CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

[HURAKAN]

Very well formed system

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be a pinhole eye trying to form.

[HURAKAN]

CP, 03, 2009102018, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1636W, 60, 1000, TS

It looks like a hurricane already

[HURAKAN]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:26 N Lon : 163:59:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 991.9mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.1 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Given the pinhole eye, yeah I agree it is more likely 65-70 kt. Given the small size and high ambient pressure, my pressure guess is 997mb despite my thinking it is a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

what pressure to wind relation are they using? This came from the monsoon trough. Shouldn't pressures be LOWER than usual instead of higher?

[CrazyC83]

what pressure to wind relation are they using? This came from the monsoon trough. Shouldn't pressures be LOWER than usual instead of higher?

I'm not sure, they must analyze a deep ridge in the area. What does SHIPS have as the outermost isobar?

Normally, 60 kt at low latitudes = about 992mb.

[HURAKAN]

Neki = beautiful

[cycloneye]

Hawaii dodged a big bullet.

[Derek Ortt]

they are lucky this moved as fast as it did when the models had it moving slowly. Or else, the NW track would have taken it near Kauai

[cycloneye]

WTPA42 PHFO 202109
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

NEKI CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND
IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH
THE RECENT FIXES COMING IN AT 3.5 FROM CPHC AND SAB...4.0 FROM
JTWC...AND 3.7 FROM CIMSS ADT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE DATA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.

NEKI IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TROUGHS MOVING WITHIN A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG 25N TO THE NORTH OF NEKI. AS A
RESULT...NEKI WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS SCENARIO
BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS...THE
TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE
TVCN AND RECENTLY WELL-PERFORMING HWRF AND GFDL. THIS TRACK KEEPS
NEKI WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT BRINGS IT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
SST VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN ANTICYCLONE SITTING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

BEYOND 72 HOURS...NEKI IS FORECAST TO ENTER A REGION OF WEAK
STEERING AND INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONDITIONS. THE SPREAD OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES CONSIDERABLE AS NEKI WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COL REGION BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND WEST. AS A RESULT...THE TURN TO THE WEST HAS BEEN
DELAYED...CAUSING A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE TRACK TO BE CLOSE TO
THE TVCN AND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. A SLOW WEAKENING
IS IN THE FORECAST AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY COME INTO PLAY. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE TRACK WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND MARO REEF. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALL ISLANDS AND SHOALS WITHIN THE MONUMENT
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.4N 164.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 165.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.4N 166.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 18.6N 167.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 19.6N 167.9W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.4N 168.8W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 22.9N 169.8W 95 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 23.9N 171.4W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[HURAKAN]

EYE is out

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Now a hurricane.

000
WTPA32 PHFO 202358
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
200 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

...NEKI STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.8 WEST OR ABOUT
630 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 340 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. NEKI WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NEKI. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TODAY.


...SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 164.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...77 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[HURAKAN]

First time I see 77 mph!!!

[HURAKAN]

21/0000 UTC 15.0N 164.8W T4.0/4.0 NEKI -- Central Pacific



Nice storm

[hawaiigirl]

anyone think what's next door to Neki will develop into a hurricane?

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii dodged a big bullet.

Dont we always do .

1. Felicia
2. Guillermo
3. Neki

[CrazyC83]

First time I see 77 mph!!!

Probably a typo.

[HURAKAN]

First time I see 77 mph!!!

Probably a typo.

I think so too!!!