ATL : INVEST 92L

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#41 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 12:38 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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#42 Postby punkyg » Thu Oct 08, 2009 12:45 pm

Question will 92l's "center" past to the north of SA or will it run a ground? from the loop blown-away posted, I think it'll make it, but just by a few miles from the coast.

Just my unprofessional observation. :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:03 pm

I guess we have to wait for more runs to see a more clear picture.

First HWRF run on 92L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:06 pm

Image

The next 24 hours will be decisive
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:I guess we have to wait for more runs to see a more clear picture.

First HWRF run on 92L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


Doesn't tell us much, but it does seem to move 92L's energy towards Jamaica instead of CA.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#46 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:08 pm

Here's a 12Z GFS forecast of mean mid-level steering along 92's path valid for 7AM CDT Monday. Note the strong ridge to the north. This one should stay near the coast of South America as forecast. Development unlikely due to the fast (increasingly) forward speed and interaction with land. Main inflow will be off South America.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#47 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:12 pm

:uarrow: The climotological pattern looks more like August instead of October.
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:18 pm

Image

CIMSS having some confusion!!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#49 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:25 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: The climotological pattern looks more like August instead of October.


Yeah, and here in Houston we're experiencing lows near 80 and highs in the low 90s. A bit warmer than normal. That strong cold front the GFS advertised moving out into the Gulf early next week looks like it won't materialize.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#50 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: The climotological pattern looks more like August instead of October.


Yeah, and here in Houston we're experiencing lows near 80 and highs in the low 90s. A bit warmer than normal. That strong cold front the GFS advertised moving out into the Gulf early next week looks like it won't materialize.


Yea, Record Highs in Tampa Bay. And shhhh, the cold front will hear you!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#51 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:33 pm

18 UTC Best Track

Almost at 10N.

AL, 92, 2009100818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 583W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L - Models

#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:35 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 081828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 0600 091009 1800 091010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 58.3W 10.5N 62.0W 11.2N 65.1W 11.4N 68.0W
BAMD 9.8N 58.3W 10.7N 62.1W 11.1N 65.5W 10.9N 68.7W
BAMM 9.8N 58.3W 10.6N 62.0W 11.1N 65.4W 11.2N 68.7W
LBAR 9.8N 58.3W 10.7N 62.1W 11.5N 65.8W 11.8N 69.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 1800 091011 1800 091012 1800 091013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 70.5W 10.6N 76.5W 9.6N 81.9W 8.1N 86.5W
BAMD 10.5N 72.0W 9.0N 78.2W 7.4N 83.6W 6.5N 88.2W
BAMM 11.3N 72.0W 10.2N 78.5W 8.5N 84.5W 7.0N 89.3W
LBAR 11.8N 72.9W 11.3N 78.7W 10.3N 84.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 93KTS 99KTS
DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 52KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 54.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Derek Ortt

#53 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:36 pm

we have a clear picture... this is not going to do anything
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#54 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:46 pm

IMO, I think if an LLC were to develop it will be closer to the deeper convection up near 11/12N.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:47 pm

Image

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible

The "center" "appears" to be just above 10°N. A lot of quotation marks here!!!
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#56 Postby jconsor » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:19 pm

Chances of development in the next few days are quite low, due to encountering dry air over the E. Caribbean and land interaction, but this has a somewhat better chance over the SW Caribbean or the Eastern Pacific if it is still around when it gets there.

92L is likely to turn to the WNW over the next 2 days as there is a weakness in the ridge over the E. Caribbean (It is already gaining some latitude based on recent satellite loops). A bend back to the WSW is very possible once it reaches the SW Caribbean given the strength of the upper-level ridge. However, the ECMWF indicates the ridge will be weak enough to keep 92L 100 miles or so north of Panama once it clears the South American coast. The ECMWF does develop 92L by late next week and next weekend in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles off the coast of Central America.
Last edited by jconsor on Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#57 Postby Rainband » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:we have a clear picture... this is not going to do anything
especially with the ULL ahead of it and interaction with land :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#58 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:22 pm

:uarrow: Maybe Ida will form in the Caribbean and jump over to the Pacific?? :D
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Re: ATL : INVEST 92L

#59 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:26 pm

Saw the satellite and came in post. See NHC agrees with what I saw.



Now this is one I would watch. It's in the right place at the right time.



Could have a sleeper entering the Caribbean here right in line with jfl's hot SST's! (WOW)



And it's unusually hot here in Florida.
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:30 pm

Image

If a LLC is going to develop, it's likely to do it where the convection is strongest, which is already north of the latitude of the SA coast.
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