ATL : INVEST 94L

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ATL : INVEST 94L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:16 am

SW Caribbean area.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910201214
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2009, DB, O, 2009102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942009
AL, 94, 2009102012, , BEST, 0, 125N, 817W, 25, 0, DB
AL, 94, 2009101918, , BEST, 0, 129N, 819W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009102000, , BEST, 0, 125N, 819W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009102006, , BEST, 0, 127N, 822W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2009102012, , BEST, 0, 125N, 817W, 25, 1007, DB


Link to thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106873&start=220&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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#2 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:21 am

Yaaaaaaaaay! Now we are getting somewhere.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:23 am

Finally!
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ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:23 am

First Model Plots

Quasi-Stationary.

214
WHXX01 KWBC 201218
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1218 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20091020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091020 1200 091021 0000 091021 1200 091022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 81.7W 13.1N 83.1W 13.7N 84.5W 14.3N 85.7W
BAMD 12.5N 81.7W 12.9N 82.5W 13.4N 83.0W 13.9N 83.2W
BAMM 12.5N 81.7W 13.1N 82.8W 13.6N 83.8W 14.1N 84.6W
LBAR 12.5N 81.7W 13.0N 82.1W 14.2N 82.6W 15.6N 83.0W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091022 1200 091023 1200 091024 1200 091025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 86.8W 15.6N 88.1W 15.3N 89.3W 14.2N 91.9W
BAMD 14.1N 83.3W 14.2N 82.0W 14.0N 81.8W 14.6N 83.2W
BAMM 14.4N 85.3W 14.5N 86.2W 14.0N 87.7W 13.3N 89.9W
LBAR 17.1N 83.3W 19.4N 82.7W 20.2N 81.3W 21.3N 80.6W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 236DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 81.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:32 am

Image

Towards CA
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#6 Postby tailgater » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:38 am

I see some rotation down in the Southern Caribbean
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
But what I can't understand is what would lift this invest northward. watch the loop?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:43 am

Image

Visible
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:46 am

Now lets wait for GFDL and HWRF later today to see how they go in their tracks and intensity.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:46 am

Image

Very hard to ignore
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 7:51 am

cycloneye wrote:Now lets wait for GFDL and HWRF later today to see how they go in their tracks and intensity.


Right. BAM models are simple trajectory models. They won't do well in this type of situation at all. Need to look at the dynamic models like GFDL, HWRF and the global non-tropical models as well.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#11 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:16 am

tailgater wrote:I see some rotation down in the Southern Caribbean
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
But what I can't understand is what would lift this invest northward. watch the loop?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html


Remember, you're watching a loop of the projected steering currents derived from the GFS model, which builds a ridge over the SE U.S. and Gulf. The European has a completely different steering pattern.

Just looking at past storms in the region this time of year, the vast majority tracked north then northeast, across Cuba and the Bahamas or sometimes clipping south Florida. The other tracks just go west into Central America. No storm passing within 200nm of this location in Oct/Nov has ever impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Pensacola. Good news for us on the northern Gulf Coast, maybe. Not so good for Cuba and south Florida.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:18 am

wxman57 wrote:
tailgater wrote:I see some rotation down in the Southern Caribbean
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
But what I can't understand is what would lift this invest northward. watch the loop?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html


Remember, you're watching a loop of the projected steering currents derived from the GFS model, which builds a ridge over the SE U.S. and Gulf. The European has a completely different steering pattern.

Just looking at past storms in the region this time of year, the vast majority tracked north then northeast, across Cuba and the Bahamas or sometimes clipping south Florida. The other tracks just go west into Central America. No storm passing within 200nm of this location in Oct/Nov has ever impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Pensacola. Good news for us on the northern Gulf Coast, maybe. Not so good for Cuba and south Florida.


the CIMSS site primarily uses the NOGAPS model for its map, not GFS
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Re:

#13 Postby jinftl » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:18 am

now that is what i call a disturbing image...the heat content is akin to a shot of adrenaline ready to boost any system that finds itself in the nw caribbean (and isn't fighting strong shear when it does). It takes more than high tchp to get a hurricane...and maybe that is more of a factor in determining how much an already developed system will strengthen....but if there was one area i would have concern about a system moving over, it is the area between the yucatan, cuba, and jamaica.

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Very hard to ignore
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#14 Postby tailgater » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:23 am

wxman57 wrote:
tailgater wrote:I see some rotation down in the Southern Caribbean
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
But what I can't understand is what would lift this invest northward. watch the loop?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html


Remember, you're watching a loop of the projected steering currents derived from the GFS model, which builds a ridge over the SE U.S. and Gulf. The European has a completely different steering pattern.

Just looking at past storms in the region this time of year, the vast majority tracked north then northeast, across Cuba and the Bahamas or sometimes clipping south Florida. The other tracks just go west into Central America. No storm passing within 200nm of this location in Oct/Nov has ever impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Pensacola. Good news for us on the northern Gulf Coast, maybe. Not so good for Cuba and south Florida.


I think that loop shows the last 5 days to current not what is projected?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#15 Postby jinftl » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:29 am

Storms that develop in this region do have a tendency to meander for a bit, but ultimately they get picked up by the parade of troughs and fronts moving across the u.s. If a system develops, it is the angle of movement when it starts moving north and northeast that will determine who, if anyone, is in its path. The Florida peninsula south through Cuba/Jamaica/Hispanola would seem to be the possible range.

With talk of another trough in the eastern u.s. by the weekend, i can't see this system gaining much longitude once it makes up its mind (unless it comes onshore in central america first).

wxman57 wrote:
tailgater wrote:I see some rotation down in the Southern Caribbean
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
But what I can't understand is what would lift this invest northward. watch the loop?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html


Remember, you're watching a loop of the projected steering currents derived from the GFS model, which builds a ridge over the SE U.S. and Gulf. The European has a completely different steering pattern.

Just looking at past storms in the region this time of year, the vast majority tracked north then northeast, across Cuba and the Bahamas or sometimes clipping south Florida. The other tracks just go west into Central America. No storm passing within 200nm of this location in Oct/Nov has ever impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Pensacola. Good news for us on the northern Gulf Coast, maybe. Not so good for Cuba and south Florida.
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Re:

#16 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:32 am

HURAKAN wrote:Finally!


no doubt, one bullet left in the gun, lets see if it can do something
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Re:

#17 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:36 am

hurricanetrack wrote:Yaaaaaaaaay! Now we are getting somewhere.

the last appearance of the season for our angry friend from down under, he is on alert

Image
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby jinftl » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:42 am

If there is in fact one bullet left this season (although folks have been saying that since claudette), i would much rather than shot be fired from the central atlantic by some hybrid storm....not from the birthplace of late season monsters like mitch and wilma. Will 94L become infamous....odds are against it of course...but if something interesting were to get going this season, this is where it could happen.

Something about the play on words of "Ida" and "Flor-Ida" that would make great newspaper headlines....lol

jlauderdal wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Finally!


no doubt, one bullet left in the gun, lets see if it can do something
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#19 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:47 am

Personally, I don't think it looks healthy this morning. It does not have the curvature it had yesterday, and it has less convection. Amateur eyes, of course lol.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#20 Postby jinftl » Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:49 am

Graphic says it all...

Image
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