WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

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ozonepete
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#1121 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:15 pm

StormingB81 wrote:It looks like it is still trying to strengthen
It is "trying", and it may even strengthen again a little, but it can't be a real typhoon anymore. It has started turning into what we call an extratropical low. When a typhoon or TS starts moving up into the mid-latitudes and cool dry air comes in from the west and into its circulation, it changes from having a warm center surrounded by a ring of tall thunderstorms to a system driven by the temperature difference between cold air to the west and warm air to the east. These can be very strong, but they don't have a warm eye and are no longer considered tropical systems. The agency such as the JTWC or NHC will often still keep the name for a while, but they stop issuing advisories once the transition is complete. At that point the local weather offices take over the forecasting and warning duties.
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#1122 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:25 pm

Learned something new. Thank you.
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Re:

#1123 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:34 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Learned something new. Thank you.
You're welcome. Listen, it's now starting to look like you might get a really good blow from the northwestern edge of this thing. I would not rule out hurricane force gusts because there are very strong thunderstorms on the northwest side of it. Just thought you should have a heads up. Are you getting any warnings from the JMA?

It would be around 6Z on the 25th or maybe a little sooner. I'm just saying it's a possibility.

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#1124 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:39 pm

We havent gotten anything. I am suprised they havent put us in a TCCOR just to be safe
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Re:

#1125 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:43 pm

StormingB81 wrote:We havent gotten anything. I am suprised they havent put us in a TCCOR just to be safe
Yeah, me too. If not a TCCOR at least a special advisory, because IF it keeps this intensity and stays close enough, you could easily get some high winds. These forecasts are the toughest of all because you're right on the borderline, but I always believe in playing it safe.
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#1126 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:46 pm

Image

Getting a baroclinic boost
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#1127 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:47 pm

When I was in mainland The first Typhoon I went through I remember good because I went to bed Sunday night in TCCOR 4 and woke up in TCCOR 1. We went to work. 2 hours later they sent us home with the Sirens already going off. Next storm we were home by TCCOR 1 and I wasl ike yep someone learned their leson
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#1128 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:49 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.8N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.5N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 28.8N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 32.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 42.9N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 127.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST REASONING AND TRACK HAVE
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE WARNING NR 043 TO REFLECT A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM THAT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) THAT IS
CAUSING TS LUPIT TO TILT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST, ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BANDING EYE
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE METSAT IMAGERY WHILE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD (55
KNOTS) DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN A
241744Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TS LUPIT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, AS LUPIT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAIN JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL
ENABLE LUPIT TO DEVELOP INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WITH
TRANSITION COMPLETE BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SCENARIO AND NO
LONGER INDICATES DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
NNNN
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#1129 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:51 pm

ZCZC 080
WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 23.8N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 25.6N 130.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 261800UTC 26.4N 132.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 271800UTC 27.2N 134.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
NNNN
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#1130 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 24, 2009 6:53 pm

Image

Latest
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Re:

#1131 Postby Cookie » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:07 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Getting a baroclinic boost


sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?
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Re:

#1132 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:07 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Getting a baroclinic boost


Exactly. Although the microwave shows a nice "eye" feature, there's a lot of continental polar air involved at this point and this is obviously attached to the stationary front now. Personally I prefer to keep calling it by its name and treating it as tropical as far as warnings go until the winds die down, but I understand why they don't.
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#1133 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:07 pm

Winds are starting to pick up here on Okinawa
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Re: Re:

#1134 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:11 pm

Cookie wrote:
sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?


Baroclinic means due to a temperature difference across an horizontal area. It means the storm is starting to get structured like a mid-latitude low, i.e. like a nor'easter. Sometimnes when this happens, the extra added energy of cooler continental air pushing into wamer tropical air can cause a tropical system to boost up when it normally would have been declining.
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Re: Re:

#1135 Postby Cookie » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:13 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Cookie wrote:
sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?


Baroclinic means due to a temperature difference across an horizontal area. It means the storm is starting to get structured like a mid-latitude low, i.e. like a nor'easter. Sometimnes when this happens, the extra added energy of cooler continental air pushing into wamer tropical air can cause a tropical system to boost up when it normally would have been declining.


thanks mate, explained very well

my brain is mush at the moment, been a long day
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Re: Re:

#1136 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:14 pm

Cookie wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Cookie wrote:
sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?


Baroclinic means due to a temperature difference across an horizontal area. It means the storm is starting to get structured like a mid-latitude low, i.e. like a nor'easter. Sometimnes when this happens, the extra added energy of cooler continental air pushing into wamer tropical air can cause a tropical system to boost up when it normally would have been declining.


thanks mate, explained very well

my brain is mush at the moment, been a long day


i know the feeling... :)
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Re: Re:

#1137 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:18 pm

Cookie wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Getting a baroclinic boost


sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?


Baroclinic just refers to a temperature gradient - in this case, that's just the approaching cold front from the northwest. These serve as energy sources either in creating their own weather with rain/storms along the front or enhancing other storms nearby. As you can see in the various satellite images, the system is beginning to look more and more like a mid-latitude cyclone. Specifically, the circulation is becoming elongated along a SW-NE axis (due to winds from the SW at all levels ahead of the front) and the precip/convection is beginning to focus itself in the northern and western parts of the storm - much like the comma head feature you see in that part of a mature, usually occluded storm. Also of note is the developing frontal boundary to the system's north and east - it was drawn in on the surface analysis someone posted farther up this thread, and it should soon become fully entangled in Lupit, hence completing the transition to an extratropical cyclone.

edit: lol, looks like i got outposted while i was creating my long-winded blabber... :D
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Re: Re:

#1138 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:30 pm

WindRunner wrote:
edit: lol, looks like i got outposted while i was creating my long-winded blabber... :D


LOL too. You are too funny! Not only not long-winded but on the money. I am really enjoying your posts. You obviously really know your stuff. Just great. :)
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Re: Re:

#1139 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:54 pm

ozonepete wrote:Personally I prefer to keep calling it by its name and treating it as tropical as far as warnings go until the winds die down, but I understand why they don't.


Actually, RSMC Tokyo tends to continue warning on systems as tropical cyclones until only after transition is fully complete and there are no more hints of a warm core, usually resulting on the JMA warning on an X-knot severe TS which looks like crap and on which the JTWC stopped warnings for ages ago.
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#1140 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:08 pm

00z bulletin:

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 24.3N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 280NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 25.8N 131.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 270000UTC 27.3N 134.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 280000UTC 29.1N 138.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

JMA are now issuing hourly bulletins due to the Japanese threat.
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