WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

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#401 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:48 pm

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Anyone ordered a bigger eye?!?!?
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Re:

#402 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:09 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Anyone ordered a bigger eye?!?!?


Really, lol. I'm wondering if it might go annular now, and get that nice dinner-plate eye like Isabel in 2003 and Wilma, of course, as it approached Florida.
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#403 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:21 pm

starlight wrote:Hello, I'm new here. I am a weather nerd, but this time I am very worried as I have relative living near Tokyo. I am almost experiencing panic attacks here. What preparation should be done? I'm not handling this very well. It is a very big system to my mind :eek:


Hey starlight...I'm in the same boat...only I'm in Okinawa which looks like it may be getting hit really hard. Hopefully, for you, it will weaken some by the time it gets there, if it hits there. To top everything off, my husband is flying back to the U.S. leaving me here with a 4 & 3 year-old and we don't really know many people here...and this is the first major typhoon we'll be experiencing. I'm scared, too. :wink:
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#404 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:48 pm

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Re:

#405 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:02 pm

:uarrow: The symmetry is just amazing.
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#406 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:03 pm

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The new eye is going to be immense
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Re:

#407 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:09 pm

:uarrow:

Yeah, I'm really suspecting we may get an annular tropical cyclone now...
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Re: Re:

#408 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:13 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow:

Yeah, I'm really suspecting we may get an annular tropical cyclone now...


In that case it won't weak that fast when it reaches Japan, Vamco earlier this year became annular and was a rather strong typhoon despite of the cool waters and increasing wind shear.
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Re: Re:

#409 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:56 pm

Macrocane wrote:
ozonepete wrote::uarrow:

Yeah, I'm really suspecting we may get an annular tropical cyclone now...


In that case it won't weak that fast when it reaches Japan, Vamco earlier this year became annular and was a rather strong typhoon despite of the cool waters and increasing wind shear.


That's true. Although how they form is not understood very well, annular hurricanes/typhoons tend to hold their strength very well under pretty adverse conditions, such as recurve into the westerlies with the resulting interaction with polar continental air. A good deal of that may be because they have a very symmetrical, stable shape. Stable shapes in nature tend to better resist breakdown from outside disturbances than unstable shapes.
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#410 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:56 pm

where is the mysterious shear that JTWC mentioned?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#411 Postby Dianmu » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:09 pm

It maybe go to Janpan.And Japan doesn't have typhoon for 2 years.
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Re:

#412 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:where is the mysterious shear that JTWC mentioned?


lol they've been saying some "interesting" things lately. Are you talking about this one (in red), or did I miss something?

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. ... skipped some stuff here...
B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//
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#413 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:34 pm

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Large eye
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Re:

#414 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:51 pm

:uarrow: Really think it's going annular. There's no time left for an EWRC. Just can't happen on a recurve. Whatever big eye this winds up with, it will keep. That's not good for Japan, because as we were talking about earlier, annular tropical cyclones usually hold their strength better.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#415 Postby starlight » Mon Oct 05, 2009 7:55 pm

Hello Infdidoll, I can sure share your fear. I am not in Japan, but a dear relative is. What are you doing to prepare?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#416 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:07 pm

starlight wrote:Hello Infdidoll, I can sure share your fear. I am not in Japan, but a dear relative is. What are you doing to prepare?


Already got groceries...Right now, the winds are really picking up so I brought everything in from the balcony, getting ready to put some towels around the windows, now. A sunny morning is starting to turn stormy. Other than that, I'm just trying to keep my kids quarantined and out of my way so I can run around making sure everything is as watertight as possible. I'm thinking of going out and trying to befriend some neighbors so I know SOMEBODY if and when crap hits the fan. My husband had a few Marines he work with put on alert that I may need help getting our satellite dish down if things start looking dicey. Other than that, running the air conditioner like a fool in case the power goes out and we have to live without...lol

I hope your relative will be safe. From what I'm hearing, I should rest a little more assured because Japan builds their buildings to withstand these things...especially here on Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#417 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:16 pm

Quick rogue's gallery of a few annulars, Isabel, Wilma and Epsilon:

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#418 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2009 8:48 pm

0300z JTWC warning=120kts

WTPN34 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.0N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.8N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 131.4E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: Re:

#419 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:where is the mysterious shear that JTWC mentioned?


lol they've been saying some "interesting" things lately. Are you talking about this one (in red), or did I miss something?

WDPN34 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. ... skipped some stuff here...
B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED TO VENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALSO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
INTERACTION WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (NEAR 30N) WILL
PROMPT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
CALLS FOR PASSAGE OF MELOR AS A TRANSITIONING CYCLONE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF JAPAN. THE TYPHOON WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY
TAU 72.//


the forecasters at JTWC are not meteorologists, so interesting things can be expected. Since they are forecasters who went thorugh the military training, perhaps it would be better if there was less turnover there. Don't move them to a different assignment. Instead, keep the forecasters on duty as a career
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#420 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:03 pm

JMA 00:00 utc track

Image
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