WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

[oaba09]

ecmwf has it over us by monday

path? this will definitely bring rains....

[drdavisjr]

looks like north luzon on monday and central luzon on tuesday - just a low I think from the look of it

[drdavisjr]

Hello Moderators, good morning...I think this one has been renamed Invest 97W

[oaba09]

Hello Moderators, good morning...I think this one has been renamed Invest 97W

Yup...some sites already have this as 97W

[drdavisjr]

Starting to get organized??

[Kingarabian]

Starting to get organized??

Looks like it. Convection wise... it looks lesser then the previous picture.

[drdavisjr]

I just hope it's moving to fast to spin up before getting to us...

[metenthusiast]

Latest

[oaba09]

Latest

It's really building up now

[metenthusiast]

It's really building up now

Looks like it, though it also seems to be a remnant of Mirinae... Doesn't have quite a definite spin yet on my observation...

[Crostorm]

[ozonepete]

It's really building up now

Looks like it, though it also seems to be a remnant of Mirinae... Doesn't have quite a definite spin yet on my observation...

Hi met. Though could see why you'd say it, this is not a remnant of Mirinae. It's another disturbance that formed along the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) that stretches east to west just north of the equator. Sometimes they break free and start moving west-northwest - that's how most of your typhoons develop.

BTW, looks to me like it's getting mid-level rotation now and some decent convection. The microwave satellites are showing some banding. At this point I'd say it has at least a 60-40 chance to develop. I checked and it's got low shear around and ahead of it, quite good mid level moisture, and good SSTs.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Fair

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6N 132.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310919Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAD INDICATED A
WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
CONFIRMED BY AN OBSERVATION, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWING 18 KNOTS WITH A
1008.2 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. CONVECTION HAS ONLY BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY DURING NIGHTTIME
COOLING PHASES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT BY A MID-LATITUDE JET
THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
CURRENTLY AT MODERATE VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A
WELL DEFINED LLCC, BUT MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

[ozonepete]

Upgraded to Fair

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.6N 132.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310919Z QUIKSCAT PASS HAD INDICATED A
WELL ORGANIZED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
CONFIRMED BY AN OBSERVATION, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWING 18 KNOTS WITH A
1008.2 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. CONVECTION HAS ONLY BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY DURING NIGHTTIME
COOLING PHASES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT BY A MID-LATITUDE JET
THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
CURRENTLY AT MODERATE VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A
WELL DEFINED LLCC, BUT MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

Aha! Here we go again. I said 60-40 which I guess equates with fair, but now that they say fair, I say good.

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[ozonepete]

The 12Z runs of GFS, CMC and NOGAPS do not develop it, but it was too early at that time. Be interesting to see what the 00Z runs say if they get initialized with a closed low.

BTW, as far as track goes, it's in a somewhat weak steering current, but the stronger it gets the more west it will go. If it takes too long to develop, it would probably just clip NE Luzon.

[ozonepete]

Looking good.

Uh-oh!

[breeze]

Wow, check out this image with TS Mirinae moving out of the Philippines and 97W trying to develop.

[Macrocane]

97 W looks much better than Mirinae at least convection wise.

[ozonepete]

Wow, check out this image with TS Mirinae moving out of the Philippines and 97W trying to develop.

Great image, breeze! They look to be about 1000 n miles apart. At 900 nm two tropical cyclones would ordinarily start the Fujiwhara. In this case, with Marinae moving southwestward now they'll never get close enough. More importantly, they wouldn't do it anyway, because the disruptive effects of the Philippines land mass lies between them.