WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

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theavocado
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Re: Re:

#461 Postby theavocado » Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the forecasters at JTWC are not meteorologists, so interesting things can be expected. Since they are forecasters who went thorugh the military training, perhaps it would be better if there was less turnover there. Don't move them to a different assignment. Instead, keep the forecasters on duty as a career


What do you mean they are not meteorologists?
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Re: Re:

#462 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 06, 2009 8:01 pm

theavocado wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:the forecasters at JTWC are not meteorologists, so interesting things can be expected. Since they are forecasters who went thorugh the military training, perhaps it would be better if there was less turnover there. Don't move them to a different assignment. Instead, keep the forecasters on duty as a career


What do you mean they are not meteorologists?


Wow, good question. I missed the clear inference at the opening of that answer. Ouch! My bad. If they are trained forecasters who were taught the theory and work in the field, then they ARE meteorologists.

Here's the definition from American Heritage:

me·te·or·ol·o·gist (mt--rl-jst)
n.
1. One who studies meteorology.
2. One who reports and forecasts weather conditions.

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.


I was concentrating on the fact that Derek said they don't stay long enough in the West Pacific basin to understand the local climatology so I foolishly missed the opening statement. If they were trained, it wouldn't be fair to not call them meteorologists. Trained forecasters ARE meteorologists.

Now I'm curious what the answer to your question is.
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#463 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:00 pm

Image

The eye is gone
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#464 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:09 pm

ZCZC 694
WTPQ22 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 28.2N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 300NM EAST 230NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 35.1N 136.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 090000UTC 41.1N 143.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 100000UTC 45.2N 151.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
NNNN


Image
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Re:

#465 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:32 pm

:uarrow:

Thanks, HURAKAN. You are truly the "watchful eye." JMA is starting to bend the track more northeastward. Given the upper air charts, this makes more sense.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#466 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:45 pm

WTPN34 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 28.2N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 35.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 38.7N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.9N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 132.1E.
TYPHOON 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re:

#467 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:58 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
The eye is gone


Makes sense. It has to weaken, now that it's recurving into the westerlies and getting impinged upon on its western side by a drier, cooler polar air mass. Sometimes this can strengthen the new, extratropical storm's winds if the impinging trough is deep enough. But in this case, the trough it's abutting is not especially deep, so we should expect a tropical storm within 24 hours.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#468 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:00 pm

BTW, it still looks like the JTWC will have a better forecast track than the JMA when all is said and done.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#469 Postby Weather Watcher » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:36 pm

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#470 Postby Weather Watcher » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:41 pm

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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#471 Postby Weather Watcher » Tue Oct 06, 2009 10:49 pm

http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/07_14.html

One more news story...

5 homes have reportedly been damaged in Okinawa. The Okinawa Electric Power Company says nearly 700 households there were without power as of early Wednesday.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#472 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:00 pm

Weather Watcher wrote:http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/07_14.html

One more news story...

5 homes have reportedly been damaged in Okinawa. The Okinawa Electric Power Company says nearly 700 households there were without power as of early Wednesday.


Thanks for posting those articles. There's going to be some pretty sad news out of Japan after this is over. The east coast will have to get hit really hard by MELOR, especially from the high seas and surge. The track pretty much guarantees that.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#473 Postby Weather Watcher » Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:21 pm

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Re: Re:

#474 Postby theavocado » Wed Oct 07, 2009 1:27 am

ozonepete wrote:Wow, good question. I missed the clear inference at the opening of that answer. Ouch! My bad. If they are trained forecasters who were taught the theory and work in the field, then they ARE meteorologists.


Beyond that, the Navy runs the very well respected (and accredited) Naval Post Graduate School and they award an MS in Meteorology. I find it hard to believe that an experienced, Master's trained forecaster is not considered a meteorologist.

Granted, there are a lot of enlisted forecasters in the Navy and Air Force, but looking at the last page of their 50th Anniversary program posted on their site, it looks like the majority of the employees are officers (i.e. degree holding) and civilians (i.e. stay around and retain corporate knowledge) and the latter group includes the Director running the show.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#475 Postby JTE50 » Wed Oct 07, 2009 2:52 am

Maybe it's a loose term but my thinking was a meteorogist was someone with a degree in meteorology. I have a degree (not in Meteorology) and report my obs back to NOAA and make forecasts but I don't consider myself a meteorolgist. I rely heavily on JMA and JTWC forecasts but do some of my own "looking into the crystal ball" to anticipate what will happen with a developing typhoon. I know one person - Jim Leonard - that is really good at forecasting typhoons in the Pacific and he doesn't have a degree in anything.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#476 Postby beaufort12 » Wed Oct 07, 2009 3:37 am

This is probably a topic for a different forum, but the topic of when someone can be called a meteorologist made me ask myself about the definition. And I wasn't sure. When should we refer to someone as a meteorologist? I'll provide what the American Meteorological Society has to say about the topic. Just for thought.


What is a Meteorologist?
A Professional Guideline

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A question that has been raised for a long period of time is, "What is a meteorologist?" This question has been quite common in recent years with regard to individuals referring to themselves as a "meteorologist" on television and radio. After extended discussions, the Council of the American Meteorological Society adopted on 28 September 1990, the following guideline:

A meteorologist is an individual with specialized education who uses scientific principles to explain, understand, observe or forecast the earth's atmospheric phenomena and/or how the atmosphere affects the earth and life on the planet. This specialized education would be a bachelor's or higher degree in meteorology, or atmospheric science, consistent with the requirements set forth in "The Bachelor's Degree in Meteorology or Atmospheric Science," Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 1987, Vol. 68, No. 12, p. 1570.

There are some cases where an individual has not obtained a B.S. or higher degree in meteorology, but has met the educational requirements set forth in the American Meteorological Society's Interpretive Memorandum effective June 1990, Article III, Section 4 (C), and has at least three years professional experience in meteorology. Such an individual also can be referred to as a meteorologist.

Activities of a meteorologist often are classified into a number of specialized areas. A few examples are: air pollution meteorology, global climate modeling, hydrometeorology, and numerical analysis and forecasting. These activities often require additional specialized education in related subjects.

The designation meteorologist applies to individuals who have attained the professional knowledge outlined above. Individuals who have little formal education in the atmospheric sciences, or who have taken only industry survey courses, and who disseminate weather information and forecasts prepared by others, are properly designated "weathercasters."
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#477 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:57 am

ZCZC 487
WTPQ22 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 30.8N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM EAST 230NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 38.9N 139.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 090600UTC 43.5N 147.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 100600UTC 45.9N 156.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN


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#478 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 07, 2009 5:59 am

Image

Latest
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MELOR (20W)

#479 Postby alan1961 » Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:28 am

Some decent webcams for southern japan if only these storms would hit in daylight hours there!

http://www.123-cams.com/live-webcam.php ... nabe1.html
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Re: Re:

#480 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 07, 2009 7:43 am

theavocado wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Wow, good question. I missed the clear inference at the opening of that answer. Ouch! My bad. If they are trained forecasters who were taught the theory and work in the field, then they ARE meteorologists.


Beyond that, the Navy runs the very well respected (and accredited) Naval Post Graduate School and they award an MS in Meteorology. I find it hard to believe that an experienced, Master's trained forecaster is not considered a meteorologist.

Granted, there are a lot of enlisted forecasters in the Navy and Air Force, but looking at the last page of their 50th Anniversary program posted on their site, it looks like the majority of the employees are officers (i.e. degree holding) and civilians (i.e. stay around and retain corporate knowledge) and the latter group includes the Director running the show.


Thanks for all of that info. That's a much clearer picture of what goes on there.
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