WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

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#401 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:37 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 060
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.9N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.9N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.8N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 109.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH
OF THE CITY OF HAINAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z
AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#402 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:51 pm

60 warnings already :eek: I think Parma is the longest lived tropical cycloen this year, isn't it?
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#403 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:53 pm

Macrocane wrote:60 warnings already :eek: I think Parma is the longest lived tropical cycloen this year, isn't it?


Not sure but it only has to last as a TS until 06Z tomorrow to be the longest lasting TS in the basin since Paka in 1997. Oh and if it lasts until 21Z tomorrow the longest since Wayne in 1986.

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 19.8N 109.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 19.6N 107.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141800UTC 19.2N 105.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#404 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:21 pm

Warning #62 from JTWC:

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 062
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.1N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.0N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 108.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN
TOWARDS THE VIETNAM COAST. 19W SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION
UPON MOVING BACK OVER WATER, AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AND
REINTESNIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#405 Postby Iune » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:25 pm

P.K. wrote:
Macrocane wrote:60 warnings already :eek: I think Parma is the longest lived tropical cycloen this year, isn't it?


Not sure but it only has to last as a TS until 06Z tomorrow to be the longest lasting TS in the basin since Paka in 1997. Oh and if it lasts until 21Z tomorrow the longest since Wayne in 1986.

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 19.8N 109.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 19.6N 107.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141800UTC 19.2N 105.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

According to Wikipedia, Wayne had 86 JTWC warnings.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#406 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:13 pm

JTWC Upgrades once again to Tropical Storm.

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 062
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.1N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.0N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 108.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W
(PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN
TOWARDS THE VIETNAM COAST. 19W SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION
UPON MOVING BACK OVER WATER, AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN SOME ORGANIZATION BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO REINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEPARTAK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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#407 Postby subtropicaltyphoon » Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:49 am

hello! i am Cantonese.Shall we make a friend? 359090398 is my QQ No.
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Re:

#408 Postby wyq614 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:55 am

subtropicaltyphoon wrote:hello! i am Cantonese.Shall we make a friend? 359090398 is my QQ No.


You think the Americans also have QQ??
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#409 Postby Cookie » Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:56 am

what is QQ?
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#410 Postby beaufort12 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:40 am

There is Nothing like QQ in America.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#411 Postby beaufort12 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 8:47 am

There is Nothing like QQ in America.
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#412 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:28 am

Image

Image

Looks stronger than 35 knots.
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#413 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:29 am

13/0830 UTC 20.3N 107.9E T3.5/3.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

Dvorak says 55 knots
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#414 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:37 am

This isn't the mid-lattitudes. I can't recall seeing an eye like that on a 60mph tropical storm in the tropics. If it were just off the Florida coast as opposed to Vietnam I could guarantee it'd be upgraded to a hurricane right now.
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#415 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:06 am

is JT serious with their discussion? To quote McEnroe

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 09prog.txt

That is called a banding eye! Satellite estimates are higher than they suggest. I do not understand at all where they come up with 35KT
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#416 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 13, 2009 11:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:is JT serious with their discussion? To quote McEnroe

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 09prog.txt

That is called a banding eye! Satellite estimates are higher than they suggest. I do not understand at all where they come up with 35KT


I noticed that this morning too and my eyes bugged. That's just plain wrong. Unfortunately, they are helping to prove some of the things you've said about them. This is just bizarre.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#417 Postby RattleMan » Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:27 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 131812

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA)

B. 13/1730Z

C. 20.4N

D. 107.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CONVECTION WRAPPED A .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5.
MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT. BREAKING CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO REEVALUATION OF PREVIOUS INTENSITIES AND CONSIDERATION
FOR MICROWAVE EYE.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0930Z 20.3N 108.0E SSMS


SMITH
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#418 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:26 pm

JTWC increases intensity to 55kts.

WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 065
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 107.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. ALTHOUGH
SOME CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A
SINGLE BAND, WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131153Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE STRONGLY
SUGGESTS AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST SURROUNDING THE
LLCC. THE CENTER HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGED FROM HAINAN ISLAND IT REDEVELOPED
VERY QUICKLY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND MODEL GUIDANCE
WERE SLOW TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
REFLECT THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE DOES NOT
REFLECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A
CORRECTION TO AN INCREASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 19W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS TS 19W TRACKS
INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
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#419 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:51 pm

:uarrow: Too late!!!
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM PARMA (19W)

#420 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:06 pm

This advisory makes it the longest lasting TS since Wayne in 1986. However that did drop to a TD for 36 hours in the middle. To get a longer lasting system that remained at TS intensity or above then you need to go back to Tess in 1972 from doing a quick search at 15.5 days! Beyond that is Rita also in 1972 at 19.0 days as a TS. The only other one I can find back to the start of the JMA BT in 1951 is Opal in 1967 at 18.25 days.

By 00Z Parma will have been a TS or above for 15.0 days.

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 20.3N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 19.8N 106.1E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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