

I do, however, agree with the intensity forecast for other reasons. The TEJ is still in the area and shear will slowly increase the further west it goes. (Granted, I said the same about Ketsana, and it ended up being a typhoon).

Image


Thanks for the info. That's the way I've always understood it - OHC only comes into play after the TS stage, since you need a strong storm to tap into a deep heat source.
BTW, where did you get that chart? That's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks again. :)

P.S. And nice call on Parma. Even though some impressive convection is firing again, the shear is killing it right now.
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#378 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:32 pm

Image

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#379 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:37 pm

ZCZC 887
WTPQ21 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 18.1N 115.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 18.6N 111.8E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
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ozonepete
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#380 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:02 pm

I agree, Hurakan. Convection getting over LLC more. Boy, this storm won't quit!
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