CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

[HURAKAN]

First Neki visible

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When that convective band on the right wraps around the centre Neki may begin to intensify in a more rapid trend than what we've seen since its formation. It reminds me a little to Rick when it was upgraded to tropical epression.

[HURAKAN]

599
WHXX01 KMIA 191852
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1852 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEKI (CP032009) 20091019 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091019 1800 091020 0600 091020 1800 091021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 159.1W 12.1N 161.4W 13.9N 163.4W 15.7N 164.9W
BAMD 10.3N 159.1W 11.6N 161.6W 13.1N 163.9W 14.6N 165.6W
BAMM 10.3N 159.1W 11.8N 161.4W 13.5N 163.3W 15.2N 164.8W
LBAR 10.3N 159.1W 12.1N 161.3W 14.1N 163.6W 15.3N 166.5W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 63KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 52KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091021 1800 091022 1800 091023 1800 091024 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 166.0W 19.7N 167.5W 21.8N 169.5W 23.9N 171.0W
BAMD 15.8N 166.6W 17.6N 167.7W 18.9N 169.1W 19.9N 171.5W
BAMM 16.8N 165.6W 19.0N 166.8W 20.8N 168.4W 22.3N 170.6W
LBAR 16.5N 167.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 69KTS 77KTS 74KTS 67KTS
DSHP 69KTS 77KTS 74KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 159.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 156.8W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 154.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

544
WTPA22 PHFO 192045
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 159.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 159.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 159.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.0N 161.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.7N 163.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 165.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 166.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...115NE 105SE 85SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.8N 167.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 115NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 169.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 172.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 159.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Ptarmigan]

Neki looks a bit like a sub-tropical system. I think Neki will be a major hurricane. It could pull a Paka in 1997.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WTPA42 PHFO 200233
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST MON OCT 19 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEKI HAS WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED. SEVERAL
RAINBANDS TO THE WEST...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CENTRAL CONVECTION GIVE NEKI THE APPEARANCE OF A
WESTERN PACIFIC MONSOON DEPRESSION RATHER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF NEKI IS EXPOSED AND IS MOVING AT
15 KT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...
PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...GAVE NEKI A CI OF 2.5...OR 35 KT. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TROPICAL STORM NEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
PROJECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST TO BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH GFS...ECMWF...GFDL AND HWRF.
UKMET REMAINS AS THE LEFT-MOST OUTLIER...SHOWING A FASTER TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A PASSING TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENT. THIS
WILL BE PRODUCING A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IN NEKI/S MOTION AND A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PATH UNTIL THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS AFTER 96 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES WITHIN THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...MINUS THE UKMET.

INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CIMSS DATA SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A VALUE OF 2.6 M/S AT 20/0000 UTC.
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE AT VALUES RANGING FROM
JUST BELOW 28C TO NEARLY 29C. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST NOT A LIMITING
FACTOR. THUS...DESPITE PRESENT APPEARANCES...THE FORECAST STILL
EXPECTS NEKI TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS ASSUMING CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST.

THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS NEKI WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE TRACK ALSO TAKES THE CENTER OF NEKI CLOSE
ENOUGH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH SINCE THE LEAD TIME REQUIREMENT IS 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 11.6N 161.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 162.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.6N 164.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 166.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.1N 167.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 19.0N 168.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 169.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 172.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

Neki seems to be stronger than being estimated

[Cyclenall]

Well right now Neki is organizing rapidly just within the last couple of hours. There is strong rotation with a burst of convection near the core. Let's see if this one can finally manage what all Cpac systems couldn't since Ioke of 2006, becoming a decent hurricane and moving westwards.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

WTPA32 PHFO 200233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST MON OCT 19 2009

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANYONE ON OR NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NEKI. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.0 WEST OR ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 670 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...
NEKI IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36
TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.6N 161.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

Big burst, continues to get better organized

[Macrocane]

Does Anyone know where the discussion and advisory 7 are? I hate the CPHC site is so disoganized as an opposite to Neki wich is very organized

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2009 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 12:48:14 N Lon : 162:46:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.5 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -81.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

20/1200 UTC 12.9N 162.9W T3.5/3.5 NEKI -- Central Pacific





Boom boom pow

[HURAKAN]

12z

CP, 03, 2009102012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1628W, 55, 1003, TS

Could be a hurricane before the day is over

[HURAKAN]

WTPA32 PHFO 201445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2009

...NEKI CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN FAR SOUTH
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.3 WEST OR ABOUT
655 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 475 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. NEKI WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL GRADUALLY SLOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
12 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING FURTHER THROUGH 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NEKI. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.3N 163.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

Should be a hurricane later today

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Neki could be a hurricane later today. I would not be surprised if Neki is the most intense Central Pacific since Ioke in 2006.

[HURAKAN]

Expires:No;;080474
WTPA42 PHFO 201458
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2009
NEKI HAS SHOWN IMPRESSIVE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN
AREA AND A 1043 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THE 1200 UTC FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB
AND JTWC WERE 3.0...3.5 AND 3.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPRESSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WE HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 55 KT...
MATCHING THE MAJORITY OF THE DVORAK FIXES.

TROPICAL STORM NEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING NEKI TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
SLOWING AS A TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSES...AND RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE...THE TRACK TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. WE HAVE
KEPT THE TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LATEST
FORECAST KEEPS NEKI WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK ALSO TAKES THE CENTER OF NEKI CLOSE ENOUGH TO
JOHNSTON ISLAND TO CONTINUE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.
TOMORROW WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS NEKI OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER FOR THE
NEXT 120 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS 10 KT NORTHEAST SHEAR DROPPING
TO ONLY 5 KT IN 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEKI TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. WE HAVE INCREASED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN
OUR FORECASTS AND NOW HAVE NEKI REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12
HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.3N 163.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 14.7N 164.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.4N 166.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 17.8N 167.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 18.8N 168.1W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 20.4N 169.4W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 171.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 174.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks like a hurricane now.