EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

RICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN
A LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY
AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
RAGGED EYEWALL DEVELOPING IN THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES. BASED
ON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM
TAFB.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS SHEAR TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND RICK TRAVERSES WATERS
NEAR 30C. THE HWRF SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN 36 HOURS AND THE GFDL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN BRINGING RICK
TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. USING A BLEND OF THESE DYNAMICAL MODELS
AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICK
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOMING
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AT DAY 3 AND
BEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A SHORTWAVE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS...HWRF AND GFDL...REMAIN FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET AND NOGAPS...REMAIN
ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW LESS OF A
NORTHWARD TURN...OR NONE AT ALL. OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AT THESE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.

THE 34-KT WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS MODIFIED
BASED ON A 40-KT WIND OBSERVATION FROM SHIP A8BZ6 LOCATED ABOUT 40
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 12.5N 98.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.3N 101.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.8N 103.2W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 105.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

EP, 20, 2009101612, , BEST, 0, 126N, 990W, 60, 991, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[MGC]

Rick is getting it together this morning. Lots of convection and Rick's satellite presentation continues to improve. Outflow looks good in all quads. Rick should make hurricane later today......MGC

[oaba09]

Is this a potentially powerful hurricane?

[Macrocane]

Is this a potentially powerful hurricane?

Yes it is, models have been very consistent intensifying Rick into a major hurricane, wind shear will be very low and SST are high, although it is expected to weaken before making landfall.

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

Impressive system

[HURAKAN]

668
NOUS42 KNHC 161300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 16 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-141

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
DMG

Still too far from potential landfall for missions to be scheduled

[HURAKAN]

483
WTPZ45 KNHC 161438
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

RICK IS RAPIDLY SPINNING UP THIS MORNING AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER. BASED UPON
THIS STRUCTURE...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN FROM SAB AND TAFB AT
T3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65
KT...MAKING RICK THE 7TH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

RICK IS MOVING 280/08...WHILE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTINUE
STEERING RICK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN WHETHER RICK
WILL CONTINUE AS A STRAIGHT-MOVER...SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY...OR RECURVE
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL AND
HWRF...ARE CALLING FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE
BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN UNREALISTICALLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...SOUTHWESTWARD...OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS ALSO
SHIFTED SOME TO THE LEFT.

RICK IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
ABUNDANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. RICK IS ALSO TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM...30C...WATERS.
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
CHANCE...74%...OF 30 KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING RICK'S WINDS TO 90 KT TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS RICK PEAKING AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE SSTS ENCOUNTERED BY RICK SHOULD COOL
SOME WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOME. WEAKENING TO A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IS THUS INDICATED BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.7N 99.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 12.9N 100.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.3N 102.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 104.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W 115 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Eye beginning to pop out

[Macrocane]

Beautiful structure.

[srainhoutx]

[tolakram]

[leanne_uk]

Wow Rick really has gone from strength to strength very quickly. Impressive to see happening and I cant wait to see its progression

[cycloneye]

Wow Rick really has gone from strength to strength very quickly. Impressive to see happening and I cant wait to see its progression

Yes,from invest status at this time (2:20 PM EDT) yesterday to now is a huge jump in intensity.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing that a pinhole eye is going to pop from that central CDO soon...

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 20, 2009101618, , BEST, 0, 128N, 996W, 70, 984, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't see the pinhole eye yet but...Big Rick. This would be a scary hurricane if it was in the Atlantic.

[tolakram]