EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#421 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS RICK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.0N 110.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#422 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:34 pm

WTPZ45 KNHC 202032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB. IN
ADDITION...THE PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATED FROM THE SFMR WAS 55 KT
WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AGAIN HELD AT 55 KT. RICK IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT
20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL NO
LONGER SHOWS MUCH DECREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE IT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER
LANDFALL...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.

AIRCRAFT FIXES AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION OF 045/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEER RICK
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 110.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 23.2N 106.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 25.2N 103.9W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5081
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re:

#423 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Oct 20, 2009 3:52 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Rick meets shear. Shear almost kills Rick


Good animation. Watching Rick from a mighty Category 5 to tropical storm. The mighty have fallen.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#424 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 6:54 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 202350
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...RICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...FOR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA
VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 275 MILES
...445 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.6N 109.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6854
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#425 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:15 pm

Rick may make a run at Hurricane Status again prior to landfall...

Image
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#426 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:20 pm

Image

If you run in the same direction the shear is blowing, the effect lessens. Example, Wilma before impacting Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6854
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re:

#427 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

If you run in the same direction the shear is blowing, the effect lessens. Example, Wilma before impacting Florida.

Exactly. Appears to be some RI happening along with some baroclinic enhancement as well.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1494
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re:

#428 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:32 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Rick meets shear. Shear almost kills Rick


Good animation....amazing....
0 likes   

bombarderoazul
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#429 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:18 pm

Cloud tops are cooling so it might have a chance at landfall as a weak hurricane.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#430 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:23 pm

Image

Image

Latest
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27384
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#431 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:28 pm

I'd at least bump it back to 60 kt. But the eye needs to be better defined before returning it to cane status.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6854
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#432 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:33 pm

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  21 OCT 2009    Time :   013000 UTC
      Lat :   21:19:07 N     Lon :  109:42:18 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.7 / 992.1mb/ 59.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                3.7     3.7     4.0

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.9mb

 Center Temp : -77.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
KHOU Regional Weather Forum
http://forums.khou.com/index.php

Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#433 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:36 pm


574
WTPZ25 KNHC 210236
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN



105
WTPZ35 KNHC 210236
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

...RAINS FROM RICK ALREADY AFFECTING MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IMPACT MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL...
AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#434 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:40 pm

117
WTPZ45 KNHC 210238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH RICK AS VERY
DEEP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED ON THE INFRARED
CHANNEL...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR
WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...AND SO WILL
THE INTITIAL WIND SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIKELY
CANCELLING OUT THE EFFECTS OF WARMER WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL...
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE RAPID AS RICK RUNS INTO THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HR.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT...
BUT AN ESTIMATE OF 050/10 IS USED AS A COMPROMISE OF CONVENTIONAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICK NORTHEASTWARD AND CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO DECOUPLE...
LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THAT SITUATION OCCURS...THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 109.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 23.7N 105.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 103.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#435 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:15 am

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH RICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A SHIELD OF PULSATING DEEP
CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE...WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT
TO ITS SOUTHEAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH A
0148 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED A MAX INTENSITY OF AT LEAST
55 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE NEARLY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER RICK...AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE
PROHIBITIVELY HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING PRIOR
TO LANDFALL IN SPITE OF SSTS WARMING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 24-36 HOURS ONCE THE CENTER QUICKLY MOVES
WELL INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

THE CENTER REMAINS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND...EVEN WITH
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS
TO HAVE INCREASED AND IS ESTIMATED AT 050/12. AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD STEER RICK ON A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED...AT
LEAST UNTIL LANDFALL...WHEN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
RICK WILL SHEAR APART.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.8N 108.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 23.1N 106.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 24.3N 104.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#436 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:06 am

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 211137
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
500 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

...RICK WEAKENING FAST AS IT NEARS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...IN THIS CASE...
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

RICK HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK WILL
BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATES
OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO TODAY...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.3N 107.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM RICK (20E)

#437 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:04 am

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO AND SATELLITE
IMAGES...THE CENTER OF RICK HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 1200 UTC TO THE SOUTHWEST MORE RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THIS SITE
MEASURED A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB NEAR 1200 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA AND
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 45 KT. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...RICK IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KT.

A 0900 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED TO
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS
INCREASED AND RICK IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 23.4N 106.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#438 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:23 pm

Image

Completely inland
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

#439 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:01 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 211742
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

...RICK WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...

AT 11 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...NORTHEAST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17
MPH...27 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.9N 105.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114730
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

#440 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:32 pm

Last Advisory

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 212031
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2009

...RICK HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF RICK WERE ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240
KM...NORTHEAST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE REMNANTS OF RICK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RICK WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.5N 104.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests