WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1101 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:08 am

StormingB81 wrote:Well now JMA is saying We can get over 50 knot winds. Its still pouring here. winds are calm for the time being. now lets see if it turns into the east or goes to the southwest like some models are saying


I don't know what area you live in, but where I am the winds are starting to get loud. I don't think my building is very aerodynamic. The wind can be loud on a normal, windy day...but when a typhoon is nearby, it's deafening. It's going to be a sleepless night.

The whole building is shaking with the big gusts. I can hear stuff banging around outside and I have no idea what it is. Still no TCCOR3, though. I don't think they update the TCCOR here until you are tying down your roof to keep from losing it.
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1102 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:10 am

Winds back up to 55kts with a bit more strengthening forecast.

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 23.1N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 230NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 24.5N 128.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 261200UTC 25.5N 130.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271200UTC 26.7N 132.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Image
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1103 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:16 am

1500z JTWC Warning=55kts

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.2N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.0N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.3N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 26.2N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 126.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

Image
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#1104 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:18 am

Interesting, JTWC still sees a WSW movement...
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Re:

#1105 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:22 am

oaba09 wrote:Interesting, JTWC still sees a WSW movement...


Read section C of the prognostic reasoning by them.

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)
WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHED
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET WINDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ON A RADAR REPORT FROM JAPAN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF
T3.5. AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W HAS CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 240952Z SSMI PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE AT THE
LOW-LEVEL 37CHZ THAT IS SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL 85GHZ EYE,
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY TILT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE IT FLATTENS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
ANTICIPATION OF A TRACK REVERSAL AT TAU 72. THE CURRENT IMPROVED
OUTFLOW SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND AS THE STORM MOVES POLEWARD, ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AT
THE MID-LEVELS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT DECOUPLES FROM ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND STARTS TO TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (240000Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM ISHIGAKAJIMA,
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 600 MB AND
BELOW). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DEPICT A FASTER, MORE INTENSE SYSTEM THAT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD TS LUPIT MAINTAIN A STRONGER
INTENSITY, ITS TRACK WILL BE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST.//
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Re: Re:

#1106 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:26 am

cycloneye wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Interesting, JTWC still sees a WSW movement...


Read section C of the prognostic reasoning by them.

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)
WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHED
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET WINDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ON A RADAR REPORT FROM JAPAN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF
T3.5. AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W HAS CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 240952Z SSMI PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE AT THE
LOW-LEVEL 37CHZ THAT IS SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL 85GHZ EYE,
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY TILT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE IT FLATTENS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
ANTICIPATION OF A TRACK REVERSAL AT TAU 72. THE CURRENT IMPROVED
OUTFLOW SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND AS THE STORM MOVES POLEWARD, ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AT
THE MID-LEVELS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT DECOUPLES FROM ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND STARTS TO TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (240000Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM ISHIGAKAJIMA,
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 600 MB AND
BELOW). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DEPICT A FASTER, MORE INTENSE SYSTEM THAT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD TS LUPIT MAINTAIN A STRONGER
INTENSITY, ITS TRACK WILL BE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST.//


So basically, if lupit strengthens, it will go NE but if it weakens, it will go SW...am I right?
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Re: Re:

#1107 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:28 am

oaba09 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Interesting, JTWC still sees a WSW movement...


Read section C of the prognostic reasoning by them.

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)
WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHED
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET WINDS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ON A RADAR REPORT FROM JAPAN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF
T3.5. AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W HAS CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A 240952Z SSMI PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE AT THE
LOW-LEVEL 37CHZ THAT IS SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL 85GHZ EYE,
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY TILT.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE
THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE IT FLATTENS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IN
ANTICIPATION OF A TRACK REVERSAL AT TAU 72. THE CURRENT IMPROVED
OUTFLOW SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND AS THE STORM MOVES POLEWARD, ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AT
THE MID-LEVELS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT DECOUPLES FROM ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND STARTS TO TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (240000Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM ISHIGAKAJIMA,
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 600 MB AND
BELOW). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DEPICT A FASTER, MORE INTENSE SYSTEM THAT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE
SYSTEM WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD TS LUPIT MAINTAIN A STRONGER
INTENSITY, ITS TRACK WILL BE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST.//


So basically, if lupit strengthens, it will go NE but if it weakens, it will go SW...am I right?


Thats right.
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#1108 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:56 am

Hmm...looks a bit more than 55kts to me!

Image

New Dvorak classifications should be almost done as I write this...I'd be amazed if this didn't get at least a 3.5, probably a 4.0 - in other words, Lupit should probably be a typhoon again, despite JTWC not labelling it as such at the 12z advisory. With this deeper presentation, it seems even more likely that Lupit is going to be picked up by the strong trof diving across Japan in 48-72 hours...the same time that the Navy has it shearing apart and leaving the low-level center behind.

The 06z GFS was a bit different from the 00z, but its only differences would actually support Lupit moving out of the tropics even quicker, and also staying farther away from the Japanese coast.

