WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#161 Postby dhoeze » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:37 pm

ozonepete wrote:
dhoeze wrote:Hi guys,

Any map I can see the cold surge of the Northeast Monsoon?
Thanks.


Sure. Look at this InfraRed satellite loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-avn.html

Notice the whitish clouds rushig southward over the water between China and Japan towards the Philippines and also spilling westward towards Hainan and VietNam. That's very cool polar air moving over very warm water. As it does so it gets moistened by the warm moist ocean air and gets chilled and forms fog and low clouds. You can't see the cold air coming down over the land as easily, but if you watch China for instance, you can see it turning grey and whitish (signifies colder air) during the nighttime hours especially. Look at the color key at the bottom. Warmest (blacks) to the left, and coldest (reds) to the right.


Thanks so much Pete!! (adding this up to my favorites link).

hey pete,

Since 24W already lost its power, is the formation behind it be a concern for us here in Philippines?
How do I report it, is it just a heavy rain and thunderstorms? just a bit worried because of its size
and because of its water content.

You've been so much help.
Thanks
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#162 Postby neil40 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:38 pm

ozonepete wrote:
neil40 wrote:
Thanks!

So, the rain content of that upper-right pattern is more prominent than 24w at the lower-left?


Yes. The more oranges and reds the stronger the showers and thunderstorms.



Thanks! :D
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#163 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:46 pm

It's important to understand the windfield structure of the NE Monsoon. Unlike the SW Monsoon which is deep SW flow overtopped by NE flow in the high troposphere, the NE monsoon has a low level moist layer of cool air modified by the warm water extending up to about the H7 or H6 level whereas at H5 the flow is SW and dry. In Luzon, the rainfall from the NE monsoon is very orographic and limited to the east slopes of the eastern mountains with dry downslope flow elsewhere. During strong surges the NE flow will deepen enough to bring very light rain to the normally dry sections of Luzon. In the Visayas, the flow is generally unimpeded and frequent showers occur there. In Mindanao the air is more unstable, moisture is deeper and the flow is coming out from under the upper High and beginning to modify into a mT airmass.

Steve
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#164 Postby oaba09 » Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:50 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:It's important to understand the windfield structure of the NE Monsoon. Unlike the SW Monsoon which is deep SW flow overtopped by NE flow in the high troposphere, the NE monsoon has a low level moist layer of cool air modified by the warm water extending up to about the H7 or H6 level whereas at H5 the flow is SW and dry. In Luzon, the rainfall from the NE monsoon is very orographic and limited to the east slopes of the eastern mountains with dry downslope flow elsewhere. During strong surges the NE flow will deepen enough to bring very light rain to the normally dry sections of Luzon. In the Visayas, the flow is generally unimpeded and frequent showers occur there. In Mindanao the air is more unstable, moisture is deeper and the flow is coming out from under the upper High and beginning to modify into a mT airmass.

Steve


Very informative steve! thanks!
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#165 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:01 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:The following is based upon typhoon climatology and is not a forecast:

In reference to Invest 98W, it is extremely rare for a November typhoon to hit Okinawa-especially one that starts that far out. The Marianas, on the other hand, can get clobbered. The most intense typhoon ever on Guam was STY Karen in November 1962. As for Luzon, storms starting that far out usually have gained enough latitude in the Philippine Sea to recurve before reaching Luzon.

Steve


Thanks, Steve. You are the climo maven, and I've learned a lot from you. Thanks for all of your great input.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#166 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:09 pm

dhoeze wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
dhoeze wrote:Hi guys,

Any map I can see the cold surge of the Northeast Monsoon?
Thanks.


Sure. Look at this InfraRed satellite loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-avn.html

Notice the whitish clouds rushig southward over the water between China and Japan towards the Philippines and also spilling westward towards Hainan and VietNam. That's very cool polar air moving over very warm water. As it does so it gets moistened by the warm moist ocean air and gets chilled and forms fog and low clouds. You can't see the cold air coming down over the land as easily, but if you watch China for instance, you can see it turning grey and whitish (signifies colder air) during the nighttime hours especially. Look at the color key at the bottom. Warmest (blacks) to the left, and coldest (reds) to the right.


