EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#401 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:NHC always seems to be slow in weakening a storm. 85kts is extremely generous for a system with an exposed center. At the rate it's going, and with all that dry air and shear it's facing, it may be a weak TS when it reaches Baja. Good news for them.


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I would have gone with 70 kt at the advisory. At the time Recon visited, that assumption could have been made but still would have only supported 75 kt, and I presume that it weakened a bit more in the ensuing 3 hours.

My guess is that it peaked at 0600Z October 18 (155 kt / 906mb). Since then (all are lower than the BT):

18/0600 - 155 kt / 906mb
18/1200 - 145 kt / 915mb
18/1800 - 130 kt / 924mb
19/0000 - 115 kt / 935mb
19/0600 - 105 kt / 942mb
19/1200 - 90 kt / 957mb
19/1800 - 75 kt / 972mb
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#402 Postby Cookie » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:03 pm

what do these numbers mean? sorry
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE RICK (20E)

#403 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 7:19 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 192336
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...RICK STILL WEAKENING...NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES
...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.8N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

Derek,do you think is still a hurricane? I dont think so.
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#404 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 19, 2009 7:21 pm

the thing is not a hurricane. I'll probably go about 50-55KT in the evening nwhhc update

this reminds me of Madeline
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Re:

#405 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Oct 19, 2009 7:42 pm

Cookie wrote:what do these numbers mean? sorry

To decode the data yourself, you can learn more about it here...

HDOB Reconnaissance Decoding:
viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

Dropsonde Reconnaissance Decoding:
viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97379

Or for more complicated technical info:
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/09/nhop09.htm
In Appendix G.

Or you can use an online decoder to decode messages:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
http://flhurricane.com/recon/ - Vortex Messages

----------------------------------------------------------------------

HURAKAN wrote:Still far and the Google RECON graphic is not updating.

The Tropical Atlantic recon flight path only works for Atlantic messages. For the first part of the Rick mission, it came across as Atlantic messages. After that it came across on Pacific messages. For significant storms, you can find that data here:

http://tropicalglobe.com/recon/pacific/eastandcentral/

It is not always live, only for systems that pose a threat. If you see a system out there and the system is not live, email me.

Later I delete the early Pacific data on the Tropical Atlantic site so that the site only has Atlantic storms. I also add the early flight data that came across on the Atlantic site to the full mission path on the Tropical Globe site so that the full East Pacific mission is available.
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Re:

#406 Postby Iune » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the thing is not a hurricane. I'll probably go about 50-55KT in the evening nwhhc update

this reminds me of Madeline

Which one, 1998's or 1976's ?
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Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

Derek Ortt

#407 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:44 pm

1998
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#408 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:25 pm

Image

WOW. México got really lucky
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Re:

#409 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:26 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:1998


Image
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#410 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:49 pm

200249
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...WATCHES ADJUSTED FOR SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM LA
PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF AGUA
BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND NORTH OF LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY FOR THE
COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 290
MILES...465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
55 MILES... 90 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...WITH A
GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SOCORRO
ISLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 200251
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

RICK HAS BEEN WEAKENING AT A RAPID PACE...ALMOST AS FAST AS IT
STRENGTHENED SEVERAL DAYS AGO. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF A SHAPELESS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5/4.5 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...BUT BOTH AGENCIES WERE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES AND
ACTUALLY HAD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
UW-CIMMS ADT 3-HOUR ESTIMATE IS 3.1 WITH A CI OF 3.6. THEREFORE...
RICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY...STABLE AIR TO THE WEST
OF RICK ARE THE LIKELY CAUSES FOR THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RICK OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE AND
THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE...RICK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND...BUT IT IS STILL HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. ALL IN ALL...IT IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. RICK IS STILL FORECAST TO
BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
TOWARDS THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

RICK IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350 DEGREES
AT 7 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS RICK GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAVE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CENTER OF RICK PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH DUE TO THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 19.1N 111.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 23.0N 108.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 106.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN






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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#411 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:58 pm

Hey wxman57, did you use you raid against tropical cyclones over Rick? :lol:
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#412 Postby lrak » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 pm

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#413 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:18 pm

Image

Hard times for Rick
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#414 Postby breeze » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:32 pm

Macrocane wrote:Hey wxman57, did you use you raid against tropical cyclones over Rick? :lol:


:uarrow: LOL! Rick went down in a hurry - makes you suspicious, doesn't it? :lol:
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#415 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:26 am

I believe the user who asked whether this would be a category 5 at landfall clearly has his/her answer just by looking at the latest image of Rick, lol. Not only that, but you can also research into the number of times a category 5 storm has made landfall on the Baja peninsula to get the % by substituting that number for a %. It seems like Rick wanted to weaken as fast as it strengthened but I have never seen a 155 knot hurricane go down that fast even in those conditions.
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#416 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:00 am

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK
CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CLOUD
PATTERN APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST. DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...
SUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING HAS CONTINUED. BASED UPON THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT 15-20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES OVER RICK...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH LANDFALL. IN ADDITION....A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS AT MID/UPPER-LEVELS LIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL...GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...EVEN THOUGH SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST RICK
TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RICK MAY HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 020/05. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE
SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RICK TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
FARTHER EAST TO MATCH THE TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...BOTH SUGGESTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE. ON THIS
TRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND INLAND OVER WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO JUST
AFTER 36 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.4N 111.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.6N 110.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 109.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.6N 107.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 25.5N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#417 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 6:58 am

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165 MILES...270 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.7N 111.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#418 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:54 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201453
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RICK HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS
TO -80 C IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE A UNANIMOUS 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE RICK AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF RICK LATER TODAY.

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF RICK PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW
STEADY WEAKENING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING BACK TO A HURRICANE IN THE
SHORT-TERM. SINCE SHEAR MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK...
THIS FORECAST WILL HOLD RICK STEADY-STATE THROUGH LANDFALL RATHER
THAN SHOWING WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
BECOME DECOUPLED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICK IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH THE
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL CAUSE RICK TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER TO TREND TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 20.1N 110.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 21.1N 109.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 22.7N 107.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 105.3W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1200Z 26.4N 102.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

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HURAKAN
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#419 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:01 am

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#420 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:19 am

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Rick meets shear. Shear almost kills Rick
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