CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEKI (03C)

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#141 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Beautiful


Thanks, Hurakan. I totally agree. More really impressive storms over the last month than we would have thought. Just not in the Atlantic.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#142 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:38 pm

I think the intensity is being underestimated

615
WHXX01 KMIA 220058
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0058 UTC THU OCT 22 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEKI (CP032009) 20091022 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091022 0000 091022 1200 091023 0000 091023 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 166.7W 20.1N 167.5W 21.6N 168.2W 22.8N 168.9W
BAMD 18.3N 166.7W 20.3N 166.9W 22.5N 166.1W 24.8N 164.9W
BAMM 18.3N 166.7W 19.9N 167.1W 21.6N 167.2W 23.1N 167.1W
SHIP 105KTS 108KTS 101KTS 90KTS
DSHP 105KTS 108KTS 101KTS 90KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091024 0000 091025 0000 091026 0000 091027 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.9N 169.2W 24.7N 167.9W 26.3N 166.2W 31.0N 159.9W
BAMD 27.4N 162.6W 33.3N 153.3W 40.1N 134.6W 34.0N 117.5W
BAMM 24.8N 166.7W 27.5N 164.0W 31.1N 161.1W 43.7N 151.8W
SHIP 77KTS 57KTS 42KTS 27KTS
DSHP 77KTS 57KTS 42KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 166.7W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 166.4W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 164.8W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 956MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 220NM RD34SE = 160NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#143 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:42 pm

Looks like the good times are over for Neki.
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#144 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:58 pm


213
WTPA32 PHFO 220248
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST WED OCT 21 2009

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE NEKI CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS FAR WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

THE HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.7 WEST OR ABOUT
600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF NEKI
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT
TONIGHT. SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WILL BUILD TO 15
TO 20 FT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...CREATING SURF OF 20 TO
25 FT.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.7N 166.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE



049
WTPA42 PHFO 220316 CCA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 PM HST WED OCT 21 2009

AFTER RAPID INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION OF NEKI HAS SLOWED. FIXES FROM PHFO AND JTWC CAME
IN AT 5.5...SAB REPORTED 6.0...AND CIMSS ADT CALCULATED 6.2. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT...AN AVERAGE OF THE FIX
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE
PARTIALLY RESTRICTED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS IS PRODUCING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR OF 16 KT ACCORDING TO THE 0000 UTC CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ESTIMATE. THIS SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE CORE
YET...AND SINCE NEKI SITS OVER 28 CELSIUS WATER...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TO THE DUE NORTH AT 8 KT TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS BEING ERODED BY
A FRONT MOVING OVER LISIANSKI AND ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD TO 25N.

NEKI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN
NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AND NOW LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO BE CLOSE TO THE WELL-PERFORMING HWRF AND GFDL
MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS NEKI CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IT WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT WILL INDUCE WEAKENING. THE RATE OF WEAKENING IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS BRINGS NEKI TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
DAY FIVE...BUT THE FATE OF NEKI WILL HINGE UPON ITS INTERACTION
WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY DAY FIVE...THESE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEKI MAY BE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.

ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON
FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE MONUMENT FROM NIHOA
ISLAND TO MARO REEF. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI WITHIN THE MONUMENT HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AS THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THURSDAY...WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 20
FT AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 18.7N 166.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.9N 166.6W 110 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.4N 166.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 23.1N 166.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 24.8N 165.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 27.4N 163.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.9N 161.2W 65 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 34.0N 158.9W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER WROE




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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#145 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:40 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Looks like the good times are over for Neki.

Just focus on the western side! :lol: Is this also a running joke from the Rick thread?

I think I agree with the 105 knots because it seems the eye isn't stable (may never be at this rate) and the ring of strong thunderstorms is variable (that rhymed! lol). The way the eastern side of the storm is behaving can't be helping either.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#146 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:47 am

And now weakening.
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#147 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2009 3:58 am

CPHC is down.

Actually good. Keep it down until they start writing advisories at the given times, instead of after.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#148 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:47 am

PHFO 220913
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 PM HST WED OCT 21 2009

HURRICANE NEKI HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS EVENING. FIXES
FROM PHFO AND JTWC REPORT CI OF 5.5 WHILE SAB REPORTS
6.0...UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. PHFO ALSO REPORTS STEADY FOR A 24
HOUR TREND INSTEAD OF DEVELOPING...A FIRST FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 105 KT AS A NOD TO CONTINUITY
FROM 6 HOURS AGO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...IF A BIT ASYMMETRIC.
SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS EVIDENT...WITH THE 0600 UTC UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWING 18 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR TO AFFECT THE CORE...WHICH PRESENTS AS A CLOUDED EYE
AT THIS HOUR. NEKI REMAINS OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER...BUT LITTLE OR
NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

NEKI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF ITS
TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT EAST COMPONENT NOTED IN LAST 6 HOUR MOTION.
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 010 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LISIANSKI IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...URGING NEKI EVER NORTHWARD. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ENCROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST
WITHIN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ALONG
HWRF...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

NEKI WILL REMAIN IN 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATER THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.
UW-CIMSS SHOWS NEUTRAL SHEAR IMPACT ON THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 24
HOURS...SO NO WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS INTRODUCED AT 24 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTERWARD. NEKI IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AFTER
72 HOURS...THEN A DEPRESSION AT 120 HOURS. THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY
FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW NEKI INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH.

