CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:42 pm

Slowly organizing.

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#42 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:46 pm

this is the system the models had been developing. However, the tracks have shifted well to the west of before. There must have been more ridging to the north of the system the past couple of days, which let it move farther to the west than initially expected
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:26 pm

19/0000 UTC 8.7N 156.5W T2.0/2.0 03C -- Central Pacific

30 KNOTS
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#44 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:48 pm

Could this hook back to the west late like Ioke did (and others, such as Oliwa and Paka)?
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:51 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 157.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 157.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 156.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 9.7N 159.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.6N 164.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.0N 166.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 35SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 170.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 173.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.8N 157.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON





TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C HAS CONTINUED TRACKING WEST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THREE-C REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A
GOOD CURVED BAND STRUCTURE...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THIS
MORNING. THE 00Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM SAB...CPHC AND JTWC WERE
CLOSE TOGETHER AND FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED BASED ON THE 18Z
FIXES. WE SUSPECT THE 18Z POSTION MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR EAST AND WE
HAVE RE-BESTED THE POSITION FARTHER WEST. SHIPS GUIDANCE AT 00Z
SHOWED A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BUT THE WARMING
OF THE CLOUD TOPS MAKES RI UNLIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM.

THREE-C HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST SINCE THIS MORNING...STEERED BY
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...A
STRONG TROUGH ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NEAR MIDWAY ARE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL
VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND STEER THREE-C ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST GRADUALLY CURVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUCH A TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. WE
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR FORECAST TRACK...KEEPING
THREE-C MOVING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE FAVORED TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THREE-C
WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. THREE-C SHOULD REMAIN
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE TRACK DOES
TAKE IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND IN ABOUT 84 HOURS. THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHAT EFFECT THREE-C MIGHT HAVE ON
JOHNSTON BUT IF OUR FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WE MIGHT NEED TO
CONSIDER A WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

THREE-C IS OVER 84 DEGREE F WATER...WHICH SHOULD BE AMPLE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY ONE OR TWO
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS ALONG OUR FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS STRONGER SHEAR...20 KT...INITIALLY WITH THE SHEAR
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH 96 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THREE-C INTENSIFYING STEADILY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE HAVE KEPT
THIS TREND IN OUR FORECAST BUT THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS MAKE US LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE INTENSITY TREND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 8.8N 157.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 9.7N 159.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 162.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 164.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 14.0N 166.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 168.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 18.0N 170.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 173.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON



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#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:58 pm

You posted the wrong advisory - that was the 11 am HST advisory.
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Re:

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2009 10:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:You posted the wrong advisory - that was the 11 am HST advisory.


5 PM there.
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:23 am

WTPA42 PHFO 190900
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 18 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS LIKELY A RARE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...WHICH SEEMS OUT OF PLACE FROM THE TYPICAL DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONES WE SEE HERE. IT ORIGINATED ALONG A VERY WELL
DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED FAR SOUTH OF THE
ALOHA STATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. JUST 24 HOURS AGO...THE PRECURSOR
CLOUD SYSTEM FOR THREE-C WAS AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED MONSOON GYRE. THIS LARGE GYRE BECAME MORE CONCENTRATED
OVERNIGHT...AND BY 18/1500 UTC THIS MORNING IT HAD DEVELOPED A MUCH
MORE CIRCULAR APPEARANCE. OUR COLLEAGUES WHO DEAL WITH MANY
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN
TYPICALLY SEE THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ONE OR MORE TIMES PER YEAR.
THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE SLOW...BUT STEADY...
DEVELOPMENT OF THREE-C. THESE LARGE MONSOON SYSTEMS TEND TO DEVELOP
RATHER SLOWLY. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THEIR
POTENTIAL TO ULTIMATELY BECOME AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THREE-C HAD WARMED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAYTIME DIURNAL MINIMUM...THE COLDEST
THUNDERSTORM TOPS ARE NOW CLOSE TO MINUS 76C. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SIGNATURE OF THREE-C
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE DUE TO ITS LARGE SIZE. THIS
IS ALSO TRUE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW ABOVE THE
LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IS ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER THREE-C. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FOR THREE-C INDICATES 2 KT FROM 60
DEGREES. THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...JTWC AND SAB...WERE IN
RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE AGENCIES ALSO INDICATED T NUMBERS OF 1.5
TO 2.0. THE QUIKSCAT PASS APPEARED TO SHOW ONE 35 KT WIND BARB ABOUT
55 NM NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT 0600 UTC...HAVE MAINTAINED THREE-C AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE ONE REASON THREE-C IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE AT 275/17. THE CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL TRACK FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THREE-C WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEN WAS BLENDED
BACK TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST THEREAFTER.

MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE CIRA ANALYSIS...
ALONG WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C ALONG THREE-C/S
FORECAST TRACK...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IN
ADDITION...THE UW/CIMSS FORECAST INDICATES LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SYSTEM/S TRACK. THEREFORE...NUDGED THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST TOWARD THE ICON...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY TWO DAYS FROM NOW.

THREE-C REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...ANYONE IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
NEEDS TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TAKES THREE-C NEAR THAT ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A
HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 8.9N 158.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 9.6N 161.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 11.3N 163.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.9N 165.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 14.5N 167.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.4N 169.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 171.6W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 19.2N 174.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:29 am

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Looking good
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#50 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:08 am

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Convection getting more intense. Could be a tropical storm later today
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C

#51 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:08 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2009 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 9:07:00 N Lon : 159:37:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -23.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:38 am

CP, 03, 2009101912, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1589W, 35, 1006, TS

Aloha Neki
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:40 am

347
WHXX01 KMIA 191246
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1246 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEKI (CP032009) 20091019 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 1200 091020 0000 091020 1200 091021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 158.9W 10.4N 161.3W 11.7N 163.5W 13.0N 165.6W
BAMD 9.2N 158.9W 9.9N 161.8W 10.9N 164.5W 12.0N 166.9W
BAMM 9.2N 158.9W 10.0N 161.2W 11.1N 163.6W 12.3N 165.8W
LBAR 9.2N 158.9W 10.3N 161.3W 12.1N 163.7W 13.7N 166.2W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 58KTS 70KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 58KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 1200 091022 1200 091023 1200 091024 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 167.3W 15.8N 169.5W 16.7N 172.2W 17.7N 175.7W
BAMD 13.0N 168.5W 13.7N 170.6W 13.5N 174.0W 14.2N 178.8W
BAMM 13.3N 167.5W 14.4N 169.9W 15.0N 172.8W 15.9N 176.7W
LBAR 15.0N 168.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 78KTS 82KTS 79KTS 72KTS
DSHP 78KTS 82KTS 79KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 158.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 156.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 153.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:40 am

650
WTPA32 PHFO 191440
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST MON OCT 19 2009

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NEKI MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 159.6 WEST OR ABOUT
825 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND NEKI IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST...NEKI IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY
CLOSE TO JOHNSTON ISLAND WEDNESDAY. NEKI IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. ANYONE IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND IS
URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM...SINCE A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...9.5N 159.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON


568
WTPA22 PHFO 191435
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 159.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 159.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 158.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.0N 163.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 70SE 55SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.4N 166.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.8N 168.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...100NE 95SE 80SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.4N 170.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...110NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 18.0N 173.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.6N 175.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 159.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:57 am

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Very impressive!
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#56 Postby masaji79 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:18 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first CPAC season since 1982 to have 4 named CPAC systems?
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#57 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:20 am

The last 2 Neki's discussions have been very interesting, big and deadly Morakot formed in a similar way in WPAC earlier this season. Like CPHC said johnston island should watch carefully the prgress of Neki.
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#58 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:22 am

masaji79 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first CPAC season since 1982 to have 4 named CPAC systems?


It has been only 3 named systems: Lana, Maka and Neki
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL STORM NEKI (03C)

#59 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:23 am

masaji79 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first CPAC season since 1982 to have 4 named CPAC systems?


Remember that Lana was TD 06E, so in reality only three systems have developed in the CPAC. That's why Neki is 03C
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:12 pm

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Neki looks great
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