EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA (19E)

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#61 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:56 pm

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Poof
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#62 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:05 pm

The models were more bullish on this one. GFDL even shows Hurricane Rick to the south, but it makes you wonder if that's going to pan out.
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:35 pm

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Continues to go down
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#64 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR 13Z SHOWED A 45-50 KT WIND VECTOR ABOUT 45 N MI
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF PATRICIA. SINCE THAT TIME...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS PARTLY
OBSCURED BY CIRRUS DEBRIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
45 KT BASED ON A SLOW DECAY FROM THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA...AND
THIS INTENSITY COULD BE GENEROUS. WHY THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
IS NOT CLEAR...BUT UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AND STABLE AIR INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST COULD BE REASONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS JUST EAST OF NORTH AT 010/6. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
NORTH OF PATRICIA TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24
HRS...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE TURN OCCURS...AND
WITH THE CURRENT MOTION THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA IN
ABOUT 12 HRS. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

PATRICIA REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
WARM WATER. THUS...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UP LATER TONIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORM. AFTER 12-24 HRS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO THE DRY AIR MASS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE PATRICIA TO WEAKEN.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR PATRICIA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW PATRICIA DISSIPATING
IN 60 HRS OR LESS...SO IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK THE
CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 22.1N 108.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 22.8N 112.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 114.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 6:40 pm

KNHC 132333
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PATRICIA WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE DISCONTINUED
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PATRICIA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.3N 109.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:47 pm

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A goner
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#67 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:34 pm

They kept it as a Tropical Storm,wow.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PATRICIA LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...80 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PATRICIA WILL PROBABLY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

PATRICIA COULD STILL PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.6N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

PATRICIA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE
ASSIGNED A DATA T-NUMBER VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. HOWEVER A SHIP
WITH CALL SIGN C6FV9 REPORTED 32-KT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY...OR LESS.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT IS
OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 325/5.
AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATRICIA OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN TO THE
WEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THAT AREA ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 22.6N 109.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.9N 109.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 23.0N 111.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 15/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE


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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:45 pm

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I can't believe they kept this as a tropical storm. Shocking!
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#69 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:55 pm

They said a ship reported 32kts 75MN NE of center and only based on that report it was kept as a storm. :roll:
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#70 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:51 pm

It needs more than winds to be classified as a TC, I guess they kept it as a TS due to its proximity to land but certainly on other circumstances it would have been a remnant low.
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#71 Postby Cookie » Wed Oct 14, 2009 5:16 am

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA (19E)

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 14, 2009 5:33 am

Last Advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2009

PATRICIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND
1800 UTC...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS
TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT
PASS AT 0504 UTC. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TRANSIENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300/05. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW. THIS WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
PATRICIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.8N 109.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 110.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 15/0600Z 23.1N 112.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 15/1800Z 23.1N 113.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/0600Z 23.1N 115.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA (19E)

#73 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:40 am

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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 14, 2009 8:49 am

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