ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#501 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:43 am

Image

Au revoir Henri!
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3570
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#502 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:52 am

BYE BYE!!! I guess we chalk this one up too??
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18058
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#503 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:54 am

Bones has two announcements. First, he'd like to mention that Star Trek Seasons 1-3 are now available in beautiful high-definition Blu-Ray. I think I'll put them on my Christmas list.
http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/Star-Trek ... view/4189/

Second...
Image
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3859
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

#504 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:48 am

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113779
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#505 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:22 pm

Best track downgrades from TD.

AL, 10, 2009100818, , BEST, 0, 202N, 622W, 25, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#506 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:24 pm

421
WHXX01 KWBC 081811
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1811 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE HENRI (AL102009) 20091008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 0600 091009 1800 091010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 62.2W 20.7N 64.2W 21.1N 66.2W 21.2N 68.4W
BAMD 20.2N 62.2W 20.4N 63.9W 20.3N 66.1W 20.4N 68.8W
BAMM 20.2N 62.2W 20.4N 64.1W 20.4N 66.5W 20.6N 69.3W
LBAR 20.2N 62.2W 20.7N 63.8W 20.8N 65.5W 20.4N 67.7W
SHIP 25KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 22KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 1800 091011 1800 091012 1800 091013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 70.8W 22.6N 75.5W 23.4N 79.4W 23.7N 83.1W
BAMD 20.7N 71.7W 21.8N 76.6W 22.2N 80.7W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 21.1N 72.1W 22.3N 77.0W 22.8N 80.7W 22.8N 84.3W
LBAR 20.1N 70.2W 20.5N 76.0W 20.8N 81.2W 20.8N 86.1W
SHIP 36KTS 48KTS 59KTS 70KTS
DSHP 36KTS 48KTS 45KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 62.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#507 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:35 pm

NEXT STORM PLEASE
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#508 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:37 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
breeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9110
Age: 56
Joined: Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:55 pm
Location: Lawrenceburg, TN

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#509 Postby breeze » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:45 pm

Au revoir, petite tempête...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#510 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:49 pm

breeze wrote:Au revoir, petite tempête...


You know he has feelings, right?!?!?!? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12311
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#511 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

C'est très bien Hurakan, bon élève (good pupill). Just a remark on your sentence: it's not "DANS 2015" :ggreen: but EN 2015, correction: you should say in 2015 ( en 2015 :) :cheesy: :lol: . Tkanks for this nice sentence, we appreciate this french wink us in the islands. :wink: :)
Gustywind who is not the teacher :D
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#512 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:34 pm

:uarrow: I used freetranslation.com!!! Don't think those words came out of my mouth in French!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12311
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#513 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:34 pm

breeze wrote:Au revoir, petite tempête...

Excellent Brent, very good :P i give you an A :lol: . A la prochaine Henri :cheesy: (meaning see you next time Henri) :).
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12311
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#514 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:39 pm

HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: I used freetranslation.com!!! Don't think those words came out of my mouth in French!!!

I noticied that Hurakan... :cheesy: but this time you know how to say en 2015 and that's the good tkink, agree with me? :) Tkanks to Gustywind churning as a gust near Henri :lol: :wink:
Have a good day my friend Hurakan :D
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 948
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#515 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:14 pm

Well, Henri certainly is in poor shape. I wouldn't call this a comeback, but there is some modest convection beginning to fire on the east side of the remnant swirl. Something to watch, since shear in the area is not as strong as it was yesterday.

Shear and subsidence have been an incredibly effective defense against TC's this year. I don't think this is all nino related, there is something else at work here, which some budding grad student will likely study.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#516 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:36 pm

712
WTNT25 KNHC 082035
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 66.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 62.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


017
WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST THU OCT 08 2009

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVOURED YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
YEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRI ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.4N 62.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 66.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7105
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

#517 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:25 pm

First time convection has fired over the LLC in a while.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12311
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#518 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:44 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1796
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#519 Postby caribepr » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:34 pm

Hope the au voir isn't premature for any rain events...it would be nice to think Henri has the good manners to leave without a fuss
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20623
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#520 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:43 pm

I think you have to go back to 2004 as the last time there was a developing system with a good upper-level environment that went through the Hebert box, approaching from the ESE.

Ever since then, we have seen system after system get taken down by the strong shear around the Leewards. This year, the synoptics did open up the possibilities of systems getting far to the west. But it seems that when this happens, the shear does the job to kill the system. On the other hand, when synoptics were present that would recurve systems E of 65W or so, the upper-level environment seemed better, but it didn't matter since the system was recurving anyway.

There is something about that area around the NE Leewards (or just east of the Leewards) that keeps killing systems.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests