ATL : INVEST 94L

[wxman57]

EC in through 144hrs. Made a composite map of GFS (yellow lines) and ECMWF (purple lines) analyzed to 1/2 millibar. Valid 7am CDT next Monday. Note the similarity between the two now. EC has trended toward GFS, and GFS toward yesterday's EC. Both VERY slow to move the system northward.

[Ivanhater]

Seems the slower it moves, the better the chance the next trough kicks it NE, maybe never getting out of the Caribbean

[wxman57]

BIG differences show up at 168 hrs. EC seems to take the high over the southeast U.S. and move it northward up the coast, while the GFS just moves it more slowly eastward, blocking any northward progress of the system. I have to admit, that ECMWF track into the central Gulf looks mighty suspicious for this time of year.

I don't get the ECMWF here beyond 168 hrs, so we have to wait for the ECMWF web site to update before we can see out to 10 days.

[Ivanhater]

Man, I really thought we might finally have agreement here, stall on the NW Caribbean waiting on the next front to sweep it NE, like Wilma maybe further south. I still think this time of year that is more likely. But it all depends on what is actually happening this time.

[wxman57]

Man, I really thought we might finally have agreement here, stall on the NW Caribbean waiting on the next front to sweep it NE, like Wilma maybe further south. I still think this time of year that is more likely. But it all depends on what is actually happening this time.

Yeah, I was hopeful for agreement, too. The ECMWF has the front in the same place as the GFS but it just blows the low past the front, it seems. Or it drives the front northward?? Very strange solution. I'm skeptical. And the ECMWF is Derek's favorite model, too...

[cycloneye]

Here is the loop of the 12z ECMWF.After entering the SE GOM,it goes NE over Centralnorthern Florida and then up the coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

Big Bend area

[wxman57]

Yeah, VERY weak low south-central Gulf the NE to northern FL Peninsula. Note that the maps I posted showed isobars every 1/2 millibar. That made the low look much stronger. But we can't really use these global models to predict TC intensity.

[cycloneye]

There is a 94L models thread.

[cycloneye]

Hey,there is this models thread to post the runs.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

There is a 94L models thread.

Never understood the need for 2 separate discussion threads. This is where we're discussing the potential future of the disturbance. Are we supposed to post the model images there then talk about them here?

[cycloneye]

There is a 94L models thread.

Never understood the need for 2 separate discussion threads. This is where we're discussing the potential future of the disturbance. Are we supposed to post the model images there then talk about them here?

We haved done separated threads since storm2k came to life called the main thread for members to discuss all about the system and the models thread to post the runs from the different models.We do it this way for the Atlantic systems as information about the models gets lost when a main thread gets many replies.When a models thread is up,is more easy for the members to find the model runs in one place rather than in a mix of other discussions.I can ask the admins to look into it to see if we can forget about model threads.

[drezee]

Yeah, VERY weak low south-central Gulf the NE to northern FL Peninsula. Note that the maps I posted showed isobars every 1/2 millibar. That made the low look much stronger. But we can't really use these global models to predict TC intensity.

I dare not make a prediction on intensity, but there is a ton of latent heat down there. The TCHP is ripe. Sky is the limit on potential, but the forming low needs to stay over water. Until, a consistent solid center is formed....it will be difficult to determine a track.

[wxman57]

Certainly, the TCHP supports a major hurricane. But the water could be boiling in the NW Caribbean and nothing will develop if wind shear isn't favorable. So it really comes down to whether or not atmospheric conditions favor intensification.

[wxman57]

There is a 94L models thread.

Never understood the need for 2 separate discussion threads. This is where we're discussing the potential future of the disturbance. Are we supposed to post the model images there then talk about them here?

We haved done separated threads since storm2k came to life called the main thread for members to discuss all about the system and the models thread to post the runs from the different models.We do it this way for the Atlantic systems as information about the models gets lost when a main thread gets many replies.When a models thread is up,is more easy for the members to find the model runs in one place rather than in a mix of other discussions.I can ask the admins to look into it to see if we can forget about model threads.

Yeah, in a more "typical" season with hundreds of pages of posts on each system, the models could be lost in the main discussion thread, so you have a point. Somehow I don't think they'll be lost in the discussion thread this year. Just 3 pages of posts on a potential hurricane threat in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf? Normally, we'd have that many pages the first 5 minutes of the thread.

[cycloneye]

Yeah, in a more "typical" season with hundreds of pages of posts on each system, the models could be lost in the main discussion thread, so you have a point. Somehow I don't think they'll be lost in the discussion thread this year. Just 3 pages of posts on a potential hurricane threat in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf? Normally, we'd have that many pages the first 5 minutes of the thread.

57,you are right that this year we haved not had a wild scene here of the members posting every second and having threads go over 600 pages like in 2005.But keep in mind that this 94L system will be out there for many days to come and is expected that this main thread will get busy if it organizes.While we have many regulars that read nearly every page,a lot of people pop in when they can from work or home and want a quick update. There's usually going to be many pages of discussion, and particularly when it's very busy,the thread moves quickly. Keeping the models thread separate gives people quick access to the latest model runs without wading through pages and pages.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

How will Rick, or its remnants, potentially impact this system or the approaching front? I don't see it at all in the models, though it shoudl be showin gup on the maps as it traverses Mexico over the next few days.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Yeah, in a more "typical" season with hundreds of pages of posts on each system, the models could be lost in the main discussion thread, so you have a point. Somehow I don't think they'll be lost in the discussion thread this year. Just 3 pages of posts on a potential hurricane threat in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf? Normally, we'd have that many pages the first 5 minutes of the thread.

57,you are right that this year we haved not had a wild scene here of the members posting every second and having threads go over 600 pages like in 2005.But keep in mind that this 94L system will be out there for many days to come and is expected that this main thread will get busy if it organizes.While we have many regulars that read nearly every page,a lot of people pop in when they can from work or home and want a quick update. There's usually going to be many pages of discussion, and particularly when it's very busy,the thread moves quickly. Keeping the models thread separate gives people quick access to the latest model runs without wading through pages and pages.

haha. I am a perfect example of that person who pops in occassionally while at work...and of course...my first stop was over at the Models thread to see what the latest prognosis was.

[wxman57]

How will Rick, or its remnants, potentially impact this system or the approaching front? I don't see it at all in the models, though it should be showing up on the maps as it traverses Mexico over the next few days.

Looks like Rick's energy merges with the front along the TX coast Thursday night/Friday morning then races NE up the front to the Ohio Valley by Saturday. Probably little impact on the Caribbean system.

Rick does show up well on the NCEP GFS loop:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml