ATL : INVEST 94L

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#201 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:21 pm

No best track updates haved been released since last night,but NRL internally made an update of the invest position.In other words,invest 94L is alive and not deactivated.

Invest 94L

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94L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom
20091021.1945.goes12.x.vis1km_high.94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-833W.100pc.jpg |
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#202 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 21, 2009 3:58 pm

Similar to what has been said I see the mid level rotation around here.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#203 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 21, 2009 4:06 pm

:uarrow:
Good shot, 94L is there likely at the midlevel, but still a decent invest. ECMWF drops 94L for a few runs and everybody jumps ship. You confirmed what I was seeing this afternoon. I'm not saying this will become Ida but it deserves some attention.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#204 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:36 pm

Invest has been deactivated.But the thread will remain as we do with every thread in this forum,as we let more replies to them for a couple of days but it can be extended if the thread remains fairly busy after 2 days.Also,just in case they reactivate it again,the thread is here.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910212206
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 942009.ren

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#205 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:06 pm

From what I'm currently seeing I think it is possible the Caribbean stole the axis back from EPAC.


I'm not saying I have magic information on formation - but don't quit on this one just yet.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#206 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:10 pm

No one is suggesting that the disturbance be ignored, just that with decreasing (or no) organization and no model support for development, chances that this disturbance will become a TC have diminished.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#207 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:11 pm

Sanibel wrote:From what I'm currently seeing I think it is possible the Caribbean stole the axis back from EPAC.


I'm not saying I have magic information on formation - but don't quit on this one just yet.


It seemed to be reforming in the EPAC though. But conditions there look quite conducive to development on that side. Shear is fairly low beneath it (same conditions that gave way to Rick) but increases to the north and west. At this point, I'd say this more likely becomes Sandra than Ida.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#208 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Convection still disorganized this morning, and models are backing away from development. Euro and Canadian show nothing. GFS develops a low but kills it off in the NW Caribbean as another front moves into the area. Vorticity center is right on the coast of Nicaragua now. No NHC model runs since 12Z yesterday. Development chances diminishing. Still should keep an eye on the region, but we may just escape any development.


I have to agree with that. Development chances are diminishing but something to check up on every so often until it is gone.

Curiously there is a strong low approaching South Florida from the east in the 18Z (48 hours from now). Maybe time to look to the Bahamas instead the next couple of days.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#209 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:17 pm

IR is a little warm. Just suggesting the Caribbean potential isn't zero. If it takes root it will burst. The best indicator is the storm itself.

Probability and odds are way against formation because of simple odds of late season formation last year vs a negative year this year plus the negative conditions making the likelihood of another late season year very unlikely.
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#210 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:21 pm

Here's the new thread for the Bahamas area:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106896
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#211 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:35 pm

94L was deactivated but NHC continues to talk about the broad low pressure in SW Caribbean.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#212 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:01 pm

Looks to me like the EPAC is close to or over land.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#213 Postby CourierPR » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:28 pm

Sanibel wrote:From what I'm currently seeing I think it is possible the Caribbean stole the axis back from EPAC.


I'm not saying I have magic information on formation - but don't quit on this one just yet.

I agree. I think we may still have a player here. The convection has persisted.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#214 Postby lonelymike » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:30 pm

Season over!! Stick a fork in it! :flag:
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GO SEMINOLES

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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#215 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:39 pm

A good convective buildup in the past 6 hours off Nicaragua coast.Is it a sign that something may try to form here causing them to reactivate the invest?

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#216 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:46 pm

Coming next summer to the Weather Channel: "Tropics", a new primetime drama about the struggles of the storms of the 2009 hurricane season. Spotlighting the tragic lives of the storms as they try to form and try to stay alive. Featuring characters such as "Erika" and "94L", "Tropics" is sure to make a splash next season!

Hey, it wouldn't be the worst thing on TV lol. Still though, convection rebuilding this evening, but still very disorganized.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#217 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:46 pm

:uarrow: That blow up is rate over the low. I think ex 94L is looking good tonight.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
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#218 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:58 pm

Image

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#219 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:13 pm

Am changing the title of my new book to "When there used to be hurricanes". Due out in June.

Sorry for the off-topics but dag, this stinks.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 94L

#220 Postby boca » Wed Oct 21, 2009 9:23 pm

I think 94L will be reactivated by tomorrow morning by the way its blowing up tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html
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