WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#381 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:32 pm

ozonepete wrote:I agree, Hurakan. Convection getting over LLC more. Boy, this storm won't quit!


Image

Mostly covered now
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#382 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:33 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.0N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.3N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.3N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 114.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ALSO, EROSION PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK, HAS SUBSIDED-INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 101200Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
HAINAN SHOWING MAXIMUM OF 15 KNOTS AT 250 MB AND BELOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. TD PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERI-
PHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FROM TAU 12 TO
TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO HAINAN. AFTER TAU 48, TD 19W
WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN THEN MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI,
VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND
112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#383 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:58 pm

Don't expect the wind to be that strong, but the convection is really impressive. Parma may have one more prodigious rain event to unleash. Looks for sure on Viet Nam and possibly Hainan as well.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#384 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 10, 2009 11:13 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.7N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.4N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.2N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.5N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 113.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA)//
WARNING NR 54//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) PARMA HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ALSO, EROSION PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK,
HAS SUBSIDED, INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 101200Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM HAINAN SHOWING
MAXIMUM OF 15 KNOTS AT 250 MB AND BELOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION
OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
B. TD PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT - LOW VWS AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO HAINAN. AFTER
TAU 36, TD 19W WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN THEN MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HANOI AND DISSIPATE. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS IN A TIGHTLY-PACKED SET OF MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. RIGHT
OUTLIERS INCLUDE WBAR AND GFS.//
NNNN
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#385 Postby erg123 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 2:33 am

Guangdong Province start typhoonⅣLevel emergency response
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#386 Postby erg123 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 2:37 am

Image
From the Hong Kong 500 kilometers :ggreen:
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#387 Postby erg123 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 2:39 am

热带气旋公报
2009-10-11 10时 预报:许映龙 张玲 签发:何立富
中央气象台 11 日10时发布台风橙色警报 :
今年第 17 号热带风暴“芭玛”的中心 11 日 10 时位于海南省万宁市东偏南方约 390 公里的南海中部海面上,就是北纬 17.8 度、东经 114.0 度,中心附近最大风力有 8 级( 18 米 / 秒),中心最低气压为 994 百帕。预计,“芭玛”将以每小时 15 公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,逐渐向我国海南东部到广东西南部一带沿海靠近,并将于 12 日下午到 13 日凌晨在海南陵水到广东湛江一带沿海登陆,登陆前强度还将略有加强
受“芭玛”和冷空气的共同影响, 11 日中午到12日中午,东海大部、台湾海峡、巴士海峡、巴林塘海峡、南海中北部海域、琼州海峡、台湾以东洋面、台湾沿海、福建中南部沿海、广东沿海、海南东部沿海将有 6-7 级大风,“芭玛”中心经过的附近海域和地区的风力有 8-9 级,阵风可达 9-10 级; 广东西南部、海南中东部等地有大到暴雨,海南东部的部分地区有大暴雨
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#388 Postby erg123 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 2:42 am

Hong Kong's wind power simply is not now strong
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#389 Postby theavocado » Sun Oct 11, 2009 3:46 am

ozonepete wrote:BTW, where did you get that chart? That's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks again. :)

P.S. And nice call on Parma. Even though some impressive convection is firing again, the shear is killing it right now.


Thanks, we'll see if it stays weak.

I got the product from the Colorado State CIRA project.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#390 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:26 am

Parma is now the longest lasting TS in the basin since Kujira in 2003.

WTPQ21 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 17.7N 113.0E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 18.2N 110.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 18.6N 107.8E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#391 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:44 am

WTPN33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.2N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.4N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.4N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 112.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 110145Z ASCAT PASS AND THE 102302Z
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THAT THE LLCC IS SYMMETRIC WITH
35- TO 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 110600Z SATCON ESTIMATE WHICH HAS
A DVORAK T NUMBER OF 2.7 AND A WIND ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. AS THE
CONVECTION IS STILL REDEVELOPING, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES RANGE ONLY FROM T2.0 TO T2.5. TS PARMA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
SUSTAIN IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 24, PARMA WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER HAINAN AND THE
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER VIETNAM
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#392 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 3:57 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.8N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.6N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.8N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES (T3.O), RJTD (T2.0) AND PGTW (T2.O).
TS PARMA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN HAINAN BY TAU 12, EXIT THE
ISLAND BY TAU 24, THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM, SOUTH OF HANOI,
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS ON THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN PACK AND GFDN ON
THE FAR LEFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#393 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:31 pm

Image

Landfall
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#394 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:33 pm

:uarrow: Again!
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#395 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:33 pm

ZCZC 106
WTPQ21 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 19.1N 111.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 19.5N 108.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140000UTC 19.4N 106.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 150000UTC 19.2N 105.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN


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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#396 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:20 pm

It's Hainan's turn for PARMA's prodigious rains.

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#397 Postby wyq614 » Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:30 pm

CMA claims that PARMA has made landfall in Wanning County, Hainan Province, additionally, PARMA brought 284.2mm of rain in 24 hours in the Xisha (or Paracel) Islands
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#398 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 11, 2009 9:47 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.6N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.0N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.4N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.5N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 110.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM EAST OF
NORTHERN HAINAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#399 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:04 am

Vietnam seems to have it bad too......talk about unlucky(Philippines & vietnam)
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#400 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:37 pm

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Unless it turns back to the east, the end is finally very near for Parma
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