ATL : INVEST 94L

[wxman57]

You don't need your memory for early Paloma forecasts, they're online at Colorado State:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... hive/2008/

Paloma was storm aal17... Initial tracks took it slowly north then northeast to Cuba:

[cycloneye]

Monitorear es siempre prudente e importante... 94L merece la atención de todos. Especialmente de Cuba y EE.UU

Estoy de acuerdo 100% con lo que dices.Tu estas en Cuba en estos momentos?

I agree 100% with that.Are you in Cuba right now?

[Sanibel]

prevailing negativity on this board anyways....

I think the negativity of which I speak is manifesting itself in the pocked dry slots and lack of bursting we are seeing. Maybe this will form because of the broadness of the formation, but it appears to be going west which will doom it.



.

[HURAKAN]

Close to land

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well thru 96 Hrs the GFS doesnt send it to the EPAC on the 12Z



5 Days.



6 Days



7 Days

[cycloneye]

57,that is a change from past runs of GFS.What do you think?

[cycloneye]

12z surface analysis by TAFB.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like the Classic Caribbean stall in this run..

[Blown Away]

12z GFS looks like it moves 94L towards the Yucatan Channel. 12z HWRF goes into CA if I'm reading that correctly.

[Hurricaneman]

gfs track is similar to wilmas, but a weaker system of course

[shortwave]

satellite pic of floyd 2 days before it formed:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/html/GOE ... 7-10-07-15
current satellite
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

[tolakram]

Repost, since it was at the bottom of the last page. Probably the best view us amateurs can get at the moment. I moved it south and east just a tad.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10

[Blown Away]

gfs track is similar to wilmas, but a weaker system of course

Very similiar to Wilma with regards to track only. 12z GFS moves 94L just E of Cozumel then stalls for a while and then gets abruptly swept NE through through Cuba/Fl Straits.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

First GFDL run

Not moves too much.

WHXX04 KWBC 201717
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 81.8 360./ 1.0
6 11.5 82.4 230./ 8.4
12 12.7 83.2 329./14.1
18 12.6 83.3 236./ 2.1
24 11.5 83.7 197./11.4
30 11.4 83.7 222./ 1.2
36 11.1 83.1 112./ 7.1
42 11.3 83.1 4./ 1.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 42 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

Intensity from GFDL is a moderate Tropical Storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

[wxman57]

I'm watching the 12Z ECMWF coming in and overlaying the 12Z GFS over the ECMWF. Out to 96 hours they're identical. Front across the central Gulf in the same spot, low center still just east of Nicaragua at 96 hrs. Looking like the ECMWF may be trending toward the GFS a bit and the GFS trending toward the ECMWF. Let's see if the ECMWF lifts it slowly northward beyond 96 hours like the GFS.

Oh, and looking at a recent satellite loop, the vorticity center (rotation) appears to be almost on the coast of Nicaragua.

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion of Caribbean area.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN/FLORIDA...
FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS /AS WELL AS MANY
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ HAVE BEEN INDICATING TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A WELL-DEFINED
SYSTEM TRACKING OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA. NON-ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER SPEED THAN
ECMWF RUNS. THE MIDDLE OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SPREAD HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEMS TIMING FOR
THREE DAYS NOW...WITH THE MIDDLE OF ITS ENSEMBLE LOW SPREAD MOVING
THE LOW INTO FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS
CONTINUITY AND COORDINATION WITH NHC...A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF WHICH IS WITHIN THE SLOWEST QUARTER OF THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS PRUDENT AT THIS JUNCTURE...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS AGAINST THE USUAL BIAS SEEN WITH RECURVING SYSTEMS
WITHIN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREAD /THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TEND
TO BE TOO SLOW TO RECURVE SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERLIES/. THIS
QUICKENING TREND IN OUR PROGS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DAWDLE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKING AT THE MEAN STEERING ACROSS THAT
REGION...WHICH SHOWS A DEPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
LATITUDE/IMPINGING OF THE WESTERLIES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
BY NEXT TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IF THIS SYSTEM GAINS DEEP CONVECTION
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...THIS WOULD ALSO CAUSE
ACCELERATION...PARTICULARLY WITH FUTURE GFS SOLUTIONS MAY THEN
OVERSHOOT THE MARK.

ROTH/RAUSCH

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[wxman57]

12Z ECMWF out to 120 hrs now. It's even slower in moving it north than 12Z GFS now, though both have a similar pattern to the north (ridge over SE U.S.).

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is Yucatan bound of a weak system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation