EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[Cyclenall]

Truly a monster Epac hurricane bombing...classic in October. As the NHC noted, the conditions are near perfect and this was also small when it started to spin up. I'm also pleased that the NHC is not being conservative with the intensity and was bullish on their 2nd advisory. Will Rick challenge Jimena?

Notice how fast the inner bands are wrapping around the center and spurring more deep convection? Send recon now please!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

RICK IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY
INCREASING 40-45 KT SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
NEAR 14Z SHOWED AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING...AND THE EYE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HRS. DURING THAT TIME...THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK FORECASTS BECOME DIVERGENT AT THAT POINT. THE
GFDL...HWRF...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
BEFORE 120 HRS. THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFDN MODELS SHOW A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AS IT
APPEARS THE MODEL PREMATURELY SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF RICK.
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
AFTER 72 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED SUIT. THE
TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HRS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

RICK REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS FORECASTING
PEAK INTENSITIES NEAR 125 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
125 KT IN 48 HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF. HOWEVER...
RICK HAS DEVELOPED FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. UNLESS
DEVELOPMENT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AN
ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT APPROACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT
AREA...WHICH IS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH. REGARDLESS OF THE PEAK
INTENSITY...AFTER 48-72 HRS RICK SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
START A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.0N 100.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 13.2N 101.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 13.7N 103.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 105.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[breeze]

Just curious - why is recon not going out right now? Are they waiting until a landfall becomes
imminent?

[CrazyC83]

75 kt seems reasonable right now, my guess is the pressure is 973mb due to its large size (although the central circulation appears to be small).

Once the eye pops out, I think Rick will bomb out.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm

[HurricaneRobert]

There's the pinhole eye.

[ozonepete]

Beautiful storm

Yeah, together with low shear and high OHC, that symmetry is a good indicator that we could very well have a cat 5 before all is said and done.

[srainhoutx]

[Crostorm]

[Cookie]

good to see hurricane rick living up to my name!

[breeze]

good to see hurricane rick living up to my name!

LOL, cookie, I hope you're not as baaaad as this storm appears to be!

[cycloneye]

Getting more stronger.

00 UTC Best Track=85kts

EP, 20, 2009101700, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1005W, 85, 975, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

073
WHXX01 KMIA 170029
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC SAT OCT 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009) 20091017 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091017 0000 091017 1200 091018 0000 091018 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 100.5W 13.9N 102.7W 14.5N 105.7W 15.3N 109.1W
BAMD 13.2N 100.5W 13.9N 102.3W 14.8N 104.3W 15.9N 106.7W
BAMM 13.2N 100.5W 14.0N 102.5W 14.8N 104.9W 15.7N 107.8W
LBAR 13.2N 100.5W 13.9N 102.2W 14.7N 104.0W 15.3N 105.9W
SHIP 85KTS 102KTS 112KTS 117KTS
DSHP 85KTS 102KTS 112KTS 117KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091019 0000 091020 0000 091021 0000 091022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 112.3W 14.9N 116.7W 14.3N 113.8W 20.1N 109.1W
BAMD 17.1N 109.1W 19.7N 113.1W 21.7N 115.7W 22.5N 117.1W
BAMM 16.7N 110.8W 17.4N 115.4W 15.9N 115.9W 19.5N 110.7W
LBAR 16.0N 107.6W 17.5N 110.9W 19.6N 112.9W 23.3N 113.0W
SHIP 119KTS 110KTS 98KTS 83KTS
DSHP 119KTS 110KTS 98KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 100.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 99.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 97.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

[ozonepete]

Thanks for that, cycloneye. Looks like the models are starting to move towards another Baja landfall. And of course, the further south it hits, the stronger it will be. Not a good turn of events.

[HURAKAN]

boom boom pow

[CrazyC83]

The closed eye is very ominous now.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[srainhoutx]

Agreed. Rapid IRC tonight IMHO. Worth watching for "Tropical Watchers".

[cycloneye]

29
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

...RICK NABS ATTENTION WITH ITS RAPID EVOLUTION...INTERESTS IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE HURRICANE...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES
...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RICK ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.3N 101.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

29
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO APPARENT EYE ON IR IMAGES YET...RECENT SSMI AND
SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A QUITE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THIS
NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION THAT THE EYE WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP
CLEARLY ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. THE
OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IMPLYING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON 5.0 AND 4.5
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. MY PREDECESSORS HAVE
DESCRIBED AT LENGTH THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF RICK...AND THAT
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE FOR A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...
AND RICK IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS INDICATED ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY
OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY ERODED BY
THE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.
THE RESULTING STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK ON
A WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE HURRICANE
EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND BRINGS RICK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 101.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.7N 102.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W 115 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 109.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

I shudder to think what they could be waking up to tomorrow morning if that eye clears out...I could easily see it going into explosive deepening...