ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

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GOODSTUFF
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Re: Re:

#41 Postby GOODSTUFF » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:56 pm

ozonepete wrote:
GOODSTUFF wrote:BIG HAT TIP FOR YOU GUYS

ya'll have made my morning reporting easy

02:00 Z Pipavav, wind avg 20 knots, rain just started

very short chop (5 sec) and confused due to the strong currents

cyclone warnings have been issued

again, thanks


Where are you, dude?!?! I'm assuming you're in port! But where?


we were at the main port Pipavav (where the storm is going to make land fall)
However, port control just kick everybody off the dock
we are steaming to the next port west, Jafarabad
have to drop the hook and ride it out

rock and roll time
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Any port in a storm will do - CHEERS !

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Re: Re:

#42 Postby ozonepete » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:45 pm

GOODSTUFF wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
GOODSTUFF wrote:BIG HAT TIP FOR YOU GUYS

ya'll have made my morning reporting easy

02:00 Z Pipavav, wind avg 20 knots, rain just started

very short chop (5 sec) and confused due to the strong currents

cyclone warnings have been issued

again, thanks


Where are you, dude?!?! I'm assuming you're in port! But where?


we were at the main port Pipavav (where the storm is going to make land fall)
However, port control just kick everybody off the dock
we are steaming to the next port west, Jafarabad
have to drop the hook and ride it out

rock and roll time


Well keep us posted but stay safe, dude!
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#43 Postby ozonepete » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:56 pm

comin' ashore...

Image
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:13 am

Image

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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:14 am

Image

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#46 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:16 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.3N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.6N 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE
TO A RECENT NORTHEASTWARD JOG IN THE STORM TRACK. A 102338Z TMI 37H
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE INITIAL FORECAST POSITION. THE RECENT
STORM MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ERODE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
HAS BEGUN TO CONTRACT SLIGHTLY. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS MOVED EAST, INSTEAD OF POLEWARD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED,
THE CYCLONE REMAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PREVENTING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. IN FACT,
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED TO 50 KNOTS, AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND INDICATIONS OF A FLEDGLING EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY CONFIRM. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED INTENSIFICATION. THIS FORECAST CALLS
FOR LANDFALL NEAR MUMBAI WITHIN 12 HOURS, THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE STORM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER INLAND. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, WHICH DOES NOT ADEQUATELY CAPTURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ON THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT OR CURRENT
STORM MOTION, SUPPORTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROUGH MAY FLATTEN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST,
WHICH COULD INDUCE A TRACK CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THAT
CASE, THE FORECAST PERIOD WOULD HAVE TO BE EXTENDED SINCE THE
CYCLONE WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LONGER TIME PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2009 5:45 am

WTIO31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.9N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.1N 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 110424Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN INDIA COAST, JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI.
MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NNE WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS
WITH SLP NEAR 995MB SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 110426Z ASCAT IMAGE, IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MUMBAI SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
AND SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 04A
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS DUE TO FURTHER
LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO AND TC-LAPS MODELS ARE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND TRACK 04A ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:12 am

JTWC Final Warning

WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (PHYAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 73.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 73.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.0N 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 73.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111225Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS
DIMINISHED RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A PASSED
ABOUT 30NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI WHICH REPORTED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 993MB
(CORRESPONDING TO A 40-45 KNOT INTENSITY). CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE RISING SLP (998MB) AND LIGHT WINDS. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND; THE UKMO IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER, TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THE OVER-LAND TRACK AND IS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:09 pm

Image

Short-lived storm
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Re:

#50 Postby ozonepete » Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:03 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Short-lived storm


In November everyone's got shear problems! (Well in the N Hemisphere,anyway.)
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#51 Postby GOODSTUFF » Thu Nov 12, 2009 6:13 am

Phyan turn inshore just in time for me

Image

Image

Thanks guys for your help
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#52 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:14 am

You're welcome. And thanks - it's not often that we get a real wind report from an Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone!
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

#53 Postby Macrocane » Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:34 am

It's good to have someone in that part of the world so we can have a better idea of the impact and observations of the cyclones.
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Re: Re:

#54 Postby Cookie » Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:39 am

ozonepete wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Image

Short-lived storm


In November everyone's got shear problems! (Well in the N Hemisphere,anyway.)


shear dose that hard work so you dont have to. :lol:
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