ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#241 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:20 pm

Image
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re:

#242 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Watch out England!!!



Nothing at all out of the blue for the UK. Forecast in general is showing max gusting wind speeds in my area of the North West of England hitting no more than 29mph Gusts at around 4pm GMT. Rainfall as to be exected also but all in all a normal October day here for us :)
0 likes   

Cryomaniac
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1289
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:26 pm
Location: Newark, Nottinghamshire, UK
Contact:

Re: Re:

#243 Postby Cryomaniac » Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:37 pm

ozonepete wrote:
leanne_uk wrote::uarrow: Pete as much as I would love a hurricane I really cant see grace holding herself well enough over the next 24-36 hours in the cooler waters to give the UK anything to worry about at all should she continue to track NE.

She is a stunner though and its great that this is one I have saw develop fron the very beginning, make me just a little happy :D


Oh yeah, I know it can never hold up as tropical over those waters, but you might get a puff of wind and some rain out of it, although more likely whatever's left will move more over Ireland.


I'm tempted to say "never say never", but if this is still tropical when it hits Ireland I'll be impressed lol.
0 likes   

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re: Re:

#244 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:41 pm

Cryomaniac wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
leanne_uk wrote::uarrow: Pete as much as I would love a hurricane I really cant see grace holding herself well enough over the next 24-36 hours in the cooler waters to give the UK anything to worry about at all should she continue to track NE.

She is a stunner though and its great that this is one I have saw develop fron the very beginning, make me just a little happy :D


Oh yeah, I know it can never hold up as tropical over those waters, but you might get a puff of wind and some rain out of it, although more likely whatever's left will move more over Ireland.


I'm tempted to say "never say never", but if this is still tropical when it hits Ireland I'll be impressed lol.


If this is still tropical when it gets near Ireland and the UK there will be alot more than you impressed.

I think the guys over at the Met office would be a little stressed out that a system was over looked so much as they do not show any weather advisories at all for the next 24/36 hours lol :D

I am looking forward to a Duvet day tomorrow should the weather be a miserable as it looks for my area :D
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#245 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:44 pm

Image

Flying across the NE Atlantic
0 likes   

User avatar
leaf blower
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:01 am

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#246 Postby leaf blower » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:05 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#247 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:16 pm

18 UTC Best track:

AL, 09, 2009100518, , BEST, 0, 466N, 156W, 55, 990, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
breeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9110
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:55 pm
Location: Lawrenceburg, TN

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#248 Postby breeze » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:35 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#249 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:31 pm

Image

Gracefully declining
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#250 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:32 pm

Reality is starting to set in.

Does diurnal maximum make any significant difference at such high latitudes?
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#251 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Reality is starting to set in.

Does diurnal maximum make any significant difference at such high latitudes?


It won't in this case, no. The nocturnal convective max is caused by very warm ocean temps beneath the tropical low contrasted with very cold cloud tops over the storm at night. It's the large temperature difference between the two that encourages strong convection. In this case the ocean temps are just not warm enough anymore to provide a big difference in ocean to cloudtop temps during the night.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#252 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:55 pm

I see some questioning on here as to if Grace is actually a TC or not. For what is is worth I think this is clearly a TC. I'm at 51N and this really isn't too far off that now!
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 524
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: Re:

#253 Postby Steve Cosby » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:11 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Personally, I think it has been a tropical storm since 0000Z on October 1.


Likely the most interesting post-season report will come from Grace


No - the most interesting post-season report will come from the unnamed storm that hit New Jersey.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE - Advisories

#254 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:35 pm


000
WTNT34 KNHC 052033
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009

...GRACE SPEEDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WEST OF FRANCE...EXPECTED TO
BE ABSORBED BY FRONT BY EARLY TOMORROW...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 14.8 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND...AND ABOUT 480 MILES...
775 KM....WEST OF BREST FRANCE.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE GRACE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.7N 14.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 30 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009

GRACE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND A MODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE AS INDICATED BY RECENT
AMSU PASSES. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF
17-18C. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED A SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATION OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM
SAB. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF GRACE SOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HELD
AT 990 MB BASED ON AN 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 992 MB AND A WIND OF
20 KT FROM SHIP A8I02 ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GRACE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/26 KT...AS GRACE IS BEING STEERED
BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 27W. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW GRACE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
FARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY. ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT
POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
EARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 47.7N 14.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 50.6N 12.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:37 pm

From 5 PM discussion.

IT IS LIKELY THAT
POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
EARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2034.shtml


Yes!!!
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#256 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:42 pm

First time I've seen Brest in one of these as well!

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 14.8 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CORK IRELAND...AND ABOUT 480 MILES...
775 KM....WEST OF BREST FRANCE.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#257 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:52 pm

This is odd. A tropical system developing and maintaining that far north. Any chance of Grace hitting Ireland while still tropical?
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#258 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 05, 2009 3:58 pm

AdamFirst wrote:This is odd. A tropical system developing and maintaining that far north. Any chance of Grace hitting Ireland while still tropical?


It isn't out of the question, but the odds are against it. It is about 350 miles from the southwestern tip of Ireland (which is at about 51.5N 9.6W), so landfall would be about 12 hours from now at the current speed.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#259 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:40 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:This is odd. A tropical system developing and maintaining that far north. Any chance of Grace hitting Ireland while still tropical?


It isn't out of the question, but the odds are against it. It is about 350 miles from the southwestern tip of Ireland (which is at about 51.5N 9.6W), so landfall would be about 12 hours from now at the current speed.


Yeah, I agree. Not very likely, but it could come inland in southern Ireland land with some of its tropical characteristics left, like maybe a rain-free eye or still a small core of strongest winds around the center. It happens on the northeast coast of the U.S. and Canada sometimes when the system is moving very fast, as Grace is.

Here's the UKMET office forecast for tomorrow at 12Z, right around when Grace comes in. Notice it's "EX GRACE", meaning extratropical.

Image
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#260 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:44 pm

looks like this will be touch and go with regards to landfall

if it does make landfall, it would be the second strongest landfall of the season, behind Bill in Newfoundland
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests