WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1661 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:43 pm

vbhoutex wrote::uarrow: Why does it make no sense? :uarrow:


Usually a system with an eye like that on a microwave image is stronger than 45 knots.
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#1662 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:44 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1663 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2009 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 12:53:12 N Lon : 110:21:37 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 987.4mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Center Temp : -73.7C Cloud Region Temp : -71.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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#1664 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:52 pm

are the Big 10 replay officials writing the JTWC warnings? Seriously, they are not doing any better than the IMD! (we may see IMD try and do a better job on this in a few days) This has not weakened based upon conventional and microwave imagery
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#1665 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:54 pm

that looks like a 65KT typhoon on visible and a 55KT storm on IR. I'd go with 60KT. Then again, I saw Indiana score the disallowed TD yesterday, so maybe I need thicker glasses...
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1666 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:08 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that looks like a 65KT typhoon on visible and a 55KT storm on IR. I'd go with 60KT. Then again, I tsaw Indiiana score the disallowed TD yesterday, so maybe I need thicker glasses...


Your glasses are probably fine. 60 KTS makes sense to me.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1667 Postby breeze » Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:43 pm

From Accuweather:

Tropical Storm Mirinae will strike Vietnam Monday. Mirinae passed through the Philippines on Saturday, producing flooding and wind damage. More than a dozen deaths in the Philippines are blamed on Mirinae.

Mirinae is expected to make landfall near Tuy Hoa in southern Vietnam. However, heavy rain will affect a wide area. Five to 10 inches of rain is expected across the southern two thirds of Vietnam. There will be an area that receives more than 10 inches. Fortunately, the tropical storm will pass quickly.

Winds of 50-60 mph are expected along the track of Mirinae. Winds of this magnitude are strong enough to produce localized damage. A storm surge of 1-3 feet will produce some coastal flooding.

Like the Philippines, Vietnam is reeling form frequent tropical storms and typhoons this year. Typhoon Ketsana, for example, was blamed for more than 100 deaths in Vietnam after killing almost 1,000 in the Philippines.

The biggest threat posed by Mirinae will be flooding. Rainfall amounts have been heavy across Vietnam in recent weeks. So, it will not take much rain to trigger flooding.


Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&article=8
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#1668 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:11 pm

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1669 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:10 am

02/0230 UTC 13.1N 110.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific

JTWC x 2
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1670 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:18 am

HURAKAN wrote: 02/0230 UTC 13.1N 110.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific

JTWC x 2


ding ding ding we have a winner

seriously, whoever wrote 45KT should not be allowed within 100 light years of a forecasting desk ever again
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#1671 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:25 am

I don't think the 90KT estimate is much better than JTWCs... I can see a 4.0, though it looks like a 3.5+ to me
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#1672 Postby CloudStrider » Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:19 am

We live in NE Cambodia at 13.44 and 107. What kinds of things should we expect from Mirinae. It looks like there is a moisture laden radial arm north of the center that will dump lots of rain on the same wathershed that received Ketsana's deluge a few weeks ago (in the mountains west of Danang). That rain brought much suffering to the tribal people we work with living along the rivers of NE Cambodia. Should we expect something similar?
Or will the SW movement attenuate some of the effects where we live?
Finally, where did the T5.0 come from (what site?)
Thanks for your help. This site helped us warn people before Ketsana. Most of the people we work with have no phones, TVs or internet!!
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Re:

#1673 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:13 am

CloudStrider wrote:We live in NE Cambodia at 13.44 and 107. What kinds of things should we expect from Mirinae. It looks like there is a moisture laden radial arm north of the center that will dump lots of rain on the same wathershed that received Ketsana's deluge a few weeks ago (in the mountains west of Danang). That rain brought much suffering to the tribal people we work with living along the rivers of NE Cambodia. Should we expect something similar?
Or will the SW movement attenuate some of the effects where we live?
Finally, where did the T5.0 come from (what site?)
Thanks for your help. This site helped us warn people before Ketsana. Most of the people we work with have no phones, TVs or internet!!


I think the T 5.0 came from an agency called satellite services division (SSD). This equates to a 90KT storm. I am getting a lower number given the asymmetric nature of the deepest convection (this does not appear to be an embedded center pattern to me, but more of a banding pattern), and there is no visible eye on the IR, which is typical of about a 4.5 using a banding pattern

What is the topography of your area? That will make a big difference in terms of rainfall. I'll be up for about 20-30 more minutes so I may be able to answer your question before I head off to bed, but I would need to know if it is flat, or mountainous to give a rough estimate (I did not run the MM5 for this cyclone, so I won't have any high-res model rainfall forecasts)
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1674 Postby CloudStrider » Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:30 am

Thanks for your help. Most of our province is a mountainous plateau with an elevation of 1000+ feet surrounded by two major tributaries of the Mekong, one river to the north and one to the south. Both rivers having their source in the central highlands of VN (one near Kontum and the other near Ban Me Thuot). Ketsana caused the worst flooding in memory on the Sesan River. We're getting some light rain right now (7:34 UTC +7) and the eastern sky is glowering.
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#1675 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:44 am

IF the mountain range is to your west, then you may have downslope flow, which may reduce the rain. it looks as if your area may be just south of the center. However, if the mountain rang eends up north of the landfall position, the mountains create enhanced vertical motion, which could produce heavy rains and flooding.

It will all depend upon whether or not the center passed nroth or south of you. Winds should not be a major concern since you are far inland.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1676 Postby CloudStrider » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:31 am

Looks like the center will pass south of us. There is a 3000 foot elevation range between us and VN to the east, but only decreasing elevation down to the Mekong to our west.

Thanks for your help!
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (23W)

#1677 Postby beaufort12 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:25 am

These last few messages show what a great site S2k is and that how it is much more than just another weather site. In this particular instance, kudos to Derek Ortt. Kudos can go out to many more as well. As we have seen in the past few weeks, many people have contributed valuable information to people without access to local information. It makes me feel good to know I am a member of such a great community. It costs money to keep this site maintained. Consider my membership contribution renewed and thanks to all who keep us informed on the weather all around the world.
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#1678 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:17 am

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#1679 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:18 am

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WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 030
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 109.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 109.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.3N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.6N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 109.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHEAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WHICH REFLECTED STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65
KNOTS BASED ON A WEAK EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 020003Z SSMIS IMAGE.
AS OF 0600Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CLIMBED TO A 4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THREE HOURS PRIOR, KNES WAS AS HIGH AS A 5.0 OR 90
KNOTS. THE TYPHOON WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE VIETNAM-CAMBODIA
BORDER AROUND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN
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#1680 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:39 am

1500Z WARNING

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.0N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 108.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER 020600Z MIRINAE MADE LANDFALL
OVER VIETNAM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPECTED TO
DISSOLVE OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REMNANT VORTICITY MAY
TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF THAILAND, AS SOME CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SUGGEST, BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

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