#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2009 5:45 am
WTIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.1N 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 110424Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN INDIA COAST, JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI.
MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NNE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS
WITH SLP NEAR 995MB SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 110426Z ASCAT IMAGE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
AND SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 04A
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO FURTHER
LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO AND TC-LAPS MODELS ARE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND TRACK 04A ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN
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