WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (93W)

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drdavisjr
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WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (93W)

#1 Postby drdavisjr » Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:18 am

Hi, I am new to this forum. I am living in Manila, Philippines. The JWTC has yet to issue it's first warning on this new invest. The NRL has it in their home page.

Most here might know that we received very severe flooding from TS Ketsana and further north with Parma. I am an American expat, should we be worried about this LPA?
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:49 am

First,welcome to storm2k.

The system doesnt look well organized at this time but it may cause more flooding in southern Luzon.Lets see what happens in terms of organization into a Tropical Cyclone or not.

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#3 Postby drdavisjr » Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:53 am

Thank you for welcoming me and thanks for the info. I cannot either see any convection. Let's hope it stays that way.
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#4 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:39 am

It seems to be located south of the country...hope this doesn't develop into anything bad...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#5 Postby drdavisjr » Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:48 am

From what I've read and experienced, Tropical Cyclones generally get started right around 10 degrees north of the equator. The latest satellite image looks a bit troubling. We've had more than our share of disasters lately...

Originally from Oklahoma, I had never experienced hurricanes or typhoons until I moved out here to the Philippines 3 yrs ago.

Let's wait and see what happens as it moves into the Philippine Sea. I am a true novice, but I hate to admit that these storms are as fascinating as they are devastating.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#6 Postby drdavisjr » Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:36 am

Question, for anyone that might know...

Wouldn't you say that this system is too close to land to develop into anything significant before entering the Philippines?
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#7 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:53 pm

drdavisjr wrote:Question, for anyone that might know...

Wouldn't you say that this system is too close to land to develop into anything significant before entering the Philippines?


my thoughts too.....I am no expert at this though so don't take my word for it.....

Let's wait for people who's more knowledgeable :)
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#8 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:11 am

It's very near land now...I don't think this system will develop into a typhoon(good news)
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#9 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:43 am

Yes, looks very weak. Now, we keep an eye on 94W.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:18 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#11 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 6:08 pm

It's pretty much on land now. It's bringing rains currently on central & southern Philippines & parts of the southern & central Luzon..,.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#12 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:10 pm

Wow, this storm looks like it is starting to organize. Am I seeing this right? Can anyone give me a quick guess as to rainfall potential, especially in Central Luzon? It has started raiining here and this storm looks very large. It reminds me of Ketsana (Ondoy). the baby storm that literaly flooded 80% of the city.

Thank you in advance.
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#13 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:11 pm

Is it possible for a storm to organize over land? That's puzzling....
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#14 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:25 pm

I don't think it would develop into a TD or TS, but it sure looks like it has started to consolidate into one very large cell.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2009 3:09 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 113.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING AND WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AWAY FROM A REGION OF HIGHER VERTCAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 151211Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE
IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:23 pm

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Nice circulation
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 93W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:44 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
113.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS ACTUALLY ABOUT 80 NM EAST OF WHERE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AT 160000Z. THE ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
NEW CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. IN
ADDITION, A 160140Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS CURVED INFLOW WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A VERY BROAD, THOUGH
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC. STILL, A 160143Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
CENTER WINDS OF ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS (DESPITE A BURST OF 25- TO 30-
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER 150 NM NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM CENTER). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS ACCESS
TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE VERY NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE
TO THE BROAD LLCC AND UNORGANIZED CONVECTION ABOUT THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 6:43 am

Image

Doesn't look like it's organizing
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:31 am

16/1430 UTC 14.6N 111.3E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific

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Getting closer to the coast
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:31 am

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 113E WEST SLOWLY.
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