EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA (19E)

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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:20 am

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Looking good
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:21 am

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50 knots, just like Derek said it.
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:25 am

Notice those are in the SE quad, so it is possible the highest winds were not sampled. 50 kt does seem reasonable though, although a case could be made for 55 kt as well.

Should they put out a special advisory, or just wait for the 11 am intermediate?
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Re:

#44 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 12, 2009 11:43 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Notice those are in the SE quad, so it is possible the highest winds were not sampled. 50 kt does seem reasonable though, although a case could be made for 55 kt as well.

Should they put out a special advisory, or just wait for the 11 am intermediate?


I think we'll have to wait for the intermediate.

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It looks pretty good though banding is not present at this time but the circulation is well defined, she's producing strong convection and it seems that a CDO is forming. I wouldn't be surprised if she reaches hurricane strength. Baja should carefully monitor the progress of Patricia especially since they have been hit by Jimena and Olaf earlier this season.
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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:28 pm

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Small system
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EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA - RECON Cancelled

#46 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:30 pm

874
NOUS42 KNHC 121530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 12 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-137

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 13/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0119E PATRICIA
C. 13/1215Z
D. 22.0N 110.0W
E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE FIX AT 14/1800Z
NEAR 23.0N 110.5W
DMG

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#47 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:44 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2009 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 19:19:40 N Lon : 109:36:33 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.0 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.0mb

Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:51 pm

842
WTPZ34 KNHC 121751
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

...PATRICIA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 245 MILES...395 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PATRICIA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 1:58 pm

12/1800 UTC 18.9N 109.9W T3.5/3.5 PATRICIA -- East Pacific

55 knots says Dvorak
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:00 pm

Best Track at 18 UTC has it at 50kts.

EP, 19, 2009101218, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1100W, 50, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 2:07 pm

838
WHXX01 KMIA 121904
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1904 UTC MON OCT 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA (EP192009) 20091012 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091012 1800 091013 0600 091013 1800 091014 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 110.0W 21.5N 110.5W 23.3N 111.0W 24.3N 111.5W
BAMD 19.5N 110.0W 21.3N 110.5W 22.6N 110.4W 23.0N 111.1W
BAMM 19.5N 110.0W 21.3N 110.5W 22.4N 110.9W 22.8N 111.8W
LBAR 19.5N 110.0W 21.4N 109.9W 23.8N 109.4W 25.8N 108.9W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 57KTS 59KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 57KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091014 1800 091015 1800 091016 1800 091017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 112.4W 24.9N 114.7W 24.2N 117.6W 24.0N 120.5W
BAMD 23.4N 112.6W 24.1N 116.1W 23.8N 119.1W 23.0N 122.2W
BAMM 23.1N 113.4W 23.4N 117.3W 23.0N 121.1W 22.8N 124.8W
LBAR 27.5N 107.8W 28.5N 104.9W 27.2N 100.9W 28.1N 95.2W
SHIP 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS 41KTS
DSHP 59KTS 52KTS 44KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 110.0W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 109.3W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 108.3W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1005MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#52 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 3:58 pm

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 122057
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

...PATRICIA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 110.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA BECAME
BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN ON THE DECREASE. IN ADDITION...A BANDING FEATURE
OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALL BUT VANISHED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN SPITE OF THE VERY RECENT DEGRADATION IN THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PATRICIA...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC
WERE 3.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...AS
WELL AS EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE CENTER OF PATRICIA REMAINS CHALLENGING TO LOCATE...BUT
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A LONGER-TERM
MOTION OF 325/07. PATRICIA IS BEING STEERED ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN
ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
BUILDS WESTWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND
HWRF...WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE WEST
AND ARE WITHIN THE SPREAD OF THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS CHANGE
REPRESENTS PART OF A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TO TURN
PATRICIA ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT
OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.

IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...PATRICIA
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS ALSO IMPLIED BY
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...WILL PROBABLY
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PATRICIA MOVES
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

SINCE THE TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO LESSEN THE THREAT
TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.8N 110.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 20.7N 110.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.8N 110.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH


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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#53 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
500 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

...PATRICIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA
SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.9N 110.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#54 Postby lrak » Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:28 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

I guess I've relied too much on everyone else in here to tell me whats up. The map above and that site have been used to predict a path, and I confused about the computer models hard left turn. I just looked at the satellite and this storm is getting squash towards the NE, yet the NHC says its drifting NW :double: Maybe another trip to the fridge will help my satellite glasses work better :P

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-wv.html

Your knowledge is much appreciated.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:34 pm

096
WTPZ44 KNHC 130232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING
FEATURES AND IS CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE EARLIER TODAY SO THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. PATRICIA IS EXHIBITING
WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT ALSO INDICATES THAT STABLE
AND RELATIVE DRY AIR AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL BE INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND IS
CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE FOR PATRICIA TO BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE. IN
FACT...BASED ON HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATRICIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CENTER REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT BUT BASED ON RECENT
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OR 350/5. PATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO. A LITTLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD THE WEST. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
HOW FAR NORTH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THIS WILL LARGELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH IMPACT PATRICIA
WILL HAVE ON SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY CLOSER TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON
THE EXACT PREDICTED TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS TIME...NO
CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ARE NECESSARY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 20.0N 109.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 20.7N 110.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 21.6N 110.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 22.1N 111.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.3N 112.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 115.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA


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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:09 am


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 130846
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

SSMIS...TRMM...AND QUIKSCAT DATA THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE
ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATE THAT PATRICIA MOVED
UNEXPECTEDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SCATTEROMETER AND TRMM DATA AS WELL AS A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION
SUGGEST THAT THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS DISRUPTED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...RESULTING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
ELONGATION OF THE SYSTEM. PATRICIA CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING
FEATURES. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY
A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED SOME BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS AND
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

A 12-HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE YIELDS AN INITIAL HEADING OF 360/5.
PATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE LIFTS OUT TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER
THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW SOON THE
RIDGE BUILDS...AND WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND TAKE
PATRICIA OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE AND PREDICT AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE WESTWARD TURN. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION AND MORE EASTWARD INITIAL
POSITION. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHILE THESE FACTORS FAVOR
STRENGTHENING...DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...BUT IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS. THE HWRF IS CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 20.7N 109.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 22.4N 111.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#57 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 6:55 am

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 131151
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PATRICIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM MAINLY SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 11:06 am

119
NOUS42 KNHC 131315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT TUE 13 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING ON TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FOR
13/1800Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 13/0830Z.
DMG

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 11:36 am

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 131454
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

PATRICIA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST IS RAGGED AND ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND NO OUTER
BANDING IS PRESENT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
POOR IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A
POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT.

THE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OF DUE NORTH DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 015/6. THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TO LIFT OUT...WITH AN EAST TO WEST MID-LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF PATRICIA DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR. THESE
DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF. THAT MODEL FORECASTS PATRICIA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH A WESTWARD MOTION LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSER TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH DURING THE
FIRST 12-24 HR.

PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER WARM WATER...SO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME....AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS
VERY DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE STORM. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
HOLDS ON TO IT FOR FIVE DAYS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
MODELS...WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECAY TO DISSIPATION OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BY 96 HR. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER STORM AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 21.4N 109.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 21.9N 109.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 110.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 22.4N 111.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 22.5N 113.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:53 pm

KNHC 131737
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PATRICIA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.8N 108.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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