ATL : INVEST 94L

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#241 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:44 am

Lower level convergence increasing in the Caribbean, and convection is popping in that area. Meanwhile, the epac part of the disturbance is fading out again, just like yesterday.

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#242 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:04 pm

This is like a roller coaster. One moment it looks like the Pacific is winning, the other it looks like the Caribbean is winning. Lets see what happens.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#243 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:07 pm

:uarrow: The ingredients are there: Area of low pressure, persistent convection, shear is not to bad, there is low level convergence, and warm waters. I think the low may be moving a little ENE from the coast, so maybe this low will have a better chance moving away from land and the low in the EPAC.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#244 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:10 pm

:uarrow: Another ingredient,favorable MJO.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#245 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:18 pm

Surprised no one showed the 12z CMC

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#246 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:21 pm

12z CMC animation.Bullish once again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z GFS trys to form something in Western Caribbean and moves it into the GOM but is very weak.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#247 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#248 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:42 pm

:uarrow:
The timing makes better sense to me I just could not see a system sitting down there for 10+ days like some of the previous models were showing. I believe the low is finally on the move drifting towards the ENE.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#249 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 22, 2009 12:54 pm

12z Ukmet, develops a closed low in the gulf somewhat, which is interesting from this conservative model. Models still sniffing this out down there, with the Canadian the strongest
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L - Models

#250 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:00 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#251 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:28 pm

Low level convergence has increased in the area.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#252 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 22, 2009 2:08 pm

The remnant front jacked-up vertically and plunged all the way down to 94L and is inhibiting it. Crazy.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#253 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:02 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Surprised no one showed the 12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp20.png


GFS shows something similar, though it doesn't depict a closed low. Basically, the two models appear to be showing some moisture moving out of the Caribbean along a cold front in at least a moderate shear environment. That does look likely, but the system wouldn't likely be a TC.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#254 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 5:38 pm

The 18z surface analysis,shows no changes.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#255 Postby boca » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:15 pm

The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#256 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#257 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:08 pm

Pretty colors....

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#258 Postby Nimbus » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:24 pm

The sunset shots on the visible satellite looked like the convection had been sheared east of the center. If that is the case we should see either a new center form under the convection or a fresh burst of convection further west.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#259 Postby CourierPR » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:27 pm

boca wrote:The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.
Actually, the low is stationary off the coast of Nicaragua, as stated by the NHC. If you look carefully at the satellite loop you can see it. Don't focus on the mass of convection east of the low.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#260 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:35 pm

CourierPR wrote:
boca wrote:The vorticity of 94L is moving ENE like blown_away pointed out it won't be an issue for Florida because is now entrained into the old frontal zone.Tomorrow it should be in the Central Caribbean.
Actually, the low is stationary off the coast of Nicaragua, as stated by the NHC. If you look carefully at the satellite loop you can see it. Don't focus on the mass of convection east of the low.


Exactly, well said. Still development chances continue to dwindle it would seem.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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