WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Nice image, Hurakan. Looks like the center's consolidating very well. Could undergo a rapid intensification cycle soon.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's getting ready to zoom

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 650
WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 12.0N 139.8E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 13.2N 133.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
NNNN

I don't know why JMA is waiting so long to upgrade this system to TS.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 OCT 2009 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 12:39:22 N Lon : 139:26:22 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

I don't know why JMA is waiting so long to upgrade this system to TS.

Probably because they still had it at T2.0 at 12Z. They won't upgrade in an intermediate advisory either. They've just got to T2.5 at 18Z so it will be named in the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

15/1430 UTC 12.7N 140.1E T3.5/3.5 22W -- West Pacific

55 knots says Dvorak. Typhoon status starts at 64 knots

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0920 LUPIT (0920) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 12.4N 139.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 13.3N 134.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 14.7N 132.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181800UTC 15.0N 131.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[HURAKAN]

Track

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind JMA is 10 minute winds... 35KT in 10 min winds is about 40-45KT in 1 minute winds

as for guidance, MM5 (cmc) is showing some very rapid intensification of the system

[oaba09]

It's called Lupit? Talk about ironic...Lupit is a Filipino word related to violence or cruelty...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC Warning=55kts

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 13.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 13.8N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.9N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 137.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF YAP AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AS SUCH, THE
SYSTEM HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW AT
55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES (T3.5) AS WELL AS A 151730Z SATCON
AUTOMATED DVORAK VALUE OF T3.4. A 151615Z AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD
TRACK SPEED AND MOVE POLEWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 22W WILL
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BY TAU
72, TS 22W SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR LOCATED BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS TS 22W
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WHICH CALL FOR THE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 OCT 2009 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 12:45:47 N Lon : 138:10:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 985.4mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Center Temp : -34.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago

[ozonepete]

A few hours ago

Hey Hurakan, where did you get this CloudSat image with the reflectivity cross-section at the bottom? That's incredible.

[StormingB81]

Looking at the radar this looks like a huge storm like where ever it hits it can cause massive amounts of rain even if you are not directly hit by the storm.

[oaba09]

^Unfortunately that's what we're scared of(rains)

[Ad Novoxium]

It's called Lupit? Talk about ironic...Lupit is a Filipino word related to violence or cruelty...

The last Lupit wasn't exactly a "gentle" looking typhoon either:

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful system