WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

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WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:05 am

This is the system east of the Mariana islands that may develop.

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
221910Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS ELONGATED ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS.
A WESTERLY WIND BURST LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE LLCC STILL ATTEMPTING TO
ORGANIZE AND THE MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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#2 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:12 am

It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?
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Re:

#3 Postby metenthusiast » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:15 am

oaba09 wrote:It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?


According to analyses, tropical cyclone development probability is still poor. Here is the link to an IR sat loop of NWPAC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/loop-avn.html

I guess that's the disturbance, the clump of clouds on the lower right corner..
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Re: Re:

#4 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:30 am

metenthusiast wrote:
oaba09 wrote:It doesn't look much yet.....What are the chances of this developing?


According to analyses, tropical cyclone development probability is still poor. Here is the link to an IR sat loop of NWPAC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/loop-avn.html

I guess that's the disturbance, the clump of clouds on the lower right corner..


That's definitely a build up but it still looks too disorganized to form anything.....Let's wait and see...This might be another threat to our country in the coming weeks...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#5 Postby drdavisjr » Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:54 am

I bet by tomorrow we'll be seeing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on this disturbance. It seems to be rapidly organizing...
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:44 pm

Image

Latest
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Re:

#7 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 23, 2009 3:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.
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Re: Re:

#8 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 9:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.


It seems like it's looking to get organized
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Re: Re:

#9 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:18 am

oaba09 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Got potential down the road.


It seems like it's looking to get organized


Yeah. At first I would have said "no" to this one but the western Pacific has been red hot and there's really no adverse conditions for this to develop. Very much worth watching.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#10 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:01 am

Riding just a little bit behind the southwestern edge of a building STR and getting organized rapidly. This could be an impressive cyclone...

Image
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#11 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:10 am

The WPAC has been very busy....
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Re:

#12 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:15 am

oaba09 wrote:The WPAC has been very busy....


Hi oaba09,
More to watch. And even though this one has a lot of potential, climatologically speaking it should miss to your northeast... Let's hope so. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#13 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 1:22 am

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:The WPAC has been very busy....


Hi oaba09,
More to watch. And even though this one has a lot of potential, climatologically speaking it should miss to your northeast... Let's hope so. :wink:


That's what we're hoping too :D We'll be watching this thing very closely..
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#14 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:11 am

Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?
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Re:

#15 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:42 am

drdavisjr wrote:Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?


I know you hate to hear this, but it is WAY too early to tell :)
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:45 am

ozonepete wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:Hi ozonepete. So, looking at this new system, do you think it will recurve; if it even develops?


I know you hate to hear this, but it is WAY too early to tell :)


Yeah, I know :D Thanks!!
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#17 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:53 am

Where is this located I can't tell
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Re:

#18 Postby drdavisjr » Sat Oct 24, 2009 2:57 am

StormingB81 wrote:Where is this located I can't tell


Southeast of the Mariana Islands - in the vicinity of Pohnpei Island
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#19 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 24, 2009 4:55 am

k Thanks. So I guess we may have another storm to closely keep an eye on. Its raining here on Okinawa right now. We are feeling the outter bands. They are saying we should have near 50 mph winds tonight but thats if it turns. We shall see. I hope the power stays on...lol
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 95W

#20 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 24, 2009 5:08 am

Image
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