WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[liu884]

I think it's about 130kts now.

[Infdidoll]

What do you make of this?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html

I thought Parma was supposed to be going S-SW...any chance of it being pulled NE by Melor? Fujiwara? That image gives me chills in a bad way.

[HURAKAN]

Big eye coming

[Dianmu]

The eye will bigger than 100KM ,I guess

[Dianmu]

New picture

[liu884]

对LS的贴图无语。MELOR挂了就会变成红叉。

[HURAKAN]

对LS的贴图无语。MELOR挂了就会变成红叉。

If anyone is going to write in a language that is not English, please, also write the English translation.

Thank you!

[somethingfunny]

Big eye coming

This is the most exciting part. There's no way Melor could pull off a better ERC than Choi-Wan did is there?

[Derek Ortt]

pobably will run back forecasts on Melor

I wonder if this EWRC was as predictable as that of Choi-Wan, whcih was predicted very well by numerous high-resolution models

[Infdidoll]

JTWC Warning #26

WTPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.4N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.4N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 37.1N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 42.5N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 133.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 206
WTPQ22 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 20.0N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 24.5N 130.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 071200UTC 29.3N 132.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 081200UTC 36.1N 137.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[nimrodel]

I’ve been away for a couple of days so trying to catch up. But I’m a bit confused as to where it is supposed to be hitting. The JMA and Wunderground has it tracking further in land near Kyoto but JTWC and TSR has it still tracking toward Tokyo. My friend is now in Tokyo and is panicking more than I am.

But I cannot tell you what a comfort this place is, even if it’s not always good news and I don’t always know exactly what you are talking about At least I can get update information and opinions and pass it on to my friend.

[jconsor]

I'd bank on the JMA track being much more correct than the JTWC. JMA is very close to the ECMWF, which for 8 straight runs has shown a landfall in Japan, mainly on the Kii peninsula south of Kyoto. The ECMWF is a superior performer to the other models, and other models (UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS) have trended west in the past few runs.

[ozonepete]

I’ve been away for a couple of days so trying to catch up. But I’m a bit confused as to where it is supposed to be hitting. The JMA and Wunderground has it tracking further in land near Kyoto but JTWC and TSR has it still tracking toward Tokyo. My friend is now in Tokyo and is panicking more than I am.

But I cannot tell you what a comfort this place is, even if it’s not always good news and I don’t always know exactly what you are talking about At least I can get update information and opinions and pass it on to my friend.

There's cause for concern, but definitely not panic. Wunderground now agrees with the JTWC. Only the JMA moves it over Kyoto, leaving it the only outlier among agency forecasts. The models have been quite consistent with taking it near or over Tokyo, BUT AS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. It looks like it will be a weak cat 2 or a cat 1. While that's nothing to sneeze at, it is not nearly as dangerous as a cat 4 or 5. For a cat 1 or cat 2, any sturdy structure will be safe, so your friend should be fine.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

New eye taking over

[Derek Ortt]

I do not believe that Weather Underground produces their own forecasts. They just go with the forecast from some agency

That said, the JMA usually is superior to JTWC

[ozonepete]

I'd bank on the JMA track being much more correct than the JTWC. JMA is very close to the ECMWF, which for 8 straight runs has shown a landfall in Japan, mainly on the Kii peninsula south of Kyoto. The ECMWF is a superior performer to the other models, and other models (UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS) have trended west in the past few runs.

Yeah, I saw the model trends too. And I agree with you on the ECMWF. So the track could be a little more west. But the storm will be coming up parallel to the coast and thus the right front quadrant is the one to worry about. Since it's been following the JTWC track very closely so far, and is already recurving and didn't get further west than they forecasted, the chances are lessening that it would come in well SW of Tokyo.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

I do not believe that Weather Underground produces their own forecasts. They just go with the forecast from some agency

That said, the JMA usually is superior to JTWC

Good point about WU - I have no idea how they produce those. I never even bother looking at their forecasts, to be honest.

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC warning=130kts

WTPN34 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 26.1N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 29.1N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 40.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 48.2N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 132.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED ITS WELL-DEFINED EYE, SYMMETRY AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION INDICATES A SLIGHT FLATTENING
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK, A POSSIBLE INDICATION OF THE ONSET OF STRONG
WEDSTERLIES BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STY 20W HAS MAINTAINED ITS DIVERGENT MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
OVERHEAD IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM RJTD
AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. STY MELOR WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN RECURVE NORTHEAST, MAKE LANDFALL INTO
HONSHU NEAR HAMAMATSU, PASS JUST WEST OF TOKYO THEN EXIT BACK INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF SENDAI. IT WILL THEN GET ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS EVIDENCED BY A
NARROW ENVELOPE SPREAD. NOTABLY, JGSM AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR AND WBAR ON THE RIGHT. THIS FORECAST
IS JUST RIGHT OF CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[starlight]

Hello, I'm new here. I am a weather nerd, but this time I am very worried as I have relative living near Tokyo. I am almost experiencing panic attacks here. What preparation should be done? I'm not handling this very well. It is a very big system to my mind