WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

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Re: Re:

#121 Postby metenthusiast » Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:39 am

metenthusiast wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Latest


Yup, this way to the south from the last ATCF track released by jtwc. I wonder why they're not upgrading it yet... :roll: Ah well, I'm still a novice in this field and maybe they're seeing something that I'm missing. But let me tell you that that SW movements is really disturbing... :roll:


Wait, I take that away. My doubts on jtwc, I mean. For it has already been explained... hahah :D
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#122 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:04 pm

I can understand the reasoning behind that SW track and weakening (though I do not necessarily agree). What is expected that the NE Monsoon surge and its associated shear and cool air advection will weaken the system which means that the low level steering will become predominate and that flow will be from the NE. Such tracks most definitely do occur and for that very reason though usually this time of year they usually occur in the South China Sea where the NE Monsoon becomes established by now rather than east of Luzon since the NE Monsoon becomes established there usually in December.

Steve
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#123 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:15 pm

PAGASA

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#124 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:19 pm

My question is why only Pagasa is having warnings but JMA and JTWC has not done so?
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#125 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:34 pm

The JMA are issuing warnings on this as a 30kt TD. They don't issue full advisories unless they expect it to become a TS within 24 hours.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 17.0N 123.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#126 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:My question is why only Pagasa is having warnings but JMA and JTWC has not done so?


I'm guessing that they were thinking it would get stronger than it did and they didn't want to be caught off guard. So they were basically playing it safe. And there is nothing wrong with that.

It also was within their designated area of responsibility, at which point they feel they should be the primary source of updates for the Philippines even if JTWC and JMA don't feel it's a big threat.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#127 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:43 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: Thanks Peter and ozonopete for the clarifications.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97W

#128 Postby P.K. » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:43 pm

Checking the other agencies warning on this the CMA have a 15m/s TD (1006hPa) and the HKO have a 25kt TD (1004hPa).
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#129 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:54 pm

Guess what,JTWC is now issuing its first warning.NRL changed header to 24W.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#130 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:Guess what,JTWC is now issuing its first warning.NRL changed header to 24W.


I guess they want to cover their "A" also. :)
After all, even a weak depression can cause devastating rains.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#131 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:26 pm

JTWC 18:00Z warning:

Over Metro Manila.

Image

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/012151Z NOV 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 15.4N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.1N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 123.7E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 012151Z
NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012200 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#132 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:29 pm

This is a general announcement for everyone reading this thread since most appear to no be reading the announcement
posted above. Please go to the announcements section above and read the thread titled "ALL MEMBERS PLEASE READ.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#133 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:26 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#134 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:25 pm

Not looking too good, and the expected daytime drop in convection as the cloud tops warm is just beginning...

Image
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#135 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:50 pm

ozonepete wrote:Not looking too good, and the expected daytime drop in convection as the cloud tops warm is just beginning...

Image


This will still bring rains though.......
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#136 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:57 pm

This will still bring rains though.......


And is not moving as quickly as Mirinae did.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#137 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
This will still bring rains though.......


And is not moving as quickly as Mirinae did.


Yup....I believe it's moving at around 11 kph...that's too slow.....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#138 Postby dhoeze » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:44 pm

Hi guys,

Any map I can see the cold surge of the Northeast Monsoon?
Thanks.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#139 Postby neil40 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:47 pm

ozonepete wrote:Not looking too good, and the expected daytime drop in convection as the cloud tops warm is just beginning...

Image



Good Morning,

The "pattern" at the upper-right, is that a part of 24w?
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#140 Postby dhoeze » Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:05 pm

dhoeze wrote:Hi guys,

Any map I can see the cold surge of the Northeast Monsoon?
Thanks.


Also would the poleward movement affect this "Tino"?
[img]Image[/img]
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