EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[leanne_uk]

Looking Very impressive already. Looking forward to watching this system progress.

[srainhoutx]

[Iune]

Impressive! indeed this storm has the potential to overtake Jimena as the strongest cyclone in the western hemisphere and maybe even Choi-wan.

You mean Melor, it over took Choi-wan about a week or so ago.

[CrazyC83]

Looking Very impressive already. Looking forward to watching this system progress.

Except if it makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

Best Track says hello to Tropical Storm Rick.

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 20, 2009101600, , BEST, 0, 123N, 973W, 40, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

Best Track says hello to Tropical Storm Rick.

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 20, 2009101600, , BEST, 0, 123N, 973W, 40, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

Even that is probably conservative.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 160036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY (EP202009) 20091016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091016 0000 091016 1200 091017 0000 091017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.1N 100.6W 13.2N 103.1W
BAMD 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.7W 13.4N 100.2W 14.1N 101.9W
BAMM 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.3N 100.5W 13.8N 102.6W
LBAR 12.3N 97.3W 12.8N 98.9W 13.3N 100.7W 14.0N 102.5W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS
DSHP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091018 0000 091019 0000 091020 0000 091021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 106.1W 13.9N 111.5W 14.2N 113.5W 17.3N 112.3W
BAMD 14.9N 103.9W 17.1N 108.4W 19.6N 112.2W 21.2N 114.8W
BAMM 14.4N 105.1W 15.8N 110.5W 16.2N 114.5W 16.2N 113.7W
LBAR 14.9N 104.2W 16.4N 107.5W 18.2N 110.0W 21.2N 111.3W
SHIP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS
DSHP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

Ricky

[HURAKAN]

40 knots? Maybe we need to rethink that.

[leanne_uk]

Looking Very impressive already. Looking forward to watching this system progress.

Except if it makes landfall.

Yup dont want it to make landfall. Dont like the idea of lives being endangered. I am just happy to track a fish

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

That's such an agressive intensity forecast on the first advisory, I have rarely seen that. As someone said it could be the storm of the season on the western hemisphere and yet another threat to Baja. This system needs to be watched very carefully.

[Derek Ortt]

I've made a few initial intensity forecasts that high

However, they usually turned out too low

[MGC]

TD? TS easy....very well structured this evening. Excellent banding and looks like the core is getting organized quite well. Would not be surprised if the 100KTS is a bit on the low side. Hopefully it stays offshore......MGC

[HURAKAN]

347
WTPZ35 KNHC 160235
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2009

...RICK INTENSIFYING QUICKLY...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RICK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.4N 97.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


151
WTPZ45 KNHC 160235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM RICK. BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...WITH EVIDENCE OF A PRECURSORY INNER
CORE FORMING FROM A SSMI IMAGE AT 0030 UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...WITH THE LATEST AMSU ESTIMATES
EVEN HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT AS A BLEND
OF THESE DATA.

THE MAIN INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS NOT IF RICK WILL
INTENSIFY...BUT HOW QUICKLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXCEPTIONALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SSTS OF ABOUT 30C...ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN AVERAGE...LIGHT
SHEAR...AND HIGH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY SHOWING AN 82
PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ABOUT 11 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN. WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...STARTING FROM A SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 40 KT. LATER ON...
ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS RICK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY
WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE HWRF SHOWS AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THAN
THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND COULD EXPERIENCE
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED
AT THAT TIME...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. RICK SHOULD BE STEERED BY A
LARGE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...KEEPING THE STORM ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH
COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LONGER-TERM AS THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL/HWRF/
GFDN...SHOW RICK GAINING ENOUGH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO
ALLOW IT TO TURN EARLIER AND APPROACH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONGER FOR A
LONGER TERM PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN RICK REMAINING WELL
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY DAY FIVE. IT IS A LITTLE
UNUSUAL TO SEE THE HURRICANE MODELS HAVE SUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THAT DOES NOT LEND CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
MORE SKILLFUL THAN THE REGIONAL MODELS SO FAR THIS SEASON...AND THIS
TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.4N 97.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 98.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.3N 100.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 13.8N 102.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.3N 104.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 112.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm RICK!


Edit sorry. Hurrakan beat me.

[HURAKAN]

Ricky track

[HURAKAN]

"Looks" like a hurricane already

[tolakram]

This is really going to be something to watch. I knew conditions looked perfect to an amateur but the NHC confirmed that they really are nearly perfect. Lets hope it turns into a spectacular storm and then gets ripped apart before it can do any major harm to anyone.

[Ptarmigan]

Some models I have seen have it making landfall on Mexico. It may give Texas rain.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad