WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[HURAKAN]

Another with a little eye

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of interaction Melor and Parma will have as very strong typhoons in terms of strengh and the tracks of both systems.

[supercane]

Starting to prepare again in Guam. At least it's a little easier this time because everything is already fixed for the storm. Currently expecting tropical storm winds on Saturday, maybe a little stronger depending on the track. Any ideas on what others think we can expect in Guam? There's a typhoon watch up for Rota which is only about 40 miles north of northern Guam where I live.

I posted the latest local Statement from the GUAM NWS four posts above this one.

plus also see the NWS Guam zone and/or point forecasts. CPA (closet point of approach) per latest 01/0300Z JTWC forecast would be at 03/08Z = Saturday, October 3 at 6 pm. Per latest NWS Tiyan point forecast for Andersen Air Force Base:

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 15 to 18 mph increasing to between 23 and 26 mph. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Very windy, with a west northwest wind 28 to 31 mph increasing to between 37 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy and very windy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

(Chose AAFB because given that the storm will probably past north of Guam, highest winds would most likely be on the north side of the island.) Although the above is appropriately vague, the hourly chart at http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=146&map.y=220&site=gum&FcstType=graphical for AAFB suggest possible TS wind gusts by Saturday morning and winds approaching sustained TS force by the afternoon with higher gusts. Unfortunately, no wind probability product is available yet. Stay tuned to the NWS/JTWC, as the situation can change rapidly.

supercane

[dowdavek]

Thanks

[supercane]

000
WTPQ34 PGUM 010301
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
200 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

...MELOR NOW A TYPHOON...

...TYPHOON MELOR IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
520 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
545 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...13.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 152.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON/EDSON

[supercane]

Guys, is there any realtime website that shows the position of all Storms in WPAC with there projected directions but clearly shows place, islands, etc?

Depends on what you mean by clearly. Two possible sources are:
Tropical Cyclones, Worldwide: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/ (pick basin of interest, for instance, the W Pac: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/nwp.latest.gif
WunderMap Interactive on Weather Underground. example: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=13.9&lon=144.0&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0

Hope this helps.

supercane

[supercane]

NWS Guam/JTWC/CPHC just released wind probability maps at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/select_probwinds.php?stormid=WP202009&stormN=TYPHOON_MELOR_(20W)_. Unfortunately I cannot find a tabular product like NHC's, and they have not been loaded into the NDFD for a closer inspection. Also, on the unofficial side, can look at calculated strike probabilities from the solar Hawaii site at http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/StrikeProb/Archive/andersenafb.html (NB not the same thing as the previous).

supercane

[Cyclenall]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.

I estimate the intensity is now 95 knots for Melor. It should become a "major" typhoon any hour now.

[Typhoon10]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of interaction Melor and Parma will have as very strong typhoons in terms of strengh and the tracks of both systems.

Yes, as a amateur what does happen when 2 typhoons get close? Do they combine to become a super super typhoon or do they affect each other, ie reducing strength?

Experts can you advise and give examples?

[theavocado]

Yes, as a amateur what does happen when 2 typhoons get close? Do they combine to become a super super typhoon or do they affect each other, ie reducing strength?

Fujiwhara!

Many things can happen, they can pinwheel about each other, they can merge, or one can sling-shot the other. Models and forecasters both handle this very poorly.

In 1995, Humberto and Iris did this in the Atlantic, and there are more examples in the Pacific than you can shake a stick at.

[wxmann_91]

It will be very interesting to see what kind of interaction Melor and Parma will have as very strong typhoons in terms of strengh and the tracks of both systems.

Yes, as a amateur what does happen when 2 typhoons get close? Do they combine to become a super super typhoon or do they affect each other, ie reducing strength?

Experts can you advise and give examples?

Two TC's that come close enough often undergo what's called a Fujiwhara interaction, where the two start rotating around each other. Sometimes the two can spiral into each other when they're both about the same size/intensity, but more often the smaller rotates around the larger one (and can get absorbed into the larger one).

Examples: Felicia/Enrique in EPAC earlier this year,
this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgwA6NkA ... B13B1C286&
Kirsten and Ione, EPAC, 1976

[supercane]

330
WTPQ34 PGUM 010600
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
500 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

..TYPHOON MELOR IS INTENSIFYING

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 400 PM CHST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 435 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
460 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
470 MILES EAST OF TINIAN
490 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
520 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. MOVEMENT ALONG THIS
TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CHST POSITION...13.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 152.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

[supercane]

349
WTPQ84 PGUM 010548 CCA
HLSPQ4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MELOR LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
346 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

CORRECTED HEADLINE

..TYPHOON MELOR HAS BEGUN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING


AREAS AFFECTED

THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECTED
LOCATIONS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

WATCHES/WARNINGS

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

STORM INFORMATION

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
490 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
520 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
545 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MELOR IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TRACKING MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
MELOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY...BECOMING A TYPHOON BEFORE
REACHING THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...MELOR IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND THE
RADIUS OF DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ONSET
OF DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON GUAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF
NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY
SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND
BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY
AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.



NEXT UPDATE

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-020600-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
346 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

..TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT


..NEW INFORMATION

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GUAM
AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE
MADE OF LIGHT MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.



..WINDS

AS TROPICAL STORM MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING.

..STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE

STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

..OTHER STORM EFFECTS

2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.



GUZ002>004-PMZ152>154-020600-
/X.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
346 PM CHST THU OCT 1 2009

..TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT


..NEW INFORMATION

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...AND WATERS
OUT TO 40 NM.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR OTHER STRUCTURE MADE OF LIGHT
MATERIALS...CONSIDER MOVING TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT
OWNERS NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR
CRAFT.

..WINDS

AS TROPICAL STORM MELOR MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

..STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF
13 TO 17 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

..OTHER STORM EFFECTS

4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

[supercane]

Interesting headline BTW from NWS Guam in their Typhoon statement that "..TYPHOON MELOR HAS BEGUN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ". Visible indeed looks impressive, but this is not yet reflected in the CIMSS ADT (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/adt/odt20W.html).

supercane

[HURAKAN]

WTPN34 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.4N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 14.9N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.4N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.2N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 152.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TY 20W HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE
LAST WARNING, INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY 40 KNOTS, REACHING ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 96, CROSSING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS NORTH OF
SAIPAN NEAR TAU 48 AS A SUPER TYPHOON. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (AFTER
TAU 96), THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE STR, ALLOWING RECURVATURE TO BEGIN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR
TY 20W IS NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME UNCERTAINTIES AS THE FORECAST FOR
STY 19W TO THE WEST, AS TY 20W REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO
CYCLONES (LESS THAN 1000 NM SEPARATION AT TAU 120) INTRODUCES SOME
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TRACK FORECAST AT TAU 120 AND BEYOND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 663
WTPQ22 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 13.9N 152.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 15.0N 150.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 030600UTC 16.8N 146.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 040600UTC 18.7N 142.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

01/0830 UTC 14.0N 152.3E T5.5/5.5 MELOR -- West Pacific

[apocalypt-flyer]

Major player in the game.

Extremely BULLISH with that 145 knots prediction down the line but the SSTs are very high and upper level winds seem to be favourable, too.

[cycloneye]

JMA latest warning=80kts

TY 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 1 October 2009
<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E152°00'(152.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km