ON THE CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS ON
FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE MONUMENT FROM NIHOA
ISLAND TO MARO REEF. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED WITH THE
NEXT BULLETIN IF THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN THE TRACK INCREASES.
LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA THURSDAY...WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.7N 166.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 166.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.7N 165.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 24.3N 165.1W 90 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 25.8N 164.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 28.7N 162.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 31.8N 159.7W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 35.6N 157.2W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

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#149 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:23 am

Image

Quite impressive
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#150 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:27 am

Image

Image

Latest
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#151 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:19 am

Image

Latest
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Re:

#152 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:51 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Wow, that was fast!
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#153 Postby masaji79 » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:36 am

Wow, had Neki developed one day, or even a few hours earlier it would have taken a track eerily similar to that of Iwa's in 1982.
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#154 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:05 am

WTPA42 PHFO 221450
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
500 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009

HURRICANE NEKI REACHED PEAK INTENSITY LAST NIGHT AND HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH ONLY EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. FIXES FROM
PHFO AND JTWC GAVE CI VALUES OF 5.5 AND 5.0 WHILE SAB GAVE
6.0...WITH JTWC REPORTING THE INTENSITY DROP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CONTINUED CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND A BIT OF
EROSION INTO THE EYEWALL ALONG ITS SOUTHEAST FLANK. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN PHFO AND JTWC
INTENSITIES. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME HAMPERED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK...BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS
INCREASING...WITH THE 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCT NOW
SHOWING OVER 25 KT OF SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE CORE. NEKI REMAINS OVER 28 DEGREE C WATER...BUT THANKS
TO THE SHEAR GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF NEKI IS
OFF THE WESTERN LIMB OF THE CLOSEST SCATTEROMETER PASS...BUT IT
SEEMS CLEAR THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADIUS IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN IT
WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS
RADIUS HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO 180 NM FOR THIS BULLETIN CYCLE.

NEKI ALSO REACHED THE WESTERNMOST POINT OF ITS TRACK LAST
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED EAST COMPONENT NOTED IN LAST
6 HOUR MOTION. INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 020 DEGREES AT 9 KT. A FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR LISIANSKI IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...URGING NEKI TO GAIN LATITUDE. NEKI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ENCROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TRACK
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE RECURVATURE OF NEKI
THIS TIME AROUND...WITH ALL BUT BAMD IGNORING THE PAST 6 AND 12
HOURS MOTION AND WANTING TO KEEP MOVING NEKI DUE NORTH...AT LEAST
INITIALLY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS BAMD THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN
EASES INTO AN ARC PARALLEL TO AND JUST RIGHT OF GFDL AND HWRF. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE ALSO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

NEKI WILL REMAIN IN 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATER THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS NOW SHOWS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR IMPACT ON THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH 24 HOURS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM AFTER 72 HOURS...THEN TO A DEPRESSION AT 120 HOURS. THE LONG
RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW NEKI INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
AND NIHOA ON FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO MARO REEF. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LARGE SWELLS FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BUILD AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY...WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT
AND SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 20.4N 166.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 165.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.4N 164.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 24.9N 163.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.4N 162.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 29.3N 160.4W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 32.7N 157.3W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 36.4N 153.4W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#155 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:38 am

It looks like a 90 kt hurricane to me, and that being conservative, the convection is strong but the outflow is good only in the northeastern quadrant, the eye is no longer visible nd cloud tops are not as cold as yesterday, that's why I think Neki is no longer a major hurricane.
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#156 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:28 pm

Image

Not looking too good at the moment
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#157 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:09 pm

PHFO 222046
TCDCP2

HURRICANE NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2009

HURRICANE NEKI IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. FIXES FROM CPHC...JTWC...AND SAB
ALL CAME IN WITH CI VALUES OF 5.0 WHICH SETS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 90 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WAS MAINLY DUE
TO A RECENT SSMIS PASS AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IN
THE SHORT TERM THEN A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
ACCELERATION EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN ENCROACHING
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST FORECAST
TRACK IS PRETTY MUCH DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE BUT SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE WESTWARD
SHIFT OF THE INITIAL POSITION.

NEKI WILL REMAIN OVER 26 C OR WARMER WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS SOUTHWEST
SHEAR OF 24 KT. THIS STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY KEY IN THE WEAKENING
PROCESS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 72
HOURS...THEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE CLASSIFIED AS EXTRATROPICAL.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...NEKI WILL BE IMPACTING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA ISLAND TO MARO REEF. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BUILD
AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT AND
SURF UP 25 FT EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.8N 166.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.8N 166.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.4N 165.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 25.0N 164.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 163.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 160.7W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 35.6N 156.8W 40 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 40.9N 151.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BURKE


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Cyclenall
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#158 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:49 pm

The text format for the advisories changed on the CPHC site. It's worse because there is extra spacing between the lines and it makes it harder and slower to read. I'm not sure what they are trying to do with their website there...
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CrazyC83
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#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:52 pm

Very rare to see the word "extratropical" in a Pacific hurricane discussion. Usually it becomes a low or wave long before reaching those heights.
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somethingfunny
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Re: CPAC: HURRICANE NEKI (03C)

#160 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:58 pm

Slowly weakening? It looks to me like Neki is barely hanging on...
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