CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

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#121 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:35 am

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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:24 pm

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Very nice storm
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#123 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:30 pm

21/1800 UTC 17.6N 166.6W T5.5/5.5 NEKI -- Central Pacific

102 knots
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#124 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:41 pm

CP, 03, 2009102118, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1667W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest
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#125 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:43 pm

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Beautiful
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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:45 pm

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#127 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:18 pm

WTPA32 PHFO 211754
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
800 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.8 WEST OR ABOUT
630 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 190 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. NEKI IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS IT MAKES A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

ANYONE NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND OR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR NEKI. A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MONUMENT TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TODAY. IF NOT...
THE WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND WILL PROBABLY BE CANCELLED. LARGE
SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY REACH THE MONUMENT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY.


...SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 166.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#128 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:48 pm

This looks intense - like a Category 4.
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#129 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:42 pm

They only brought it up to 100 kt at the last advisory, but it definitely looks stronger.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#130 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:46 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 212136 CCA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

NEKI RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING REACHING
CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH. FIXES FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC AT 1800
UTC WERE 5.5...WHILE CIMSS ADT CALCULATED A CI OF 6.3. GOING WITH
THE FIX AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH BEING
PRODUCED BY AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEG...AT 8 KT
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS
RIDGING IS BEING ERODED BY A FRONT NEAR LISIANSKI THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 27N.

NEKI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE CURRENT MOTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 27 TO 28 CELSIUS AS NEKI MOVES
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

BEYOND 24 HOURS...NEKI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...
NEKI WILL TRAVEL OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 CELSIUS BY
72 HOURS...HASTENING THE WEAKENING. THE FORECAST BRINGS NEKI TO ITS
PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND THERAFTER. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE HWRF GUIDANCE AND
WEAKENS NEKI SLOWER THAN SHIPS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE
RIGHT TO BE ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
CLOSE TO THE TVCN AND JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...THE
TWO TOP PERFORMERS LATELY. BY 120 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS ACCELERATED
TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
INTERACTS WITH NEKI.

ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON
FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONUMENT
FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO MARO REEF. THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS FOR THE
MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY...
WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FT AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 18.0N 166.8W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.2N 167.0W 110 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 167.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 167.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 23.4N 167.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 25.5N 166.8W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 27.5N 165.8W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 30.4N 163.8W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#131 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:47 pm

And yet another hurricane that has taken advantage of El Niño conditions. It's nice to see such a beautiful hurricane after all the sheared depressions and storms that had formed on these last 3 years after Ioke. Another good prediction from the ECMWF, also CMC has the merit as it was the first that showed development on the area several days ago.

Off topic, PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA is a very good word for a spelling contest :wink:
Last edited by Macrocane on Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#132 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:48 pm

I would have gone with 110 kt, blending the ADT into the data and assuming further strengthening since 1800Z.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#133 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:55 pm

Neki is quite a large storm with tropical storm force winds extending up to 255 miles. Neki is probably the largest CPAC storm I know of. I wonder if there were any larger CPAC storms.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#134 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:18 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:Neki is quite a large storm with tropical storm force winds extending up to 255 miles. Neki is probably the largest CPAC storm I know of. I wonder if there were any larger CPAC storms.


A large storm out of a monsoon trough would have a much lower pressure?
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#135 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:41 pm

I'm not sure I would consider 10 knots in 6 hours RI, more like quick strengthening.

A category 4 (currently forecast) moving north isn't bad for the Cpac considering the duds since Ioke. It doesn't look too good on the eastern side but the western is excellent.

Macrocane wrote:Off topic, PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA is a very good word for a spelling contest :wink:

I was going to mention that, what a mouthful! It's funny reading that in every discussion and advisory, must get tiring :lol: .
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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:46 pm

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Looks very intense
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#137 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:48 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2009 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 18:15:00 N Lon : 166:43:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.6mb/119.8kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.2 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -4.0C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#138 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:17 pm

22/0000 UTC 18.3N 166.7W T6.0/6.0 NEKI -- Central Pacific

115 knots.
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#139 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:24 pm

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Beautiful
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#140 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:26 pm

Macrocane wrote:And yet another hurricane that has taken advantage of El Niño conditions. It's nice to see such a beautiful hurricane after all the sheared depressions and storms that had formed on these last 3 years after Ioke. Another good prediction from the ECMWF, also CMC has the merit as it was the first that showed development on the area several days ago.

Off topic, PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA is a very good word for a spelling contest :wink:


Yeah, a Hawaiian spelling contest! :lol:
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