Thanks so much Pete!! (adding this up to my favorites link).

hey pete,

Since 24W already lost its power, is the formation behind it be a concern for us here in Philippines?
How do I report it, is it just a heavy rain and thunderstorms? just a bit worried because of its size
and because of its water content.

You've been so much help.
Thanks


It's not certain. It always helps to watch the satellite loops carefully to see if these clusters are changing direction and getting closer than the forecasts said. And you can develop an instinct after years of watching. But always pay attention to the forecasts and trust them more than what you see on a satellite loop.

As for this cluster, it looks like most of it will miss Luzon. I don't see anything severe or unusual yet.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#167 Postby dhoeze » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:02 am

Thanks pete!
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#168 Postby Infdidoll » Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:09 am

Nice predictions, predictors! It all went exactly how you said it would...for now, the winds have died down, here...but still looks like rainy skies. You should see the periwinkle blue of a rainy sky in the distance across the horizon of aqua-green water from the rough seas the past few days...the two colors together are striking.

It's also chilly out here after that front moved through and I'm cursing all the people who told me that I should only pack 3 years worth of SUMMER clothes when moving here.
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#169 Postby oaba09 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:43 am

I'm seeing the remains of 24W right now outside.....It's nothing...just a few clouds...not even enough to bring rains....
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#170 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:57 am

the cool NE winds killed TD 24. haha. i never thought this NE monsoon can get rid of the cyclones in our area. however, i remembered some strong typhoons that formed during the onset of the NE monsoon. Chebi and Durian both formed when the northeast monsoon is already blowing, but they didn't show reaction or some weakening due to the cold air mass brought by this wind system. they seem to move west-southwest, that's why areas from southern luzon down to visayas-mindanao areas often receives storms coming from the pacific ocean.

i think if a cyclone moves north, it will be affected by the cold air from the northeast and weaken it, but if a cyclone turns below the north, then it will not ingest any cold air that will weaken its circulation.
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#171 Postby Weather_boi » Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:15 am

dexterlabio wrote:the cool NE winds killed TD 24. haha. i never thought this NE monsoon can get rid of the cyclones in our area. however, i remembered some strong typhoons that formed during the onset of the NE monsoon. Chebi and Durian both formed when the northeast monsoon is already blowing, but they didn't show reaction or some weakening due to the cold air mass brought by this wind system. they seem to move west-southwest, that's why areas from southern luzon down to visayas-mindanao areas often receives storms coming from the pacific ocean.

i think if a cyclone moves north, it will be affected by the cold air from the northeast and weaken it, but if a cyclone turns below the north, then it will not ingest any cold air that will weaken its circulation.


2 thumbs up dex! I am in total agreement with you :lol:
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#172 Postby Aslkahuna » Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:45 pm

The NE Monsoon is strongest in the SCS because of the much shorter overwater trajectory until you get into very low latitudes. Temperatures along the Vietnam coast north of Nha Trang can drop into 50's with low clouds and drizzle when the monsoon is strong-SFO type weather. After you've been in the Tropics, you become acclimated and soon learn the truth of the saying that "Night is the Winter of the Tropics". If youy think things are cold now, wait until Christmas season and beyond when Manila goes below 20C at night with 5C in Baguio and 12-15C in the Central Valley (I was working the night Clark set a new low temperature record of 13C). Of course, by March, April, and May the Luzon Valleys more resemble Tucson temperature wise as the Trade flow takes over, the Sun is overhead as is the STH.

Steve
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Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

#173 Postby oaba09 » Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:25 pm

NE Monsoon seems to be affecting our weather right now....Very cloudy outside at this moment....
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#174 Postby oaba09 » Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:33 am

Wow...The rains has been non stop here all day..Looking at the satellite loops, there seems to be a weather system affecting the WHOLE COUNTRY right now...Is this part of the NE monsoon?
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