Interestingly enough, as this extratropical system heads for the Aleutians, it tries to absorb the system that abosrbed Neki - now THAT would be a powerful storm! Don't know if this happened in previous runs, but would certainly be something interesting to watch for come next Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1109 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:45 am

Its going to turn for 180°,strange storm :double:

Image
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#1110 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:35 pm

Image

windrunner, that image is a little bit deceptive. If you look at this one, the 55 knots looks high.
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1111 Postby JTE50 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:45 pm

oaba09 wrote:
JTE50 wrote:I am in Manila waiting for my 11pm flight back to Guam. Lots of press from Aparri caught the flight from Tuguegarao to Manila. GMA Channel 7 and 2 in Manila. Aljazeera from Malaysia, and some others. CNN from Bangkok, Thailand made it as far as Tuguegarao. If you live in Manila, tune in to GMA from 8:30-9pm. I'll be on the News. I had a wonder experience with the Filipino people on this trip.


Saw you on the news jim... :D


I was at a friend's place trying to watch the program too but GMA News in Manila gave me the wrong time. I stayed there too long waiting for it and ended up missing my flight back to Guam this evening. Sheesh!
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#1112 Postby leanne_uk » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:49 pm

Have a safe trip tomorrow Jim. Bad times missing your flight tho :roll:
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Re:

#1113 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:38 pm

HURAKAN wrote:windrunner, that image is a little bit deceptive. If you look at this one, the 55 knots looks high.


You have a point there - I suppose that's what I get for posting before I really wake up on a Saturday 8-) . Possibly the eye feature might be a sign of it beginning to interact with the baroclinic zone to its north and west, and definitely supports the JTWC mention of dry air entrainment.


Also, the classifications did bump to 3.5...

Code: Select all

  24/1430 UTC   23.2N    126.3E       T3.5/3.5         LUPIT 
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1114 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:08 pm

JMA and JTWC are also up to T3.5.

No further intensification expected now.

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 23.4N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 230NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 25.1N 129.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 261800UTC 26.4N 132.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 271800UTC 27.2N 134.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
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Re: Re:

#1115 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 3:21 pm

WindRunner wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:windrunner, that image is a little bit deceptive. If you look at this one, the 55 knots looks high.


You have a point there - I suppose that's what I get for posting before I really wake up on a Saturday 8-) . Possibly the eye feature might be a sign of it beginning to interact with the baroclinic zone to its north and west, and definitely supports the JTWC mention of dry air entrainment.


Also, the classifications did bump to 3.5...

Code: Select all

  24/1430 UTC   23.2N    126.3E       T3.5/3.5         LUPIT 


I think you were right here, windrunner. This now appears to be a classic extratropical transition, where the "eye" is a combination of the old tropical warm core and a mid-latitude warm air seclusion. I annotated the IR sateliite from 1030Z to show what's going on and added the latest IR satellite. It's become more clear that it's going extratropical. The "eye" is not surrounded by tall convection/thunderstorms as it must be for a warm-core system; the center has absorbed some dry and cooler air and the storm is now attaching to the tail end of that stationary/cold front to the north. Due to all of this, I can't see it ever coming back due to any kind of detachment of the LLC. It will move off along the front as a vigorous extrtropical low.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1116 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 3:34 pm

JTE50 wrote:
I was at a friend's place trying to watch the program too but GMA News in Manila gave me the wrong time. I stayed there too long waiting for it and ended up missing my flight back to Guam this evening. Sheesh!


That's too bad, Jim. You did a great job, man, and I really liked your pics.
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1117 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 5:32 pm

I see the JTWC has come back around and dropped that decoupling stuff. You can't get that scenario with an extratropical low, or at least I've never seen or heard of it (Correct me if I'm wrong.) And this is already transitioning as I pointed out earlier.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1118 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 5:36 pm

BTW, it looks like the southernmost islands (Sakishima) could get hit with some very heavy thunderstorms on the northwestern quadrant of LUPIT. There's a large cluster of impressive convection in that quadrant due to a persistant area of maximum vorticity. It doesn't look like it will reach Okinawa as it turns more easterly over the next 12 hours, but it's worth watching.

I don't know if we know anyone there, but they should brace for some possibly damaging winds. Tropical storms can easily produce hurricane force gusts within their thunderstorm clusters, and those look pretty wicked.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#1119 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 5:58 pm

JTE50 wrote:
oaba09 wrote:
JTE50 wrote:I am in Manila waiting for my 11pm flight back to Guam. Lots of press from Aparri caught the flight from Tuguegarao to Manila. GMA Channel 7 and 2 in Manila. Aljazeera from Malaysia, and some others. CNN from Bangkok, Thailand made it as far as Tuguegarao. If you live in Manila, tune in to GMA from 8:30-9pm. I'll be on the News. I had a wonder experience with the Filipino people on this trip.


Saw you on the news jim... :D


I was at a friend's place trying to watch the program too but GMA News in Manila gave me the wrong time. I stayed there too long waiting for it and ended up missing my flight back to Guam this evening. Sheesh!


Haha! at least you get to enjoy more of the Philippines :lol:
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#1120 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:05 pm

It looks like it is still trying to strengthen
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