ATL : INVEST 94L

[Macrocane]

I see it, dont know if it at surface,but I think this the feature we will be watching.

I see a subtle rotation too, maybe at mid level, the portion on the EPAC has a better defined spin than the Caribbean one. Still bears watching on both sides.

[Blown Away]

I see it, dont know if it at surface,but I think this the feature we will be watching.

I see a subtle rotation too, maybe at mid level, the portion on the EPAC has a better defined spin than the Caribbean one. Still bears watching on both sides.

I agree the Caribbean low is not at the surface, but don't think the EPAC low has improved over the past couple of hours.

[Derek Ortt]

nothing at all on the 12Z GFS

seems as if I can worry more about the ND/BC game and whether or not Whale Weis will be fired

[cycloneye]

This system still has some model support sort of.This is the 12z CMC that shows TD moving towards the Yucatan and emerging in the GOM but weakens after it crosses the Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[tolakram]

The RAMSDIS floater has shifted down to the EPAC disturbance.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow, looks like Euro and GFS pulled their own Balloon Boy hoax with us. I was really thinking that we would see development of some type out of the SW Carib. but it appears that it is not going to happen now. I would love to know someday why a sophisticated model like the Euro would show a hurricane (strong one at that) for a couple of runs and then over time, only a few days, back off completely to nothing at all. How does that work? On the flip side, how do they get it right sometimes too? GFS nailed Bill's genesis and Euro nailed its eventual non-threat to the U.S. It makes it all quite interesting but frustrating at times too. Still, this will be good news for people who would have otherwise been in harm's way.

[tolakram]

I think this area is very tough. The center of activity has not moved that much, but it doesn't take much down there to shift from ATL to EPAC.

[HurricaneRobert]

Will this develop in the east pacific? It looks like the central pacific might have a new system next week.

[CourierPR]

There is rotation near 13N and 83W in the Caribbean. Maybe you naycasters will be in for a surprise. The convection seems to be holding or even increasing near the center of circulation. Does anyone else see this?

[CourierPR]

If I recall correctly, the models backed off their bullish support last Sunday and then jumped back on board. It might just happen again.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Blown Away]

I'm still seeing more rotation and persistent deep convection with the low in the Caribbean. The deep convection continues to pop rate around the broad low area.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TPC discussion of Caribbean area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED STATIONARY
FRONT IS SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 76W-84W. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
RIDGING PREVAILING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1701.shtml?

[CourierPR]

I'm still seeing more rotation and persistent deep convection with the low in the Caribbean. The deep convection continues to pop rate around the broad low area.

It would truly be an ironic end to the season if the Caribbean low develops and the EPAC low does not.

[deltadog03]

12z euro dosn't have anything anymore either. IMO, just MO, I think this one is all but over for development. *atleast for now* There might be a weak low pressure that comes out of the bahamas, but this area and invest I feel is all but over. Euro did bust somewhat on genesis, but thats what happens when you can bundle all of the energy down there. However, that clearly dosn't look like its going to happen now. I am much more impressed with the big trof coming down the plains and into the east day 7-10 and beyond on the euro. Anyway, I think we might have to ask ourselves is tropical land over for the year.......

[wxman57]

There is rotation near 13N and 83W in the Caribbean. Maybe you naycasters will be in for a surprise. The convection seems to be holding or even increasing near the center of circulation. Does anyone else see this?

I don't see anything there. Surface obs have ESE-SE winds. Satellite doesn't show much.

[Brent]

12z euro dosn't have anything anymore either. IMO, just MO, I think this one is all but over for development. *atleast for now* There might be a weak low pressure that comes out of the bahamas, but this area and invest I feel is all but over. Euro did bust somewhat on genesis, but thats what happens when you can bundle all of the energy down there. However, that clearly dosn't look like its going to happen now. I am much more impressed with the big trof coming down the plains and into the east day 7-10 and beyond on the euro. Anyway, I think we might have to ask ourselves is tropical land over for the year.......

I think Bones is warming up for the whole season. I never was impressed with this given the way this year has gone.

[Blown Away]

There is rotation near 13N and 83W in the Caribbean. Maybe you naycasters will be in for a surprise. The convection seems to be holding or even increasing near the center of circulation. Does anyone else see this?

I don't see anything there. Surface obs have ESE-SE winds. Satellite doesn't show much.

I agree there is most likely nothing at the surface, but Wxman is there not weak cyclonic rotation and deep convection around the area the TPC places the low (12N/82W)?

[cycloneye]

Well,maybe this thing in the SW Caribbean is not dead after all,if this observation that I just found from Costa Rica is veridic.It is from Puerto Limon on the east coast on the Caribbean side.

Code: Select all

Current Weather Conditions:
Puerto Limon, Costa Rica 
(MRLM) 10-00N 083-03W 3M 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Oct 21, 2009 - 03:00 PM EDTOct 21, 2009 - 02:00 PM CDTOct 21, 2009 - 01:00 PM MDTOct 21, 2009 - 12:00 PM PDTOct 21, 2009 - 11:00 AM ADTOct 21, 2009 - 10:00 AM HDT
2009.10.21 1900 UTC 
Wind  from the NNE (020 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Weather  Cumulonimbus clouds observed 
Temperature  84 F (29 C) 
Dew Point  73 F (23 C) 
Relative Humidity  70% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.73 in. Hg (1006 hPa) 


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MRLM.html

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather is calling for possible development into a named cyclone on Sunday into Monday. I don't think the fat lady is ready to sing her aria just yet.